A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Orcasystems:
Not often we get Model consensus like this :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


how do you get that on google earth?
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Whatever is in the gulf in the next few days will be steered to the Northwest or West. Good chance 96L heads somewhere to Texas
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L may not be done yet ....

Link


Did 95L do the impossible and move South back into the Gulf???
Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
Quoting Kristina40:


I'd have to guess those are courtesy of Alex and 95L. Which is precisely why many of us were watching lil 95L.


Link

Lets hope it is normal (article states not uncommon) or from a passing ship that has taken it on
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:

We did not get any rain today at all....
Now we did get some at around 5am this morning
but none the rest of the day.....
I just finished BBQ some chicken and fried Squash & green Tamatoes.....

Taco :o)
It rained down here from 5 till about 8:30. Came in from the Bay, but we needed it.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
5046. Patrap
Quoting cg2916:



Like a landfalling Marco.


Compact ,,but with a Bigger envelope overall than Marco..but its a fine analogy .
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Quoting mobilebayal:

BiloxiIsle, I thought your avitar picture was a picture of a hurricane or a tropical storm. I just realized it was a cat!...lol I am thinking some new glasses are in order!

lol, that's ok. Although, at times, she acts like a hurricane...tearing through the house
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Quoting atmoaggie:
new blog

(j/k, made ya look)

now cut that out!!!! lmao

oh we need some help!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
new blog

(j/k, made ya look)


I don't blame you after you got left behind the other night.
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5041. Patrap



2 products issued by NWS for: 37NM SSW Houma LA
Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
525 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577-LAZ034>040-
046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-062230-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
LAKE BORGNE-CHANDELEUR SOUND-BRETON SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE PORT FOURCHON TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO PORT FOURCHON FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STAKE ISLAND LA TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO STAKE ISLAND LA FROM 20 TO
60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-
TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-
EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-
ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-
ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-
LOWER TERREBONNE-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-
PEARL RIVER-HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
525 PM CDT MON JUL 5 2010

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SOME OF THE SQUALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NEAR-
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

MARINE...
WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF
COASTAL WATERS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TONIGHT AS THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THUNDERSTORMS...
A TROPICAL WAVE NOW LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TOWARD MIDWEEK. THIS LOW
WILL TRANSPORT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA...RESULTING IN
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINS...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA.

.COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ACROSS ALL COASTAL AREAS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN TIDE LEVELS THAT ARE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...
WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EASTERN MARINE
ZONES STARTING TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME PERIOD. SEAS WILL PEAK 5 TO 8
FEET ON WEDNESDAY.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

$$

95/DM




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Quoting msgambler:
Taco, How much rain did you get up in town today?

We did not get any rain today at all....
Now we did get some at around 5am this morning
but none the rest of the day.....
I just finished BBQ some chicken and fried Squash & green Tamatoes.....

Taco :o)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The bickering on here is distracting and a waste of blog space and time. I come here to learn, and, if possible, contribute. Maybe I'm just old, but I was taught to be respectful to others. Thanks for the ones who teach without berating someone's lack of knowledge.After all, that's why some of us are here, to gain that knowledge.
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Here in Key West we have had a very cloudy day with winds about 30mph from the ESE and scattered showers from time to time. Temps have been around 80 degrees. Nice day though. I live on a sailboat about a mile from shore.
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Quoting cg2916:


It has to actually develop, which I think is stupid, because if we have a strong Invest with strong TS-force winds, there is no tropical storm warning.


Usually they're good about issuing gale warnings though, which is like the same thing but there is no closed LLC involved with the winds..
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5035. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:



Like a landfalling Marco.
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5034. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI


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5033. cg2916
Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?


It has to actually develop, which I think is stupid, because if we have a strong Invest with strong TS-force winds, there is no tropical storm warning.
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?


Because it's not officially a Tropical Depression or a Tropical Storm.
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?


I'm no expert but I reckon that it would have to be a "tropical storm" those stats you're reading off sound close to TD so that would probably be right? Anyone that would know the answer to this care to agree or disagree and correct me if I'm wrong?
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yes sir, 95l has been pushing it our way
Member Since: June 28, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 156
Quoting taco2me61:

Yes with all due respect I am surprised that we have not had a "New Blog".... This is way to long now....

