A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1251. EricSFL
What ever happened to the "landcane" we saw over Africa last week?
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Next 97L??
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Quoting IKE:


The oil-volcano is at least 200 miles NNW of where those runs are.


You mean east?
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The Slidell 12Z sounding may be dry, but the rest of the gulf...not so much.



Judging from the RGB 95L is detached from the frontal boundary. I didn't think much would come of it but I may be wrong..

I hope BP is ready....

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1246. IKE
Quoting Tazmanian:
from the look at the new mode runs 96L is going right overe BP and the pizza oil


The oil-volcano is at least 200 miles NNE of where those runs are.
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Quoting rarepearldesign:
Let's hope it's not CLP5, that would suck real bad for the oil spill would it not?

CLP5 is a climatological average model based on time of year and past history for that area. But yeah in terms of impact to the spill zone I think this yields more potential for concern than Alex.
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I think 95L is finding some of that loop eddy, hence the fireup in convection. I don't think it will survive its environs howiever.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
from the look at the new mode runs 96L is going right overe BP and the pizza oil


No, it doesn't. The Horizon site is East of any of those tracks.
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1242. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting MrstormX:
95L could be a depression shortly if the nhc sees enough breakaway from the front.
it should wane out after sunset and return again tomorrow with the daytime heat effect
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1240. IKE
Accuweather take on 95L....

"The wind shear around the low is expected to weaken into Monday, potentially giving the low a small window of opportunity for development. However, if the low drifts too far to the west, it will miss this opportunity.

Whether or not this feature develops into a tropical system, it will continue supporting widespread shower and thunderstorm development from Louisiana to Florida West Coast waters throughout the holiday weekend.

Any of these thunderstorms could produce heavy rain over a short period of time, resulting in slow travel, street flooding and disruptions to outdoor festivities.

Where the thunderstorms organize into squalls, they can bring more substantial to disruptions to land and sea based cleanup and containment operations."
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from the look at the new mode runs 96L is going right overe BP and the pizza oil
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Quoting TerraNova:


Lol BAMD is meant for strong deep systems, i.e. major hurricanes, BAMM (Beta Advection Medium) is probably a more viable track for this system.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
BAMD is for deep systems. I'm going with the BAMM for the time being.

Out for now, be back later....


Oh, ok, I wasn't familiar with what those model abbreviations stood for. So I guess that means BAMD is Beta Advection Deep and BAMS is Beta Advection Shallow/Beta Advection Small?
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Midget invest
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Let's hope it's not CLP5, that would suck real bad for the oil spill would it not?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Think ima have to go with BAMM or BAMS. I have no clue what BAMD is doing!

Lol BAMD is meant for strong deep systems, i.e. major hurricanes, BAMM (Beta Advection Medium) is probably a more viable track for this system.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
My update posted on here.
My discussion mostly dominates 4 area's of interest, and they will be listed from least threat to greatest threat on this blog.


95L likely to not amount to nothing much


A non-tropical low is situated about 100 miles south of Louisiana. The system is very small and very weak, with cloud tops only in the -50C range which is very warm. I expect that 95L will not amount to much more than some rain for Louisiana. 95L should continue a WNW-NW direction in the next day or so before finally making landfall. No models develop 95L, increasing the unlikelihood that it amounts to much. The NHC current gives 95L a LOW 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.


(Most recent satellite image of 95L)

Bahamas disturbance a small threat to develop

My second discussion is on a area of convection to the east of Florida situated not to far off the Bahamas. Some of the models have been developing a trough split off Florida and developing it into at least a sub-tropical depression off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states. The system currently is very disorganized, with no organization to speak of what so ever but does has a chance as it gradually moves N-NE the next couple of days. I give this disturbance a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days.

Lesser Antilles disturbance a threat

A Highly amplified wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean. This wave current features a sharp V-shaped axis to it, a common structure of a very powerful wave and it can be seen also on ASCAT that it is very formidable. No models develop the Lesser Antilles disturbances at this time, however water temperatures are very warm ahead of this system and I suspect that this system once it goes farther NW (this system might actually enter the Bahamas, so we'll watch it or it might go into the Western Caribbean) that this could become either Bonnie or Colin. Its defiantly a wave we need to watch even though there is very little if no model support to support the system. I current give the Lesser Antilles disturbance a 30% chance of development.


96L: The one to watch

A strong wave in the Western Caribbean is a large threat to develop over the next couple of days called Invest 96L. 96L is a very large wave and reminds me currently a lot of the invest that became Hurricane Alex, 93L. The wave currently has strong model support from the ECMWF, which is very reliable and was dead on will all of 2009's systems and with even more so with Alex in terms of genesis and track was spot on through its entire lifetime. The most recent run of the ECMWF and the CMC show the possibility that 96L will go more north than Alex did, and might even thread the Yucatan Channel which would be very bad. The ridge however would force 96L back west towards Texas. It is however very earlier to speculate on track as the situation unfolds over the next couple of days. The wave currently is organizing quicker than 93L did as surface pressures are already falling and vort is stronger at the 850 mb level than through most of 93L's time. I currently give 96L a 50-60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone the next couple days. The NHC gives it a MEDIUM 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours.



The tropics are waking up gang!

CybrTed



You could of posted that on your blog but thats ok.
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1232. Drakoen
Ship report:


Elvira

Last reported at 2010-Jul-04 18:00 UTC. Time now 2010-Jul-04 19:58 UTC.
Position N 17°48', W 082°18'.


Length 152 m; beam 23 m.

