A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Convection is consolidating nicely with 96L, and towards the east with time, which is bad news for the north gulf coast if the center tends to stay to the northeast with the convection and head more towards the northeast tip of the Yucatan or even the Yucatan channel.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Taz, do you just read the other blog comments or do you actually look at the NHC satellite frames? 95L looks like it is improving & not going away.



95L is a non Tropic low
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Guys I still think that the real COC is well East of the BEST track plots and also stormpetrol the way I am looking at it you are off by a bit I am seeing it at 16.5N/17N 79.5/80W BTW did you recive my mail Stormpetrol

Yep Got it Bro, Thanks looks we're in for a long 2 days or so. Weather up this side is very stormy!!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
WOW Click on the link for real time info latest wind gust in the last hour at Owen Roberts Airport 49.5mph.


Wow good find mate
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Quoting Levi32:


That has me concerned. It is probably the most amplified and vigorous wave we have seen approach the islands yet this year.


Yea Levi....we are going to get some showers from this one!

But it has favorable conditions ahead so it needs to be watch.

They are taking off one behind the other.
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Quoting cg2916:
Code orange on 96L!



It bugs me that we have a floater on 95L bu not 96L. I e-mailed the SSD earlier.


what is the floater? What does that mean?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting cg2916:
Code orange on 96L!



It bugs me that we have a floater on 95L bu not 96L. I e-mailed the SSD earlier.


Its in works.

The commands take a while to work thru the cue.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Savannah, Grand Cayman.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
See new bloggers, THIS is what happens when the Doc takes a vacation.

GOES-E Satellite loop of Caribbean
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


yep. Just had 43 mph at my home.


IMpressive Kman..

..your East of her right?
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting muddertracker:
Would Dovark present the same way for a warm core and a cold core disturbance?


In the Convective Rings ,,the Symmetry can present the same I think.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting stormpetrol:
Link
WOW Click on the link for real time info latest wind gust in the last hour at Owen Roberts Airport 49.5mph.


yep. Just had 43 mph at my home.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Just a quick safety note. For those with a backup generator, don't relax on supplies that you may need. Have seen wind events take out the generator also.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guys I still think that the real COC is well East of the BEST track plots and also stormpetrol the way I am looking at it you are off by a bit I am seeing it at 16.5N/17N 79.5/80W BTW did you recive my mail Stormpetrol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Code orange on 96L!



It bugs me that we have a floater on 95L but not 96L. I e-mailed the SSD earlier.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Taz, do you just read the other blog comments or do you actually look at the NHC satellite frames? 95L looks like it is improving & not going away.
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Quoting Patrap:
A healthy Dvorak..


Would Dovark present the same way for a warm core and a cold core disturbance?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2351
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
However the CHS wx discussion does say how unusual the dry trough is----have never seen a statement quite like this:

THE 12Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...FEATURING
PWATS ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH AND A K INDEX OF -25...A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 115F. EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY.




our PW has been between 2.2 and 2.7 for a week now! and in the past week, we have now picked up a little over 9 inches of rain! I picked up 1.75 yesterday and 2.03 this morning, I love this weather honestly!

Beats mid to upper 90's for highs and only 4.23 inches for June! Most of it fell in the last few days of June too. June was horribly dry and hot, but not a dry heat, an extremely humid heat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link
WOW Click on the link for real time info latest wind gust in the last hour at Owen Roberts Airport 49.5mph.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The wind is howling outside. Not much rain at the moment, just a drizzle, but very stormy otherwise.
Stay safe.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194


18Z Runs 96L
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting Dakster:


I have a backup generator too.. Thankfully I didn't need it, but the power flicking on and off was annoying and kept waking me up.

