A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Look for a Special Tropical Disturbance statement this evening from the NHC concerning 95L
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting Tazmanian:



well said now what move on too 96L


Taz is right! 96L poses a bigger threat than 95L. I can't believe you all are focusing on a storm that is in a very unfavorable environment.
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Quoting fatlady99:

sing now?

Sure! lol
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I think pretty much everyone here understands that 95L is not going to turn into a Hurricane; that doesn't mean it is not worthy of discussion and tracking considering its location relative to the Horizon site and tracking towards the operational center Port for that site. It would seem those that don't wish to discuss it could simply discuss something else and there would be a much better signal to noise ratio here. Just a thought.
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1296. Patrap
95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Of course 95L needs to be of some concern due to the effect it has and will continue to have on the oil spill region

However in terms of tropical or sub-tropical development, it is very clear that the chances of such development are very low

1. It is non-tropical
2. It is still attached to the front
3. It is dealing with too much dry air
4. It is quickly running out of time



well said now what move on too 96L
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1294. xcool
DOOM
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Of course 95L needs to be of some concern due to the effect it has and will continue to have on the oil spill region

However in terms of tropical or sub-tropical development, it is very clear that the chances of such development are very low

1. It is non-tropical
2. It is still attached to the front
3. It is dealing with too much dry air
4. It is quickly running out of time
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7376
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup 95L RIP

sing now?
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Quoting xcool:
poor 95l



yup 95L RIP
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1289. xcool
poor 95l
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1288. leo305
nice anticyclone has set up over 96L
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753

Thanks Storm how you been ?
Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L ISSUED 4:00 P.M. JULY 04, 2010
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i give up
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No CLiPs wanted here!!! Storm...thanx for your update.

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Looking good

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
This is starting to look ominous.
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1282. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
1281. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting IKE:


I agree...you have.
Just that important...started about the time Alex came off the Yucatan.
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1279. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
Heck, I've been on 95L like white on rice for something like 6 days, now, just in case. Ever since 3 or 4 GFS runs consistently spun a low off of the front. I know what's at stake...


I agree...you have.
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Link

nice up close image...updates every 15 minutes.
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Quoting IKE:
Considering the oil-spill and your knowledge of weather, at least you didn't come on here and say forget about it.
Heck, I've been on 95L like white on rice for something like 6 days, now, just in case. Ever since 3 or 4 GFS runs consistently spun a low off of the front. I know what's at stake...
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Here is the San Juan forecast discussion concerning the tropical wave approaching Puerto Rico

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
311 PM AST SUN JUL 4 2010

THE WEATHER EARLY MONDAY SHOULD START OKAY...BUT AN APPROACHING
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SPREAD MOISTURE...CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO/ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE
WAVE AXIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL
ISLANDS...THAT WILL PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY...AS
THIS TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS THAT IT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN UNDERNEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE AND DIVERGENT
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL HIGH.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND PROBABLY FRIDAY ALSO...EXPECT AT
LEAST A BIT "DRIER" AIR MASS AND A NEW ROUND OF SAHARAN DUST TO
ENCOMPASS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROPICAL WAVE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE LATELY...WE WILL STILL HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&
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Quoting Dirtleg:
Anyone else notice the new spin?? Straight west of Orlando, offshore about 100 miles maybe?


DL, this a meso scale swirl.
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1274. xcool
oh boy
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904 Patrap "[95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop]"
985 Patrap "[GOES-13 Loop]"

Looks like dry air keeps trying to push in to re-expose the CoC. And that it's been standing still, though other movements in the loop indicate that it should be heading west; then either north to Houston or southwest to Tampico.
What's keeping it pinned?

1047 Patrap "100 Bucks says BP gets caught with their pants around their ankles come Tuesday Morn..

Around these here parts, it's illegal to bag a 100 bucks... plus it ain't even deer season yet.
How about some dough? There's still NoLimit huntin' on wild pizza.

926 plywoodstatenative "And everyone was wondering when the tropics would pop. How interesting that it comes on the Fourth of July."

