A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting btwntx08:

what gfdl the lastest one kills it in 12 hrs lol



i think it safe too say we can drop that one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Hope 96L doesn't prove to be another "Ike" for Texas...
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96L organizing. Just saw a 43 mph wind gust here. Winds fluctuating between 30 and 38 mph.
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95L/96L www.hurricanecity.com/closeup
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
I think LA, but I don't know squat.
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Quoting Drakoen:
96L, based on the models, won't spend nearly as much time over the Yucatan like Alex.
If it does a track similar to what the BAMM/BAMS depicts it may not even weaken overland.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
dr m is on Vacation and look 96L takes off
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
So is everyone figuring TX for 96L or could it possibly go to LA?
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I didn't know about points for invests. Cool!


We use a Table with 3 Judges with Cards..


Simon always Low balls Invests
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
96L beginning to consolidate on the void of convection in the center of the system. Also, some very cold cloud tops continue to pop in the W/SW quadrant.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Dome C, Antarctica
Unknown
-115 °F


its -115 be low 0 right now there i dont think i have evere seen it that cold there be for


now back too 96L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
12z HWRF did a much better job than the 12z GFDL, which was too far north.
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NHC put a floater over 95L
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456 read your outlook, and by the looks of the tropics I guess you will be right again.
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96L, based on the models, won't spend nearly as much time over the Yucatan like Alex.
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Quoting Patrap:
Okay Folks..

Im out for Vacation,

..Dr Carvers on watch...

Hurry Up Honey!!






pat i would re move that not worth geting a banned
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Really nasty thunderstorms overhead here in Brickell.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm beginning to some into agreement with the 18z BAMM, although I still think it should be more towards the right.



Me too also GFDL put track to North Texas.
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Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...





Okay Folks..

Im out for Vacation,

..Dr Carvers on watch...

Hurry Up Honey!!




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
However the CHS wx discussion does say how unusual the dry trough is----have never seen a statement quite like this:

THE 12Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...FEATURING
PWATS ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH AND A K INDEX OF -25...A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 115F. EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY.


Ummm. 115F? Ouch. I hope you have A/C.
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878. xcool
models keep right soon
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
877. txjac
It's times like this that I wish I had a beard ...need something to stroke as I ponder ...and I'm a female
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96L is geting strong fast un like 93L at the same time
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Weather, check my post 837 . It will refresh. Winds at 45 mph here now.


visible imagery support the obs....there was low level clouds noted racing from southeast towards the eastern most cayman islands...
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Quoting Weather456:
I got 35 points for 96L and that excludes many things.
I was being conservative on the numbers too. If I count again I'll probably go around the 39 point threshold.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
12z ECMWF may be a little too far south if the center of 96L consolidates farther north, but it illustrates nicely how the ridge staying strong over the SE U.S. protects the north gulf coast.

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Alex part 2 on the way well there be a part 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Gotcha.So we just have to wait and see if and when that takes place.
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Quoting Levi32:
The steering currents won't remain this northerly for too long. The ridge is farther east than during Alex which puts Texas right in the risk area, but I doubt it will get farther east than Houston with the ridge centered over the SE US.


Houston is far enough...We are about 2 hours from there.
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Quoting Weather456:
I got 35 points for 96L and that excludes many things.


I tallied same..


The numbers denote the obvious
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
I'm beginning to some into agreement with the 18z BAMM, although I still think it should be more towards the right.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Hurricanes101, post 778. In IE, you can go to tools --> Internet Options --> Security --> Restricted Sites and add the URL there. Keep in mind that you will need to remove it in the future should you want to go back to that page and see if they have stopped embedding content that either is too large or processor intensive. Hope that helps
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I counted 35.


Alrighty...

It is starting to look like it is coming together on the sat pictures.
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Quoting Drakoen:
BAMM suite further north


Noticed dat as well..

Hopefully thats not gonna be a trend, But we ALL must watch this one.

Itza Bad seed.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting xcool:





WHXX01 KWBC 041832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 83.5W 18.6N 85.3W 20.6N 86.9W 22.2N 88.4W
BAMD 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.8W 19.0N 86.0W 20.0N 87.0W
BAMM 16.7N 83.5W 18.2N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 21.0N 87.1W
LBAR 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.7W 19.2N 86.1W 20.3N 87.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 89.8W 25.7N 92.9W 26.7N 96.6W 27.5N 100.7W
BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 90.4W 21.4N 93.3W 21.5N 96.7W
BAMM 22.3N 88.3W 23.9N 91.2W 24.9N 95.0W 25.9N 99.4W
LBAR 21.3N 89.1W 23.6N 92.2W 25.9N 95.1W 27.7N 98.6W
SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$




same track has Alex
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I counted 35.