Looks like we will have our typical 4th of July - rain and thunderstorms.
Outside right now:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MrstormX:
What do you guys say, 50% for 96L coming up?



good but the way 96L is going i think we may see %60 or may be even %70
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
Hey everyone, happy 4th. Like I said id check in if there's any potential for tropical development and there sure is. What does everyone think of the wave off Africa? It's holding up pretty well so far.
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And everyone was wondering when the tropics would pop. How interesting that it comes on the Fourth of July.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yup. Luckily I live in an apartment building and we have like 1000 back-up generators.


I have a backup generator too.. Thankfully I didn't need it, but the power flicking on and off was annoying and kept waking me up.

Looks like we will have our typical 4th of July - rain and thunderstorms.
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924. IKE
12Z ECMWF further north w/96L but weaker.
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i smell red comeing at 8pm
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
A healthy Dvorak..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
What do you guys say, 50% for 96L coming up?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
The wave east of the Antilles may give us much more to watch...just got to wait and see.


That has me concerned. It is probably the most amplified and vigorous wave we have seen approach the islands yet this year.
Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Those observations in the Caymans is likely what drove these numbers in the 18z coordinates.

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,


The wind is howling outside. Not much rain at the moment, just a drizzle, but very stormy otherwise.
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The wave east of the Antilles may give us much more to watch...just got to wait and see.
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Are we now in upward motion? MJO
Member Since: July 1, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 1683
We may drive down to Grand Isle in the Morning for the 95L Landfall and for a sack of oysters.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
I never thought 95L would amount to much but it is hanging in there. Being tight & compact now I wonder it has finally made the warm-core transition. Enough time to become a TD before landfall?

96L in Western Carribean & another wave entering the Eastern Carribean. What, potential development East of FL? I guess this can be called the 4th of Carribean July.



95L is gone RIP the dry air has kill it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
Quoting Dakster:


Did you have nasty storms last night. We kept losing power.
Yup. Luckily I live in an apartment building and we have like 1000 back-up generators.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Sheesh and that wave near the Antilles looks like it could develop at anytime as well.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm breaking off---bbq to set up and fireworks to see later. Be out till at least 11 pm--I wonder what 96L will look like when I get back. Y'all have a good 4th!


We have natural fireworks going off at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I never thought 95L would amount to much but it is hanging in there. Being tight & compact now I wonder it has finally made the warm-core transition. Enough time to become a TD before landfall?

96L in Western Carribean & another wave entering the Eastern Carribean. What, potential development East of FL? I guess this can be called the 4th of Carribean July.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
However the CHS wx discussion does say how unusual the dry trough is----have never seen a statement quite like this:

THE 12Z KCHS RAOB REVEALED AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS...FEATURING
PWATS ONLY AROUND 1/2 INCH AND A K INDEX OF -25...A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AND A CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF 115F. EXCEPT
FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM...THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE TODAY.

Sounds like the air mass that was over North Central TX in Mid June. Very dry & it has to shoot up to 115F to trigger convection, and a PWAT of 0.50". At least it is a dry heat.

PS. Our PWAT yesterday was about 2.52" a near-record for North TX and we have had 4.70" of rain in 5 days. Hang tough, the pattern will change again in several days.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Really nasty thunderstorms overhead here in Brickell.


Did you have nasty storms last night. We kept losing power.
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The tropics are unpredictable, I didn't even know we had 96L until now.
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Pat, is there any plan in place to help out should this system make a track towards Texas?
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Quoting kmanislander:
96L organizing. Just saw a 43 mph wind gust here. Winds fluctuating between 30 and 38 mph.



and fast we may have a TS by this time monday
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354
Quoting weather42009:
456 read your outlook, and by the looks of the tropics I guess you will be right again.


If we have anything less than 2 named storms this month then I will be surprise.
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95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129090
Quoting kmanislander:
96L organizing. Just saw a 43 mph wind gust here. Winds fluctuating between 30 and 38 mph.
Those observations in the Caymans is likely what drove these numbers in the 18z coordinates.

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 167N, 835W, 30, 1009, DB,
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting btwntx08:

what gfdl the lastest one kills it in 12 hrs lol



i think it safe too say we can drop that one
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115354

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.