A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
800. xcool
12z GFS hit middle tx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Impressive cloud tops in the -80˚C range can be noted in the W/SW quadrant of 96L.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Which direction(s) has less favorable conditions for 96L to develop in and why?
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Quoting btwntx08:

oh no not again lol

Well, it is Hurricane Season and right now N MX or S TX look like the likely target. As always, stay tuned :o).
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting Tazmanian:



how many time do we need too see that lol


About as many times as you mention JFV taz.

anything else sport?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Are they still collecting oil or is it shut down due to the weather?

I would be a little nervous with 95L over me out in the open water. Even thought it isn't a TD, it is still more than your afternoon thunderstorm.
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Quoting Weather456:
If anyone missed it

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected


Very good outlook and update. I enjoyed it.
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Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN




how many time do we need too see that lol
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
So you think it is more organized than the NHC thinks ?


Looking at the visible images, the system appears well organize, its circulation however is not as define but it deserves a higher percentage especially if we are looking at 48 hrs as in the NHC TWO.
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791. xcool
btwntx08 (
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Quoting Dakster:


And if it is a roof tile, it will leave a little more than a mark...
A large dent?..lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
Quoting futuremet:


Yes, I am thinking the same thing for the moment. The 12Z CMC seems a little too bullish with the trough.
Agreed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting xcool:
12Z EURO landfall Brownsville
What intensity are we looking at in terms of millibars?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041731
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE WITH A SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 115 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH
OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND ON MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KIMBERLAIN

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
96L has the capabilities of rivaling Alex if it goes north of his track. Similar to how Emily track south of Dennis and Felix tracked south of Dean. And the highest heat content is in the central GOM

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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
A shame that we don't have recon today cause 95L could have easily been at least a subtropical tc. It also bothers me when most of you all say that it's dead and want to worry about 96L that is not going to bother anybody for days when there is system that is going to impact LA tomorrow. How can you say it's dead when it's looks the best that it's looked since it was tagged an invest ?



no need for one will you give 95L a rest its done it overe 95L is RIP gone it had it ch but nevere made it so put 95L too rest and move on too 96L plz
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So you think it is more organized than the NHC thinks ?
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INV/96/L
MARK
17.1N/81.4W
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95L looks like a mini TS and I think 96L will be a northerly Alex
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
A shame that we don't have recon today cause 95L could have easily been at least a subtropical tc. It also bothers me when most of you all say that it's dead and want to worry about 96L that is not going to bother anybody for days when there is system that is going to impact LA tomorrow. How can you say it's dead when it's looks the best that it's looked since it was tagged an invest ?


Because it looked much better yesterday early afternoon. It's a very small convective cluster that would not have garnered an ST dvorak number of higher than 1.0 at best.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
How can I block content from a certain site so it does not transfer

For some reason the lsu site is making my browser take forever to load the page
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
If anyone missed it

July Tropical Weather Outlook - Active July Expected
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
There is no such thing as a weak Hurricane.

If it's a Hurricane and a Shingle hits you at 74mph,its still gonna leave a mark.


They called Hurricane for a reason.



And if it is a roof tile, it will leave a little more than a mark...
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775. xcool
12Z EURO landfall Brownsville
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
My current thinking takes it through the Yucatan channel, thereafter it becomes uncertain. But I am leaning more towards a Texas event.


Yes, I am thinking the same thing for the moment. The 12Z CMC seems a little too bullish with the trough.
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773. xcool
I THINK 96L further N
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
A shame that we don't have recon today cause 95L could have easily been at least a subtropical tc. It also bothers me when most of you all say that it's dead and want to worry about 96L that is not going to bother anybody for days when there is system that is going to impact LA tomorrow. How can you say it's dead when it's looks the best that it's looked since it was tagged an invest ?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
What would you put it at ?


40-50%
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26C depth Isotherm

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
It isn't that the ridge is weaker this time around, is that it is located further east.
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Quoting Weather456:
30% not enough

Agree. I think it should be at 40% or 50%. But then again, Kimberlain wrote in part the outlook. :)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
766. xcool
12Z EURO landfall Brownsville
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


And we're back to the same buoy that we were at when Alex was developing. Unbelievable lol.

The fact that we already have a code orange just a couple days after Alex means that we are entering the real season, Alex wasn't a sporadic early storm, he was the beginning of a long consistent onslaught...



93L was weak at the time it seem like 96L is stronger
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I hope NOTHING hits the Gulf until that mess is cleaned up !!But weather is tough to predict !!
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There is no such thing as a weak Hurricane.

If it's a Hurricane and a Shingle hits you at 74mph,its still gonna leave a mark.


They called Hurricane for a reason.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Weather456:
30% not enough

What would you put it at ?
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Quoting Levi32:
Back later.
Link ....This looks unsettling...The NAM model..
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
My SWAG is for C. Cat 1-2 Hurricane.

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hmm

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Quoting futuremet:


I do not think this is the case. The ridge is not as strong as it was during Alex.
My current thinking takes it through the Yucatan channel, thereafter it becomes uncertain. But I am leaning more towards a Texas event.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
30% not enough

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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


And we're back to the same buoy that we were at when Alex was developing. Unbelievable lol.

The fact that we already have a code orange just a couple days after Alex means that we are entering the real season, Alex wasn't a sporadic early storm, he was the beginning of a long consistent onslaught...
Indeed.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
754. xcool
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Quoting cooldayr:
Ok poll time

Do you think invest 96 will

A) fall apart
B) become a tropical depression
C) become a tropical storm
D) become a weak hurricane
E) become a major hurricane


Hmm this is hard, probably borderline C/D. Either strong tropical storm or weak hurricane if it develops. I'll have to go with C though.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting StormW:


Looking where they have the "center" located for initialization, I would say the channel.


I agree. I will go by with whatever you say stormW.
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Gulf Of Mexico - Rainbow Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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