A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Oh I forgot there is no actual factual evidence that is posted on this site lol

It is all opinion *rolls eyes*
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok listen carefully

95L has been attached to the front for 3 days now and has shown no signs of detaching from it

95L is also not tropical

95L is dealing with too much dry air, that convection will collapse tonight

95L has 24 hours to become tropical and detach from the front before it makes landfall

The timing is not there anymore, it was a few days ago but not now

Don't insult everyone here by making it seem like they don't know about meteorology; or did you not see where StormW agreed that 95L will not develop


What alot of you (like you, Taz, sitting in CA, and Levi in AK and you, MH09 at 13 years old) seem to forget is that those of us who live right HERE, in Louisiana, ARE interested in 95L, because regardless of what it does it WILL affect OUR weather and our lives (oil spill).

None of us expects it to be the next Alex or whatever, but I've lived here all my life (51 years) and I've seen alot of strange things happen. My family business has been destroyed twice (Betsy and Katrina), so I don't turn my back on ANYTHING until its inland and dissipated.

So, if YOU don't want to discuss 95L, that's fine, but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.
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Quoting rarepearldesign:


I don't know much about these maps as an observer and not a tracker but my understanding is at 144hrs it's still down by the Carolina's.
Is it possible NE could get hit by Friday? I need to know.
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1397. BDAwx
Quoting StormW:


Go here, and click fronts

GOMEX


what do they use to determine that there is a front there because, from my untrained eye, looking at the satellite loop i see no front
Quoting StormW:

Tropical systems do not have have frontal characteristics

I mean in terms of the effects on land

I don't actually expect the storm to develop :)
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1396. Patrap


Whatever spawns the system isnt the important thing.

Ever.

The situational Impact and location bears that 95L be observed as its future will determine to a degree,,the one behind it.


The Longer 95L remains in the N GOM,,it will have greater bearing on the one below.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
96L is looking like a TD now. Has the winds and the convection but not sure if there is a closed low. Moving slowly along a different track than Alex,pulling up to the NW for what appears to be a run through the Yucatan channel.

TCHP not exceptional due to recent cooling but higher than what Alex had to work with.

Could be a TS before leaving the NW Caribbean.
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Quoting HurricaneKatrina:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010070212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Ani mation


I don't know much about these maps as an observer and not a tracker but my understanding is at 144hrs it's still down by the Carolina's.
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think the HH will find a name storm or a TD sunday

It looks like an open wave, not a closed Low. We no longer have Quikscat to see whether we have a closed low. The other satellite that can look to see if we have a closed Low missed 96L 2x today.

If the NHC determines there is a closed surface Low, we will have a TD.
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1391. Hhunter
center must be a little south south west of this plot with winds out of the south southeast
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Quoting StormW:
Ok gang...here's the deal on 95L ...UNTIL IT DETACHES FROM THE FRONT, it WILL NOT be classified TROPICAL or SUBTROPICAL...PERIOD!

I brought out this point to Dr. Beven (NHC MIAMI)at the National Hurricane conference, regarding that N.J system we had last year, that we thought was subtropical given what we saw. He pointed out, they did not name it for the same reason 95L is not named...IT'S ATTACHED TO THE STATIONARY FRONT!


Thank you. So if this blob DETACHES FROM THE FRONT, and strengthens, then it could be classified TROPICAL or SUBTROPICAL, correct?
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Looks like Bonnie wants to form in the Western Caribbean. NHC should rise chances to 40-50% by 8 p.m. It's looking good. 95L has a nice little vortex going on over there.. sigh, to bad it's NON-TROPICAL. To also note, the track will most likely not be to Mexico, I'm seeing a northwesterly flow unlike a westward flow we saw with Alex. At least form the steering maps earlier today. I see 96L heading towards Texas, just my opinion. I just don't see a westward trend with this one, we have a trough from the midwest to Texas, this should pull 96L north over the next few days.
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1387. Patrap
This entry provided by Dr. Jeff Masters..