35 it is here is list if anyone wants to add em up

REQUIREMENTS FOR Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert

If a system gets 35 to 38 points, a TCFA may be issued depending on Dvorak trends, and if a system gets 39 points or more a TCFA should be issued.

Surface
Condition Points
A circulation is evident using visible satellite, shortwave infrared, microwave imagery or QuikSCAT/Windsat ambiguities 3 points
A circulation has been evident for at least 24 hours 5 points
A westerly surface- or gradient-level wind of 5 kt that is within 200 nm (370 km, 230 mi) south of the centre of the disturbance 5 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 20 kt 2 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 25 kt 3 points
Any wind associated with the system is at least 30 kt 4 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has reported had a pressure drop of 2 mb over 24 hours 3 points
A weather station within 200 nm of the system has had a pressure drop of 3 mb over 24 hours 4 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is less than 1010 to 1009 mb 3 points
The estimated MSLP of the system is 1008 mb or less 4 points

500 mb height
Condition Points
There is evidence of at least an inverted trough 2 points
There is evidence of a closed circulation in the system 4 points

200 mb height
Condition Points
Westerly flow of at least 15 kt over the disturbance -4 points
There is evidence of anticyclonic outflow over the centre of the disturbance 4 points
Easterly flow of at most 20 kt over the disturbance 3 points

Sea surface temperature
Condition Points
The sea surface temperature is 26 Celsius (78.8 Fahrenheit) or higher 3 points

Satellite data
Condition Points
The system has persisted for at least 24 hours 3 points
The system has persisted for at least 48 hours 4 points
The system has persisted for at least 72 hours 5 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.0 to T1.5 from all three agencies (TAFB, SAB, AFWA) 3 points
The system has a Dvorak classification of T1.5 to T2.0 from all three agencies 5 points
The Dvorak final-T number has decreased by T0.5 to T1.0 from two or more agencies -2 points

Miscellaneous
Condition Points
The cloud system is north (or south) of 5 degrees latitude 3 points
The tropical system is within 72 hours of reaching a Department of Defense resource 3 points
The cloud system center and the satellite centre fixes for the system are within 2 degrees of each other 2 points
**********************************************************
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The steering currents won't remain this northerly for too long. The ridge is farther east than during Alex which puts Texas right in the risk area, but I doubt it will get farther east than Houston with the ridge centered over the SE US.
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I got 35 points for 96L and that excludes many things.
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i smell red at 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115243
BAMM suite further north
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96L is in Perfect SST's and well, the flue is open.

96L MSFC NASA viewer
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
855. xcool





WHXX01 KWBC 041832
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1832 UTC SUN JUL 4 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100704 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100704 1800 100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 83.5W 18.6N 85.3W 20.6N 86.9W 22.2N 88.4W
BAMD 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.8W 19.0N 86.0W 20.0N 87.0W
BAMM 16.7N 83.5W 18.2N 84.7W 19.6N 85.9W 21.0N 87.1W
LBAR 16.7N 83.5W 18.0N 84.7W 19.2N 86.1W 20.3N 87.6W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 51KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 46KTS 44KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100706 1800 100707 1800 100708 1800 100709 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.7N 89.8W 25.7N 92.9W 26.7N 96.6W 27.5N 100.7W
BAMD 20.7N 88.0W 21.4N 90.4W 21.4N 93.3W 21.5N 96.7W
BAMM 22.3N 88.3W 23.9N 91.2W 24.9N 95.0W 25.9N 99.4W
LBAR 21.3N 89.1W 23.6N 92.2W 25.9N 95.1W 27.7N 98.6W
SHIP 56KTS 66KTS 73KTS 73KTS
DSHP 50KTS 60KTS 66KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.7N LONCUR = 83.5W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 15.8N LONM12 = 81.9W DIRM12 = 291DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 15.0N LONM24 = 79.9W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
I think 96L is starting to consolidate now, I see what I call the COC around 17N/81.5W could be wrong though.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
Quoting Dakster:


How many points now?
I counted 35.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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