Wind from 040 at 37 knots
Waves 1.5 meters (5 feet), 3 second period


Barometer 1012.8 mb
Air temperature 27.0 ° C
Visibility: greater than 2.2 NM
Dewpoint 24.1 ° C
Water temperature 29.0 ° C


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Do Y'all think 96L will make it through the channel?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Think ima have to go with BAMM or BAMS. I have no clue what BAMD is doing!
BAMD is for deep systems. I'm going with the BAMM for the time being.

Out for now, be back later....
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21113
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:


Think ima have to go with BAMM or BAMS. I have no clue what BAMD is doing!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
A LOT of dry air.


One of the reasons it's not warm core/tropical.
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Quoting Patrap:
100 Bucks says BP gets caught with their pants around their ankles come Tuesday Morn..
They got caught with their pants down around their ankels on April 20th.
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Quoting MrstormX:
95L could be a depression shortly if the nhc sees enough breakaway from the front.
A LOT of dry air.

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Quoting StormW:
Models shifted right.


How far right?
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1224. IKE
1222...enjoy your ban.
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My update posted on here.
My discussion mostly dominates 4 area's of interest, and they will be listed from least threat to greatest threat on this blog.


95L likely to not amount to nothing much


A non-tropical low is situated about 100 miles south of Louisiana. The system is very small and very weak, with cloud tops only in the -50C range which is very warm. I expect that 95L will not amount to much more than some rain for Louisiana. 95L should continue a WNW-NW direction in the next day or so before finally making landfall. No models develop 95L, increasing the unlikelihood that it amounts to much. The NHC current gives 95L a LOW 10% chance of development in the next 48 hours.


(Most recent satellite image of 95L)

Bahamas disturbance a small threat to develop

My second discussion is on a area of convection to the east of Florida situated not to far off the Bahamas. Some of the models have been developing a trough split off Florida and developing it into at least a sub-tropical depression off the coast of the Mid-Atlantic states. The system currently is very disorganized, with no organization to speak of what so ever but does has a chance as it gradually moves N-NE the next couple of days. I give this disturbance a 20% chance of development in the next couple of days.

Lesser Antilles disturbance a threat

A Highly amplified wave is approaching the eastern Caribbean. This wave current features a sharp V-shaped axis to it, a common structure of a very powerful wave and it can be seen also on ASCAT that it is very formidable. No models develop the Lesser Antilles disturbances at this time, however water temperatures are very warm ahead of this system and I suspect that this system once it goes farther NW (this system might actually enter the Bahamas, so we'll watch it or it might go into the Western Caribbean) that this could become either Bonnie or Colin. Its defiantly a wave we need to watch even though there is very little if no model support to support the system. I current give the Lesser Antilles disturbance a 30% chance of development.


96L: The one to watch

A strong wave in the Western Caribbean is a large threat to develop over the next couple of days called Invest 96L. 96L is a very large wave and reminds me currently a lot of the invest that became Hurricane Alex, 93L. The wave currently has strong model support from the ECMWF, which is very reliable and was dead on will all of 2009's systems and with even more so with Alex in terms of genesis and track was spot on through its entire lifetime. The most recent run of the ECMWF and the CMC show the possibility that 96L will go more north than Alex did, and might even thread the Yucatan Channel which would be very bad. The ridge however would force 96L back west towards Texas. It is however very earlier to speculate on track as the situation unfolds over the next couple of days. The wave currently is organizing quicker than 93L did as surface pressures are already falling and vort is stronger at the 850 mb level than through most of 93L's time. I currently give 96L a 50-60% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone the next couple days. The NHC gives it a MEDIUM 30% chance of development over the next 48 hours.




The tropics are waking up gang!

CybrTed

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Quoting TexasHurricane:


how far right?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21113
1219. xcool



StormW. and more to come .
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Quoting StormW:
Models shifted right.


Texas or Louisiana?
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95L could be a depression shortly if the nhc sees enough breakaway from the front.
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1216. BDAwx
ok. so
1. what are the chances of 95L detatching from a front?
2. how do you tell if it is attatched to a front based on satellite (with no overlays)?
3. what difference does it make if it is a 35mph low attatched to a front or a 35mph tropical depression just detatched from a front?
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Quoting StormW:
Models shifted right.


how far right?
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Links plz Storm!
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95 Is looking like it wants to go "Humberto" on us!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
Well just put my hurricane shutters to the east end of my house, nearly half done, I'll leave the rest for later, at least their on the side of the high winds, don't want to take any chances.
Must say, I've been impressed with this little guy. lol. Steady winds and decent rains. I like when they form over/ near us because it means less of a threat, unless they stay stationary. The one entering the Caribbean now, is what I have my eye on.
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1211. xcool
Dirtleg .just guess
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my update on all 4 AOI's in the Atlantic.
Link
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1209. Seastep
Happy Independence Day!
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Quoting Dirtleg:
Anyone else notice the new spin?? Straight west of Orlando, offshore about 100 miles maybe?


Not sure what you're seeing IMO.

Member Since: February 21, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 340
1206. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
XX/95/L/
MARK
27.5N/89.8W
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1205. Dirtleg
LOL xcool. Whatsa matter? Can't take the patronization?? ;)
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back too 96L
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1203. xcool
rob mail sir
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Your just so star struck with 96L that you can't think of anything else lol...Anything aimed at my state ima keep an eye...it may not be worthy of two eyes on it but one eye at least....them things can be sneaky lol
LOL!!!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21113
1201. xcool
omg i about leave
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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