A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1051. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804
1050. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/95/L
MARK
27.8N/90.1W


INV/96/L
MARK
16.8N/80.8W


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
14.8N/59.7W
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Quoting StormW:


Back at ya, Pat!


Storm-Assuming this develops into a Tropical System in the next 48hrs do you see that Westward turn happening?
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1048. Asta
Quoting Patrap:
Gustav did the Nasty here and NW to Baton Rouge in 08.

Bad seed he was too

spawned tornados through MS towards Jackson too..
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1047. Patrap
100 Bucks says BP gets caught with their pants around their ankles come Tuesday Morn..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804
Quoting kmanislander:


Quite a lot between June and December from Tropical waves and the usual summer time afternoon showers. Grand Cayman gets more rain than our two sister islands because we have a very green swampy interior that causes afternoon showers from day time heating and evaporation. June alone averages 7 inches.

I don't have the annual figure to hand but some days we can get several inches during the hurricane season from TWaves.



Sounds pretty impressive, I just wondered if islands in the tropics had quite a bit less rain then mainlands or not. I'm actually pretty surprised small islands like that can generate diurnal convection, but then again you said mainly Grand Cayman so that makes since. Although they look small on satellite and maps, the world is a bigger place then we often treat it though lol.
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Too bad 95L is attached to a front.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Are you a broken record ? 95L could easily be upgraded before tomorrow


Are you a broken record?
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Between 12z and 18z coordinates 96L has been moving NW. If you extrapolate current motion, 96L will move through the Yucatan channel, clipping extreme western Cuba.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Gonna go out on a limb and say reccon will find TD 2.
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1039. Drakoen
The speed of the low level flow in the Caribbean may make it somewhat difficult for 96L to acquire a surface circulation.
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What's the most likely track for 96L? Over Yucatan, through the channel or over Cuba?
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1036. leo305
Quoting Tazmanian:



no 95L is dead


it clearly isn't dead on the visible, stop calling a system dead when it clearly is not, even if everything is against it, it still is there and its alive and spinning.
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1035. Dirtleg
NW of Tampa, JUST off shore. New spin starting up
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1034. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You aren't going to get any tropical depression until Recon goes in to investigate 96L tomorrow at 1:30 PM.


*big long moan from everyone in the blog*
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Quoting Tazmanian:



no 95L is dead


Are you a broken record ? 95L could easily be upgraded before tomorrow
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1031. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Consolidation of convection continues to occur along with colder cloud tops along the system. Before long 96L is going to be a sphere, lol.



LOL, looks impressive.

Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like 95l is trying to steal first place on smallest storm ever dam forgot his name.


MARCO!

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You aren't going to get any tropical depression until Recon goes in to investigate 96L tomorrow at 1:30 PM.


Most likely your correct. But if it develops a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient organization before then, it could be classified.
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1029. leo305
95L is looking amazingly good on satellite..
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And with that spin we will have take off for Bonnie.
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1027. Patrap
Gustav's first Band approaching in 08 NOLA



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


95L is more likely to be a TD



no 95L is dead
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting gordydunnot:
TD at 8 ? 96L
You aren't going to get any tropical depression until Recon goes in to investigate 96L tomorrow at 1:30 PM.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1024. cg2916
Quoting TexasHurricane:


what is the floater? What does that mean?


A satellite image placed directly over a system.

Quoting Levi32:
Convection is consolidating nicely with 96L, and towards the east with time, which is bad news for the north gulf coast if the center tends to stay to the northeast with the convection and head more towards the northeast tip of the Yucatan or even the Yucatan channel.



Wow, already?

Quoting CanesfanatUT:


How many times has this happened? I remember once for a 'cane a few years ago. Anyone else remember how many times he's been gone and we've had a significant (TS or more) system develop?


A lot.
Quoting Weather456:


We are upward



However,
We are soon at the stage of the season where the MJO will not matter....the environment is just favorable for convective development.


Really? It was downward yesterday.

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96L is not only consolidating its convection but getting ready to spin.
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Link ....and the wave train continues.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Am I correct in saying that, it looks like 96l is wrapping itself up rather nicely?

96L is looking better and better by the hour. And 96L is wrapping itself up rather nicely.
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1020. Dirtleg
Wow..take a look at TPA radar and all the mesocyclonic action
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1019. leo305
yep 95L reminds me of Marco
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Quoting gordydunnot:
TD at 8 ? 96L


95L is more likely to be a TD


Marco

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Here in Texas we don't need another tropical system for a month or so, some areas received 10 to 15 inches this week. The flooding will be major if a system comes to Texas in the next week.
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Interesting formation.
http://www.weather.com/maps/geography/africaandmiddleeast/africasatellite_large_animated.html
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1015. Patrap
Gustav did the Nasty here and NW to Baton Rouge in 08.

Bad seed he was too
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804
Quoting hydrus:
Marco.

POLO!!!
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TD at 8 ? 96L
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1012. fishcop
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


THAT....is a great shot!
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Quoting Tazmanian:


me too

we are sure see xplosive development going on here


Dont expect an upgrade til tuesday. Remember since July 4th fell on a Sunday this year Tropical Systems are going to be taking their vacation day tomorrow. Therefore No activity will take place til after midnight Tuesday Morning.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Am I correct in saying that, it looks like 96l is wrapping itself up rather nicely?


yeah, looks to be getting it's act together without any problems....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
1009. Patrap
Quoting StormW:


Now dat's what I'm talkin' bout


Happy Fourth to you and the Boyz Chief..from NOLA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804
The only system that comes to mind in looking at 96L is Gustav 2008.
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1007. hydrus
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like 95l is trying to steal first place on smallest storm ever dam forgot his name.
Marco.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Polo
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
To add, upper lows especially TUTT cells are maintained by subsidence. We are in a state of upward motion.
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1002. Patrap
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like 95l is trying to steal first place on smallest storm ever dam forgot his name.


Marco..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129804

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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