A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting cg2916:
How many TCFA points does 96L have?


35
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1099. Patrap
Quoting Hurricanes101:


don't have IE, thank you for assuming though

It works fine now that I minused all the stuff from the LSU site lol



Your welcome,

..anytime
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
I can only remember one time a storm transitioned and became a tropical storm..it was right after I started blogging here, i think. It was off the coast of South Carolina, if memory serves...can anyone help me out on this one? Probably around 2007/08?
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1097. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I really want an SSD floater for 96L.


Me too.

Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have


Umm.... 456 you answer! LOL
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Tropical or subtropical doesn't make a difference... that is a developing low and looks to be developing rather quickly. Really tightens up nicely in the latest frames.
Doesn't matter how well defined the low is, even if it has an eye popping out. 95L is attached to a frontal boundary and is non-tropical.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1095. Mikla
METAR and Buoy info near 96L...
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1094. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
96L looking Impressive but I think still at least 48hrs from a closed circulation unless something unusual happens.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have


-50C cloud tops is not "deep"
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Yep. 96L building some of the deep stuff...95L notsomuch.

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
Quoting Patrap:
Gustav's first Band approaching in 08 NOLA





Patrap- WOW! That brings back memories.Facing Gustav was like getting back on the horse that kicked ya, at least for me, and when that first band came through, my stomach was flipping. It was SO dark, SO fast.
Anyway, happy 4th!
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Quoting Patrap:


Someone need a Browser upgrade, that IE stuff is archaic


don't have IE, thank you for assuming though

It works fine now that I minused all the stuff from the LSU site lol
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1088. cg2916
How many TCFA points does 96L have?
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Quoting Patrap:
itsa Mojo rising..


Itsa Mojo rising


LOL I thought so. Just seemed interesting that everything starts firing all at once...
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Tropical or subtropical doesn't make a difference... that is a developing low and looks to be developing rather quickly. Really tightens up nicely in the latest frames.
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95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1084. Patrap


Someone need a Browser upgrade, that IE stuff is archaic
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
I really want an SSD floater for 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting Weather456:


Good question, it depends on how much heat 96L uses. if you notice 96L is trapped in fast steering flow so I suspect it would not remain in the NW Caribbean for long. I think there is enough heat to support a third system, though it will tend to be weaker.


Thank you 456. I am a new blogger but have always been very interested in the weather. Especially the Hurricance Season. I am here to learn as much as possible from you all. I see that you and StormW have Much Respect
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1081. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting jlp09550:
Is that a spin?

Yes, a very tight one at that.
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Quoting extreme236:


It is still attached to a front. Which means, it cannot develop into either a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Plus, it's soon heading for land.



therenot geting it aret they
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting jlp09550:
Is that a spin?



It's been spinning. Nothing new there.
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ok Hardcoreweather

95L is non-tropical and still attached to a front

It may look pretty, but it is not going to develop into anything


96L has a much much higher chance of being a TD
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95L looks like Marco.
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Is that a spin?

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Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting CoffinWood:


They work just fine for me.


me too now that I minused them lol

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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ok these images from the LSU site are screwing up my internet really bad guys

use another site


They work just fine for me.
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Quoting Dirtleg:
NW of Tampa, JUST off shore. New spin starting up
Been looking at that since this morning on the Bay News 9 Klystron regional radar.
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Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Looks tropical to me. I think we may get a little storm pop up there soon.
It is non-tropical because it is still attached to a frontal boundary. Here's what the NHC says:

"SMALL NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE"
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting leo305:


Who cares? It can become a SUB TROPICAL LOW..

does not have to be purely tropical for it to develop..


It is still attached to a front. Which means, it cannot develop into either a subtropical or tropical cyclone. Plus, it's soon heading for land.
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Quoting btwntx08:
convection on 95L is gonna collaspe if not its doing that now


yup
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting cg2916:


NE tip of Yucatan, probably won't affect the system much.



Well, considering the fact that ASCAT and WindSat are BOTH missing 96L, I don't know whether to agree or disagree, but I'm thinking it'll be a close call, but probably TD 2.


We dont need those two useless pieces of data when we have reccon.
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1065. Patrap
Quoting Patrap:
Click FRONTS and MSLP

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop


It aint rocket science today,..LOL
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting Dakster:
Hope 96L doesn't prove to be another "Ike" for Texas...


Shhh....please don't even think like that
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Ok these images from the LSU site are screwing up my internet really bad guys

use another site
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Quoting Weather456:
Gonna go out on a limb and say reccon will find TD 2.



yup me too
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
1061. Patrap
Click FRONTS and MSLP

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
1060. leo305
Quoting Tazmanian:



that dos not mean a dran thing 95L is a

NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE


It can become a SUB TROPICAL LOW..

does not have to be purely tropical for it to develop..
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1059. IKE
Buoy at 25.9N and 89.6W....Link

Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 230 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 2.3 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.2 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.95 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.0 °F
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1058. cg2916
Quoting yonzabam:
What's the most likely track for 96L? Over Yucatan, through the channel or over Cuba?


NE tip of Yucatan, probably won't affect the system much.

Quoting Weather456:
Gonna go out on a limb and say reccon will find TD 2.


Well, considering the fact that ASCAT and WindSat are BOTH missing 96L, I don't know whether to agree or disagree, but I'm thinking it'll be a close call, but probably TD 2.
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Some say the outer bands of Gustav were actually stronger then the cane. lol
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1055. angiest
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Between 12z and 18z coordinates 96L has been moving NW. If you extrapolate current motion, 96L will move through the Yucatan channel, clipping extreme western Cuba.


XTRP is not a model! :D
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Tazmanian:



95L is a non Tropic low
Looks tropical to me. I think we may get a little storm pop up there soon.
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Quoting leo305:


it clearly isn't dead on the visible, stop calling a system dead when it clearly is not, even if everything is against it, it still is there and its alive and spinning.



that dos not mean a dran thing 95L is a

NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115379
Quoting extreme236:


Most likely your correct. But if it develops a well-defined surface circulation and sufficient organization before then, it could be classified.
Well it is possible that they could upgrade it before tomorrow, but they will need hard-core info such as a clear-cut ASCAT pass. Either way I'm very sure we will have TD #2 tomorrow after recon investigates.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1051. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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