..is for "all" opinions and discussions on the Tropical Situ's at hand.

If anyone thinks they can dictate whats discussed here,,they should find another place to blog.






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128645
How the moisture of 96L will affect South Florida???,we have straight rain and thunders all day today here in Mimai,and looking at the satellite it seems like the (wants to be bands) from 96L,are coming our way north over Cuba,wondering if it get better organized and go thru the Yucatan channel how the system will affect South Florida if we get the North East part of the storm,meaning probably some wind scualls and a lot of rain??.
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Quoting rarepearldesign:


Yes, being from Nova Scotia I would also like to know this.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010070212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation
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Quoting StormW:


Go here, and click fronts

GOMEX



QS fronts don't advect, though. This frontal analysis is bogus.
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Quoting xcool:
96L MOVE TO NW
Do you think it will thread the channel?
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i think the HH will find a name storm or a TD sunday
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1380. IKE
95L looped
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
Whats the chance that the blob east of Florida could develop and hit NE in the next 5 days?


Yes, being from Nova Scotia I would also like to know this.
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Looks like it's detaching now from the front


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_GULF/anim8vis.html
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Quoting Tazmanian:



wow

96L is slowly & steadily getting itself together today.
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Quoting Progster:


uhh...is that an itty bitty eyewall on the vis loop????

No, it is a dry slot slowly filling in. It is probably not a closed Low pressure system yet!!
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Whats the chance that the blob east of Florida could develop and hit NE in the next 5 days?
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1371. Hhunter
96L our western carribean friend..check out the link i posted a little bit ago
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Quoting Bordonaro:

96L, in the Western Caribbean Sea.



wow
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Quoting StormW:


Go here, and click fronts

GOMEX



I did that, StormW, but I'm not sure what it all means. I see the front, but could you please explain what that means in terms of a storm NOT developing because of it?

Thank you.
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1368. Hhunter
highest one minute wind currently 32.5knots for 96L
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Quoting Tazmanian:


with wish one?

96L, in the Western Caribbean Sea.
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Quoting StormW:

Tropical systems do not have have frontal characteristics


Take a hammer and beat it into everyone's head, Storm! How many times do you have to say it before people will believe you? I think the map you just posted speaks for itself...
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Quoting Hhunter:
29knots sustained with gusts to 35 knots..29.85 pressure


with wish one?
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Sounds good. :)

thank you, ma'am!
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Quoting Tazmanian:


yup
Taz, Hurricanes101, maybe you can explain the "gust outflows" that are clearly visible on the visible loop. Maybe that will knock some sense into em.
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1362. Hhunter
29knots sustained with gusts to 35 knots..29.85 pressure
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/95/L
MARK
27.6N/90.2W


uhh...is that an itty bitty eyewall on the vis loop????
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Quoting muddertracker:
Can you sing "Magical Mystery Tour" instead?

I caught your edit. My songs, like my little jokes, are meant to amuse. Not to insult anyone.

I've been a lurker on this board since 2004, and respect the knowledge I find here. I'm not making any judgements about any particular invest. I rely on you expert folks to do that. I read for my own knowledge since I live in a highly hurricane prone environment. Thanks for all the good work, even when y'all argue it's still educational.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Floater on 96L now


And btw, the circular appearance of 96L shows that there is almost zero shear over the system.
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1284 Hardcoreweather2010 "[95L] Looking good"

But the radar in Patrap's 1282 and 1306 shows dry air eating convection all the way to the core.
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1356. Greyelf
Re: 1301 JFV clone - "updated your blog"?!? It's more like - created a blog - and..if no one has gone to read it yet after all the prompting you've done to get people to go, then no one is going to. The only updating you've done today is to your logon here with a new name.
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1355. Hhunter
Link

this gives you all the details on the reporting station
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1354. Drakoen
Quoting MississippiWx:


LOL...I was JUST b**ching about that...


They read your post.
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1353. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/96/L
MARK
16.9N/81.9W
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.