HurricaneDennis spun up on 4July2005.
BTW: Did you get my WUmail?
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1272. IKE
Quoting atmoaggie:
To me, this plot says 95L couldn't hope to spin up and shield the dry air present before landfall. And this is way too much dry air for a RI-Humberto scenario.



Rest of the gulf, no. Enough dry air in 95L's neighborhood to inhibit? I think yes.


Considering the oil-spill and your knowledge of weather, at least you didn't come on here and say forget about it.
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L ISSUED 4:00 P.M. JULY 04, 2010

Great job StormW.
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L ISSUED 4:00 P.M. JULY 04, 2010

thank you!
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Quoting Tazmanian:
from the look at the new mode runs 96L is going right overe BP and the pizza oil
Yep. It could be close.May even become a TD tonight>
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Quoting jlp09550:


Not sure what you're seeing IMO.



I see it.
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Quoting StormW:
Hot off the press!

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 96L ISSUED 4:00 P.M. JULY 04, 2010


Thanks storm...I will be keeping an eye out.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is the wave that is east of the Islands


Lol I saved an image of it naming it "possible pre-Bonnie"

Little did I know that it's probably gonna be "possible pre-Colin"
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1265. EricSFL
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that is the wave that is east of the Islands


Ah OK.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
If it followed CLP5 and were a big, Alex-like system, could still be bad news...but not seeing it be much more than a little extra wave heights, ATM (but waves are still not good for the recovery mechanisms).


Yeah, I guess my understanding was that the canes had most wind in the NE quadrant and following the CLP5 path it would really be driving the oil inland. Then again, I have no idea which was why my last statement had a question mark.
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Quoting Drakoen:
96L is congealing a bit further east. That may help it move through the channel instead of over the tip of the Yucatan.


if it threads the needle, will it still eventually go due west in the GOMEX due to the ridge - or could the ridge shift. Just wondering.
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Quoting Progster:
The Slidell 12Z sounding may be dry, but the rest of the gulf...not so much.



Judging from the RGB 95L is detached from the frontal boundary. I didn't think much would come of it but I may be wrong..

I hope BP is ready....

To me, this plot says 95L couldn't hope to spin up and shield the dry air present before landfall. And this is way too much dry air for a RI-Humberto scenario.



Rest of the gulf, no. Enough dry air in 95L's neighborhood to inhibit? I think yes.
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04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I did, but I also posted it on here.


Oops!! I'm sorry!
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Yet 96L....Alex part deux???

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Quoting EricSFL:
What ever happened to the "landcane" we saw over Africa last week?


that is the wave that is east of the Islands
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7376
1257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
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Quoting tropicfreak:


You could of posted that on your blog but thats ok.


I did, but I also posted it on here.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:



that may soon too be come 97L
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Oh, ok, I wasn't familiar with what those model abbreviations stood for. So I guess that means BAMD is Beta Advection Deep and BAMS is Beta Advection Shallow/Beta Advection Small?


Yup,
BAMS = Beta and Advection (Shallow layer core)
BAMM = Beta and Advection (Medium layer core)
BAMD = Beta and Advection (Deep layer core)

Here's a brief description of the BAM suite from this site:

BAM (Beta and Advection Model) assumes that the hurricane moves with the aviation model's winds (vertically averaged and filtered to remove the hurricane) plus a drift toward the pole and westward due to the northward increase of the Coriolis parameter (the "beta effect"). BAM comes in three versions, shallow, medium, and deep, depending upon the depth over which the vertical average is computed.
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Quoting IKE:


The oil-volcano is at least 200 miles NNW of where those runs are.
If it followed CLP5 and were a big, Alex-like system, could still be bad news...but not seeing it be much more than a little extra wave heights, ATM (but waves are still not good for the recovery mechanisms).
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1252. IKE
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


You mean east?


Correct...I edited above.
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1251. EricSFL
What ever happened to the "landcane" we saw over Africa last week?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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