A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...


Is it just you and I that thinks that way- cause Ive been on here for an hour talking about that wave but noone is even mentioning it at all.
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1150. cg2916
Quoting jlp09550:
Hm.



Starting to consolidate, trying to get that classic TD comma shape.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I really want an SSD floater for 96L.
For now, you could use this: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


We need 36 for TCFA correct?
35-38 if dvorak numbers warrant (obviously that is not the case with 96L). Once numbers reach 39 it is mandatory that a TCFA is issued. As a side note, remember that TCFA's are issued only during weekdays and never on weekends.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1145. Patrap
Hurricane Cindy July 5-6 2005




95L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
1144. cg2916
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L is literally the second coming of Alex.


Exactly!
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1143. cg2916
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...


Woah, one at a time... until August that is.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L is literally the second coming of Alex.


lol lol
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Hm.

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1140. Dirtleg
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Keeper, I'm sorry for earlier today.


You've already been reported :) too late now
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


We need 36 for TCFA correct?


If it's 35-38 they may issue one if they feel it's needed. If it's at 39 it should be issued no matter what.
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Keeper, I'm sorry for earlier today.



am dont think keeper is on right now
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Quoting Weather456:
96L is not only consolidating its convection but getting ready to spin.


I lurked for awhile this morning then come back in the afternoon to find this! Man, that thing is really taking off. We could have a TS in no time if it doesn't slow down.
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Quoting connie1976:
Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Should most of the storms this year hit the gulf states and miss South Florida? It seems a lot of storms are headed for TX...
Connie don't worry when/if anything comes close to south florida channel wsvn, will be all over like flies on you know what, stick with everyone on here & you will be informed in timely manner of impending ts.canes coming to a city near you
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1135. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We need 36 for TCFA correct?


35-38 means possible TCFA, 39 is mandatory TCFA.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


except Marco was tropical and not attached to a front lol


So it's the literal second coming except without the literal lol.
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That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


except Marco was tropical and not attached to a front lol



thats too bad lol oh well
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Gabrielle..yup...thanks guys!
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Quoting Kristina40:
95L Doesn't have to develop into anything more than it is to cause some major problems for the Oil clean up and recovery. Morgan City is ground zero for ships going in and out to the Horizon site. It is of great interest to those of us on the Gulf Coast so I appreciate those of you that are still posting updates on it despite the cries of "it's dead". It is still very much relevant to we Gulf Coasters.


I hear you, we feel the same. Nobody on here can predict where it's gonna go or what it's gonna do for sure. We're just offering our opinion here and everyone has their own. But trust me, were on your side nobody wants a major system coming onboard especially with this Oil Disaster.
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Quoting IKE:


I gave you a "+" for the best post of the day!


Thanks Ike, some people seem a bit myopic about this.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I counted 35.


We need 36 for TCFA correct?
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Quoting MrstormX:
95L, is literally the second coming of Marco
96L is literally the second coming of Alex.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Sure are some decent winds out there...nothing showing a west winds, but no obs in the right places.


(clock for full size)
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Quoting leo305:
mhm.. It doesn't look connected to anything on visible satellite.. and besides even if it was, the trough *(front)* is falling apart.. and creating lots of little swirls along what was the boundary..

if it had no chance, the NHC wouldn't have given it a 10% possibilty of becoming a TC.



%10 ch is vary low
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
Quoting cg2916:


That warrants a possible TCFA.


If that's what Navy counted as well, they can issue one at any time. NHC is still at orange but Navy is independent with its TCFA's. Plus, they issued a TCFA for pre-Alex (93L) when NHC still had it at orange. So I think it's possible we'll get one tonight.
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Quoting MrstormX:
95L, is literally the second coming of Marco


except Marco was tropical and not attached to a front lol
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1121. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Anyone got ASCAT winds for 96L?


Both ASCAT and Windsat missed it.

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Quoting connie1976:
Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Should most of the storms this year hit the gulf states andmiss South Florida? It seems a lot of storms are headed for TX...
I wish. This is just the type of set-up we are in. Right now with all the heat is centered is in the Caribbean, thus most activity develops there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1119. Patrap
And the LSU Site is the Only one with the Wunderground tropical Link on a College site ..too

Check the "Tropical Weather" Link on the WAVCIS Page.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128279
95L, is literally the second coming of Marco
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1117. IKE
Quoting Kristina40:
95L Doesn't have to develop into anything more than it is to cause some major problems for the Oil clean up and recovery. Morgan City is ground zero for ships going in and out to the Horizon site. It is of great interest to those of us on the Gulf Coast so I appreciate those of you that are still posting updates on it despite the cries of "it's dead". It is still very much relevant to we Gulf Coasters.


I gave you a "+" for the best post of the day!
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can we put 95L too rest now and move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115097
1115. cg2916
Quoting Weather456:


35


That warrants a possible TCFA.
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Forgive me if this is a stupid question....
Should most of the storms this year hit the gulf states and miss South Florida? It seems a lot of storms are headed for TX...
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Quoting jlp09550:
Is that a spin?



Yeah it is but in that satellite clip the frontal boundary it is attached to is very clear.
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Quoting Weather456:
To add, upper lows especially TUTT cells are maintained by subsidence. We are in a state of upward motion.


thank you great answer.
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Quoting muddertracker:
I can only remember one time a storm transitioned and became a tropical storm..it was right after I started blogging here, i think. It was off the coast of South Carolina, if memory serves...can anyone help me out on this one? Probably around 2007/08?


I am thinking Gabrielle and it took days for her to transition

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96 has a lot more to develop but we could still have a TD coming out party for both tonight. You are probably right on the recon for tomorrow but I see a TS by then. And BP going wth. It's not nice to play with mother nature.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
95L is non-tropical. Anyways I don't see any "deep" convection on satellite imagery.


Yup.
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Quoting cg2916:
How many TCFA points does 96L have?
I counted 35.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
1107. leo305
mhm.. It doesn't look connected to anything on visible satellite.. and besides even if it was, the trough *(front)* is falling apart.. and creating lots of little swirls along what was the boundary..

if it had no chance, the NHC wouldn't have given it a 10% possibilty of becoming a TC.
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1106. cg2916
Quoting muddertracker:
I can only remember one time a storm transitioned and became a tropical storm..it was right after I started blogging here, i think. It was off the coast of South Carolina, if memory serves...can anyone help me out on this one? Probably around 2007/08?


Gabrielle. Overcame dry air.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have


Hmm, should I listen to you, or the NHC?

Guess who wins?
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Anyone got ASCAT winds for 96L?
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L is clearly Tropical now. Deep convection fireing over the center and I suspect 20k to 30k winds. Recon would have been very nice to have
95L is non-tropical. Anyways I don't see any "deep" convection on satellite imagery.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
95L Doesn't have to develop into anything more than it is to cause some major problems for the Oil clean up and recovery. Morgan City is ground zero for ships going in and out to the Horizon site. It is of great interest to those of us on the Gulf Coast so I appreciate those of you that are still posting updates on it despite the cries of "it's dead". It is still very much relevant to we Gulf Coasters.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.