Taco :o)
Taco, How much rain did you get up in town today?
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
5027. Patrap
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Quoting PensacolaBuoy:
Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?

haha good point beats me
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new blog

(j/k, made ya look)
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
5024. cg2916
What the heck? Code red on 95L? I thought it was at <0%.
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Hey, if "near tropical storm force winds could occur across Terrebone Parish," and there is a 60% chance of 95L becoming a cyclone before it moves inland, why would there not be a tropical storm watch issued for the coast?
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Quoting itrackstorms:
5000 posts

We are in serious need of a new blog.

Yes with all due respect I am surprised that we have not had a "New Blog".... This is way to long now....

Taco :o)
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95L may not be done yet ....

Link
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whats shoot for 10,000 post

if we dont kill the blog 1st
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114699
Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 10.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 6.4 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 128 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.3 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.6 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 76.5 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 92.1 °F


29.78inch this is 1008.5mb and is 60 miles fron center so in center will be 1007 or 1006mb
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From WDSU "Tar Balls Reach Rigolets, Threaten Lake Pontchartrain" Link

95L, be it a named storm or not, is making a large impact on the gulf coast by driving this oil further inland and threatening both the ecosystem and the lives of it's residents. We need to focus on the big picture here, not on what 95L is or is not.

Back to lurking I go.
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..showers and strong thunderstorms moving across coastal
southeast Louisiana...

545 PM CDT... a well defined area of low pressure is moving
inland over Terrebonne Parish. The low was located south of
Houma and is moving north northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

The low is expected to continue to move inland this evening and
this evening with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible over the
affected area through this evening which could down tree limbs and
blow around unsecured small objects.

These storms could produce rainfall amounts of one to
three inches in a short period of time... resulting in ponding of
water around low lying roadways. Remember... do not drive your vehicle
into water covered roadways. The depth may be too great to allow a
safe crossing.

Tide levels remain elevated and onshore winds of 20 to 30 mph may
cause some low lying roadways near coastal areas to flood.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


I saw that earlier. Can't believe it made it to us!


I'd have to guess those are courtesy of Alex and 95L. Which is precisely why many of us were watching lil 95L.
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Quoting BiloxiIsle:

Wow, you "poof" people who agrees with you...to many "poof" happy people here.

BiloxiIsle, I thought your avitar picture was a picture of a hurricane or a tropical storm. I just realized it was a cat!...lol I am thinking some new glasses are in order!
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Quoting palmpt:


Yes, I'm disappointed that StormW went down to that level of bickering. His opinion is to be respected but not worshiped. If he was right 100% of the time, I'd suspect him of having a little arrangement with Ms. Nature. But right now I'm watching Patrap with a suspicious eye...
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5012. xcool
96L development HMMM
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Quoting MississippiBoy:
Storm,so if 96L gets it s act together and strengthens it COULD go more northerly than predicted and I know nothing is etched in stone.
The same was said of Alex. He couldn't consolidate quick enough to be a N Gulf problem...
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting aquak9:
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot.

beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper.

And a rabies shot.


Granted.. your avatar is a little scruffy.. but a rabies shot??
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
5009. Patrap
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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Quoting texascoastres:
Tar balls on Bolivar at galveston, they have tested it and it is a match to the dna of the gulf oil spill


I saw that earlier. Can't believe it made it to us!
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Quoting Asta:


wow the convection looks worse in south florida then 95l
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5000 posts

We are in serious need of a new blog.
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Not often we get Model consensus like this :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
5004. Patrap
96L RGB




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Quoting biloxidaisy:
Wow... lots of tension here tonight... hate to see it in another month. Deep breath everyone.. deep breath...

Hopefully, Admin will be out in full force. I love reading this site throughout the day, but lately it has just been crazy!
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5002. Asta
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5001. aquak9
spathy- we're not getting any rain here for probably a week. Storm supplies? well we were gonna crank up the genny but we forgot.

beef jerky, instant coffee, toilet paper.

And a rabies shot.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25725

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.