A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1201. xcool
omg i about leave
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I do. And I still do. LOL.


Your just so star struck with 96L that you can't think of anything else lol...Anything aimed at my state ima keep an eye...it may not be worthy of two eyes on it but one eye at least....them things can be sneaky lol
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...SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...

PREFERENCE: 12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF

THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED A LITTLE FASTER BUT REMAINS SLOWER AND
GENERALLY DEEPER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF/12Z UKMET SOLNS. THE 12Z GFS
APPEARS TO BE A FAST NRLY OUTLIER...ESP WITH ITS ENERGY ALOFT. THE
06Z GFS WAS MORE REASONABLE AND IN BETTER LINE WITH THE
ECMWF/UKMET CAMP. THE 12Z GEM GLOB APPEARS TO BE DEEP OUTLIER
ALOFT...AND PUTS MORE EMPHASIS ON A NEW GULF LOW ON DAY 2/3 THAT
TRACKS TWD THE GULF COAST WHICH IS NOT AT ALL SUPPORTED BY THE
OTHER GLOBAL MDLS. THE 12Z UKMET CONTINUES TO HAVE OVERALL THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SYS WITH BETTER CONTINUITY AND ALSO CONTINUING
TO REFLECT A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLN THAT ULTIMATELY TAKES THE
CURRENT LOW INTO SWRN LA TWD THE END OF DAY 1. HOWEVER...THE UKMET
SFC PRESSURES MAY BE A TAD TOO LOW BY THE END OF THE PD...AND TO
THAT EXTENT A BLEND WITH THE ECMWF IS SUGGESTED WHICH IS A BIT
WEAKER.


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Quoting IKE:
Thought 95L was dead? Bloggers?


I'm with you. It's not over until they drop the invest. Or the fat lady sings. Whichever comes first.
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Quoting IKE:
Thought 95L was dead? Bloggers?

sigh. just when I was warming up the pipes...
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Atmo hope we don't get a west wind on 96 because it's going to be Katy bar the door then. I know I shouldn't say this but 96 L is bugging me, as in a Camille only larger wind field size. That said I not posting anymore for a while.
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Quoting IKE:
Thought 95L was dead? Bloggers?



95L is dead
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:
Thought 95L was dead? Bloggers?
I do. And I still do. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1190. IKE
Thought 95L was dead? Bloggers?
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Quoting EricSFL:
Hi all. Tropical or not, 95L looks interesting. And I bet if it was be heading to Brownsville it would not have been "dead" yet.
Rare is the morning in SE LA when we don't have any dew on any of the usual surfaces. This morning was one of those.



Too dry for 95L to do much of anything.

And for local concerns, winds from the east at 15 knots do kick up *some* wave action, but not a whole lot.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



thats 95L not 96L
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That's 95L, not 96L.
LOL, yes yes. I found it very odd that 95L got bumped up.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1187. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Nevermind, lol.
fast
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I feel we will have quite a few things to talk about over the next week. The feature approaching the Lesser Antilles looks interesting. Pressures do not appear to be falling yet, but there is a decent vorticy present which has increased since yesterday. Convection has also been holding steady. The wave which just exited Africa also looks impressive on IR.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh, you know what this means. Time to bump up those TCFA numbers.

04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L


That's 95L, not 96L.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh, you know what this means. Time to bump up those TCFA numbers.

04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L



thats 95L not 96L
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1181. Dirtleg
Anyone else notice the new spin?? Straight west of Orlando, offshore about 100 miles maybe?
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1180. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
95L
04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

not ripped yet
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Quoting jlp09550:
Hm.



Like I said, I am a new blogger and I may be wrong on this but the outflow is beginning to look impressive.
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1178. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic


Thought it was dead?
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Nevermind, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
1175. Drakoen
96L is congealing a bit further east. That may help it move through the channel instead of over the tip of the Yucatan.
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1174. leo305
Quoting Hurricanes101:


warm means the convection it has is not that strong


compared to what it was yesterday and the day before.. this looks WAYY better
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I am counting 4 AOIs right now, its all because doc went on vacation lol.
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1171. Seastep
Quoting Patrap:
And the LSU Site is the Only one with the Wunderground tropical Link on a College site ..too

Check the "Tropical Weather" Link on the WAVCIS Page.





FSU models page links WU, too.
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Quoting TerraNova:
95L reminds me of Marco (2008). It's fighting, I see curvature on the northeast side of the cloud deck but what convection it has is warm.


warm means the convection it has is not that strong
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04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic
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1168. EricSFL
Hi all. Tropical or not, 95L looks interesting. And I bet if it was be heading to Brownsville it would not have been "dead" yet.
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1167. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
No Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico


As of Sun 04 Jul 2010 19:30:02Z
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95L reminds me of Marco (2008). Except it's not tropical.
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Quoting kuppenskup:


Is it just you and I that thinks that way- cause Ive been on here for an hour talking about that wave but noone is even mentioning it at all.
. I understand why... That is 2 weeks away from entering the Carib... Not hot off the presses.. but it sure is impressive. looks to have outflow and all.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just after midnight tonight if so needs be thats when it will be posted
Exactly right.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
96L WNW my foot. That's NNW right now!
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1161. Patrap
95L/96L NASA MSFC Twin Viewer
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Had no clue, lol. What would they do if you got a Humberto on Saturday? By the time they issue the darn TCFA you have a hurricane on your hands. By tomorrow it'll definitely have enough points to get a TCFA though.
Lol, just the way it works.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Well just put my hurricane shutters to the east end of my house, nearly half done, I'll leave the rest for later, at least their on the side of the high winds, don't want to take any chances.
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1158. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
35-38 if dvorak numbers warrant (obviously that is not the case with 96L). Once numbers reach 39 it is mandatory that a TCFA is issued. As a side note, remember that TCFA's are issued only during weekdays and never on weekends.
just after midnight tonight if so needs be thats when it will be posted
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1157. Patrap
Quoting cg2916:


Wow, they're twins!


More a climo lesson than twins..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting atmoaggie:
For now, you could use this: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp_640.asp?data_folder=rmtc/rmtcsasec4ir 404
Actually I've been using the Nasa rapid-fire imagery. Ramsdis is also good though.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
35-38 if dvorak numbers warrant (obviously that is not the case with 96L). Once numbers reach 39 it is mandatory that a TCFA is issued. As a side note, remember that TCFA's are issued only during weekdays and never on weekends.


Had no clue, lol. What would they do if you got a Humberto on Saturday? By the time they issue the darn TCFA you have a hurricane on your hands. By tomorrow it'll definitely have enough points to get a TCFA though.
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1154. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Cindy July 5-6 2005




95L



Wow, they're twins!
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1152. IKE
Quoting btwntx08:
its still attached with a front so no its not breaking off


And you know this....right?
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
That is one large wave that just exited the west African Coast...


Is it just you and I that thinks that way- cause Ive been on here for an hour talking about that wave but noone is even mentioning it at all.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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