A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1350. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok listen carefully

95L has been attached to the front for 3 days now and has shown no signs of detaching from it

95L is also not tropical

95L is dealing with too much dry air, that convection will collapse tonight

95L has 24 hours to become tropical and detach from the front before it makes landfall

The timing is not there anymore, it was a few days ago but not now

Don't insult everyone here by making it seem like they don't know about meteorology; or did you not see where StormW agreed that 95L will not develop


Accuweather take....

"The wind shear around the low is expected to weaken into Monday, potentially giving the low a small window of opportunity for development. However, if the low drifts too far to the west, it will miss this opportunity."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1349. EricSFL
95L has to be the cutest spinning thing I've ever seen.
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Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
1347. Hhunter


near projected center..
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Quoting Drakoen:
Floater on 96L now


LOL...I was JUST b**ching about that...
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1344. BDAwx
Quoting BDAwx:
ok. so
1. what are the chances of 95L detatching from a front?
2. how do you tell if it is attatched to a front based on satellite (with no overlays)?
3. what difference does it make if it is a 35mph low attatched to a front or a 35mph tropical depression just detatched from a front?

any takers?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
convection on 95L appears to be collapsing now


yup
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convection on 95L appears to be collapsing now
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505
1341. Drakoen
Floater on 96L now
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1340. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/95/L
MARK
27.6N/90.2W
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53531
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok listen carefully

95L has been attached to the front for 3 days now and has shown no signs of detaching from it

95L is also not tropical

95L is dealing with too much dry air, that convection will collapse tonight

95L has 24 hours to become tropical and detach from the front before it makes landfall

The timing is not there anymore, it was a few days ago but not now

Don't insult everyone here by making it seem like they don't know about meteorology; or did you not see where StormW agreed that 95L will not develop



I agreed %100
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I think the fact that 95L wants to spin up into something tropical says a lot about the upcoming season. While I don't think we'll see the numbers of 2005, I believe this could be like that season in terms that almost every little thing wants to spin up into a tropical disturbance. I realize that 95L isn't purely tropical in nature, but given more time, I think it certainly would.
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re post


Quoting Hurricanes101:
Of course 95L needs to be of some concern due to the effect it has and will continue to have on the oil spill region

However in terms of tropical or sub-tropical development, it is very clear that the chances of such development are very low

1. It is non-tropical
2. It is still attached to the front
3. It is dealing with too much dry air
4. It is quickly running out of time




read # 2
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95L

It's detaching from the frontal boundary now and becoming more tropical. Expect a special statement later from the NHC and possible upgrade


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_GULF/anim8vis.html
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
All of you that are blowing off 95 don't know too much about meteorology. I don't know who gave you all the idea that because a disturbance is frontal that it cannot develop into a TROPICAL cyclone. It has happened many times before.

Considering the pace at which 95 developed thunderstorms and a tight circulation, it does bare watching as it is very close to land.

Don't turn a blind eye to systems... especially if they are close to land. This could develop.


ok listen carefully

95L has been attached to the front for 3 days now and has shown no signs of detaching from it

95L is also not tropical

95L is dealing with too much dry air, that convection will collapse tonight

95L has 24 hours to become tropical and detach from the front before it makes landfall

The timing is not there anymore, it was a few days ago but not now

Don't insult everyone here by making it seem like they don't know about meteorology; or did you not see where StormW agreed that 95L will not develop
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
All of you that are blowing off 95 don't know too much about meteorology. I don't know who gave you all the idea that because a disturbance is frontal that it cannot develop into a TROPICAL cyclone. It has happened many times before.

Considering the pace at which 95 developed thunderstorms and a tight circulation, it does bare watching as it is very close to land.

Don't turn a blind eye to systems... especially if they are close to land. This could develop.

True, however, realistically, the odds are 10% or less.
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Quoting fatlady99:

(soft opening chords of Requiem........)
Kyrie aaaahhoooooooooooooooooooo........
Can you sing "Magical Mystery Tour" instead?
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Quoting atmoaggie:
To me, this plot says 95L couldn't hope to spin up and shield the dry air present before landfall. And this is way too much dry air for a RI-Humberto scenario.



Rest of the gulf, no. Enough dry air in 95L's neighborhood to inhibit? I think yes.


I agree...and yet is a persistent devil...hopefully the relative shear max moving over it will kill it off shortly
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 490
Quoting fatlady99:

(soft opening chords of Requiem........)
Kyrie aaaahhoooooooooooooooooooo........

Sounds good. :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:



you got be kinding me
All of you that are blowing off 95 don't know too much about meteorology. I don't know who gave you all the idea that because a disturbance is frontal that it cannot develop into a TROPICAL cyclone. It has happened many times before.

Considering the pace at which 95 developed thunderstorms and a tight circulation, it does bare watching as it is very close to land.

Don't turn a blind eye to systems... especially if they are close to land. This could develop.
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Sure! lol

(soft opening chords of Requiem........)
Kyrie aaaahhoooooooooooooooooooo........
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doesn't matter if it develops or not, just what is the impact of the system will do to the area is worth keeping an eye on it for some of us that live in the area
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1326. xcool
96L MOVE TO NW
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guys plz stop with this 95L is not any thing like HUMBERTO
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What's the point of SSD having 4 different floaters if they aren't going to use them on the invests we have? Thank God for NASA satellites.
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all this talk is takeing us a way from 96L can we get back too 96L and the wave be hid and by the look at it the wave be hid 96L is starting too get it act too geter
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Quoting Tazmanian:
95L is not the one that need too be watch its 96L and the wave be hide it


Wrong, they both need to be watched and depending on ones local- given the appropriate amount of consideration. Because it may not affect YOU does not mean it is irrelevant to others. I have to assume you are very young.
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1321. leo305
Quoting Patrap:
Taz,,we never discount a active invest in that locale..and the NHC dosent either.


With age comes experience.

Always.



Thank you.. anything can happen.. and it looks better in terms of structure, all it needs is convection, and we are in DMIN, so again it's something we should keep an eye on even if the chances are low.. look at HUMBERTO.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting kuppenskup:


I think he meant 96L



nop he was talking about 95L
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Look for a Special Tropical Disturbance statement this evening from the NHC concerning 95L


Umm James, 95L isn't even tropical. What kind of a tropical cyclone has a 200mb trough aloft?
Member Since: September 7, 2008 Posts: 17 Comments: 1604
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you need to stop

95L is NOT going to develop


I think he meant 96L
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1317. EricSFL
IN MY OPINION (before I get poofed by some) 95L looks better on visible satellite than Marco did.
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95L is not the one that need too be watch its 96L and the wave be hide it
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1315. Patrap
Taz,,we never discount a active invest in that locale..and the NHC dosent either.


With age comes experience.

Always.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Hurricanes101:


you need to stop

95L is NOT going to develop



yes he need too stop in fac i stop tracking it
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1312. xcool
ThePlywoodState BYE
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Look for a Special Tropical Disturbance statement this evening from the NHC concerning 95L



you got be kinding me
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Outflow on 96L is beginning to look impressive
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1309. IKE
Nice little curve on the north side of 95L...

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
Look for a Special Tropical Disturbance statement this evening from the NHC concerning 95L


you need to stop

95L is NOT going to develop
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7505
1306. Patrap
Hurricane Cindy July 5-6 2005




95L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Patrap
In your second pic-- looks like 2 eyes coming in
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
where's levi when we need him? gang, remember, I updated my blog, plz go check it out, :).



so you update your blog you dont need too keep saying it
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un oh


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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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