A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1000. Patrap
Quoting StormW:


And the upward motion pulse will be reluctant to leave due to all the warmth in the Atlantic.


Kinda like me in the jacuzzi with a Seven and 7
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Am I correct in saying that, it looks like 96l is wrapping itself up rather nicely?
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Looks like 95l is trying to steal first place on smallest storm ever dam forgot his name.
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Quoting TXCaneCrasher:
Question for the experts, If 96L does develop in the Carribean what effect will it have on the new wave entering the Carribean now? Will it stir the water up enough to keep it from strengthening too much? Just curious.


Good question, it depends on how much heat 96L uses. if you notice 96L is trapped in fast steering flow so I suspect it would not remain in the NW Caribbean for long. I think there is enough heat to support a third system, though it will tend to be weaker.
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Another good sized squall just came to shore on Grand Cayman.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Consolidation of convection continues to occur along with colder cloud tops along the system. Before long 96L is going to be a sphere, lol.



be for long i see 96L be comeing a TD or TS hey do i see a eye?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
We rely heavily on rainfall from cold fronts and tropical waves. During summer months, day time heating causes some convective activity which begins on the eastern side, and forms a line of clouds. This gives central George Town and areas near by more consistent rainfall. Eastern and Western districts tend to be a bit drier.
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Quoting Jedkins01:



How much rain do the cayman islands get? I mean as far as in an average year?

I just wonder because the islands appear too small to generate diurnal deep thunderstorm formation, which accounts for a very large amount of the rainfall in the mainlands of tropical rain forests.


Quite a lot between June and December from Tropical waves and the usual summer time afternoon showers. Grand Cayman gets more rain than our two sister islands because we have a very green swampy interior that causes afternoon showers from day time heating and evaporation. June alone averages 7 inches.

I don't have the annual figure to hand but some days we can get several inches during the hurricane season from TWaves.
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Consolidation of convection continues to occur along with colder cloud tops along the system. Before long 96L is going to be a sphere, lol.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting stormpetrol:
Wouldn't surprise if this upgraded straight TS Bonnie before morning, 96L is under going explosive development in my opinion.


me too

we are sure see xplosive development going on here
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Quoting sporteguy03:


What about the lack of Upper Level Lows and what about the TUTT any differences you see so far from past seasons?


Our TUTT has been in place but to the advantage of storms in the W Caribbean as in my June outlook. What I dont see is much TUTT cells breaking off and heading SW. One reason as I pointed out in my July outlook is that we have more anticyclonic flow rather than cyclonic flow developing in the upper levels across the Atlantic and this is key to La Nina years.
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HAPPY 4TH OF JULY EVERYBODY!!! :) :) :) From Rainy Clearwater FL. Actually it has stopped for the time being, lol. Have Fun today everyone.
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Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Wouldn't surprise if this upgraded straight TS Bonnie before morning, 96L is under going explosive development in my opinion.
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi and 456, if 95L and 96L and wave just east of Antilles is enough,a interesting wave just emerged West Africa today.


Yeah that's the one I was speaking about. This looks like the most impressive system to come off Africa since the origins of Alex
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18z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest95
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)






Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



Early Model Wind Forecasts
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
981. xcool
lol
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
980. IKE
12Z ECMWF@ 96 hours....

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Question for the experts, If 96L does develop in the Carribean what effect will it have on the new wave entering the Carribean now? Will it stir the water up enough to keep it from strengthening too much? Just curious.
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Going to go see if I can get enough fireworks to create enough heat and rotation over the local lake and try to produce my own little hurricane. Everyone have a good 4th.
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Levi are you going to have a video today? I always look forward to your videos very helpful and keep me up to date. Thank You
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Some nice heavy squalls coming through now here on the west side(maybe reaching between-35-40mph)....intermittent moderate-light rain.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Savannah, Grand Cayman.



Wow! 30-35 mph already?
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Back in a while
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Levi and 456, if 95L and 96L and wave just east of Antilles is enough,a interesting wave just emerged West Africa today.



can we PLZ for get about 95L
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
Levi and 456, if 95L and 96L and wave just east of Antilles is enough,a interesting wave just emerged West Africa today.
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itsa Mojo rising..


Itsa Mojo rising
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128636
Quoting Weather456:


Yea Levi....we are going to get some showers from this one!

But it has favorable conditions ahead so it needs to be watch.

They are taking off one behind the other.


What about the lack of Upper Level Lows and what about the TUTT any differences you see so far from past seasons?
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Quoting kmanislander:


I am. On the SW end of Grand Cayman about 500 feet from the sea.



How much rain do the cayman islands get? I mean as far as in an average year?

I just wonder because the islands appear too small to generate diurnal deep thunderstorm formation, which accounts for a very large amount of the rainfall in the mainlands of tropical rain forests.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
See new bloggers, THIS is what happens when the Doc takes a vacation.

GOES-E Satellite loop of Caribbean
Link


Yes, I remember on Tuesday during the radio show Dr. Masters said, "I'm going to be gone for a week," the blog freaked out.

New bloggers, the joke is that whenever Dr. Masters goes on vacation, the tropics heat up.
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Quoting kuppenskup:
Think we'll have a TD or named storm in the Caribbean by Tuesday?



i say even sooner the way 96L is going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
965. Mikla
Invests w/ some models...
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Are we now in upward motion? MJO


We are upward



However,
We are soon at the stage of the season where the MJO will not matter....the environment is just favorable for convective development.
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Think we'll have a TD or named storm in the Caribbean by Tuesday?
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


what is the floater? What does that mean?


a floater is when they focus and track ... one of the satellites on a particular invest, storm or hurricane. It gives a bit more definition to the satellite image.
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Little bit breezy in the Caymans.....

Cam takes a minute to load
Member Since: June 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 38
Quoting kmanislander:


yep. Just had 43 mph at my home.


Wow - this mug gettin' her act together!
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I don't see 95L becoming much with the dry air and moving west just behind the shear. Maybe when it nears Texas coast tomorow it might find moist air and shear relaxing, but very short window and small system.
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Quoting CanesfanatUT:


How many times has this happened? I remember once for a 'cane a few years ago. Anyone else remember how many times he's been gone and we've had a significant (TS or more) system develop?



yup and look at it go now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115234
See a ship report 37 mph at 40 degrees 17.8n 82w.
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Even so Levi, if it heads towards the channel itself.
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955. xcool
btwntx08 go look at ike posting
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
96L is certainly organizing faster than Alex did. Pressures didn't start dropping several days after 93L was declared, NHC says pressures are already dropping.
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Quoting Patrap:


IMpressive Kman..

..your East of her right?


I am. On the SW end of Grand Cayman about 500 feet from the sea.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
dr m is on Vacation and look 96L takes off


How many times has this happened? I remember once for a 'cane a few years ago. Anyone else remember how many times he's been gone and we've had a significant (TS or more) system develop?
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Convection is consolidating nicely with 96L, and towards the east with time, which is bad news for the north gulf coast if the center tends to stay to the northeast with the convection and head more towards the northeast tip of the Yucatan or even the Yucatan channel.

Member Since: November 24, 2005 Posts: 635 Comments: 26652

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.