A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Drakoen:
96L has yet to develop a surface circulation. Surface observations do support a position further east and north of the 18z initialization. I would put the system near 17.4N 81.9W based on surface observations.
Drak, what is your take on the wave near the Lesser Antilles?
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1450. Hhunter
16.834 N 81.501 W

coordinates of the weather station where i just posted that 37knot 1 minute south wind
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting kmanislander:
I just checked a few obs along the N coast of Honduras and winds everywhere are out of the SE. Nothing indicating a closed surface low to the N with 96L at this time.
Power was off for about 2 hours up here and just came back on.
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Quoting Patrap:
96L 18Z Model run

what does the clp5 model miss that the hwrf model picks up on and curves 96 so far south
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It appears 95L's development is being held hostage by NHC's interpretations of climatology?
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Quoting RobertM320:


What alot of you (like you, Taz, sitting in CA, and Levi in AK and you, MH09 at 13 years old) seem to forget is that those of us who live right HERE, in Louisiana, ARE interested in 95L, because regardless of what it does it WILL affect OUR weather and our lives (oil spill).

None of us expects it to be the next Alex or whatever, but I've lived here all my life (51 years) and I've seen alot of strange things happen. My family business has been destroyed twice (Betsy and Katrina), so I don't turn my back on ANYTHING until its inland and dissipated.

So, if YOU don't want to discuss 95L, that's fine, but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.

I personally feel bad that you have been negatively affected by the BP oil spill. I understand your concerns and it is something to watch. Thankfully it will most likely just remain a weak non-tropical Low and move into the TX/LA border area and get caught up in the upper flow and move away.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
1443. Hhunter
this wind just posted is due south. center would be due west of here
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting StormW:
Gang, form my point of view..not saying 95L doesn't need to be watched, as wherever it goes, it should be a weather maker. The point I was making is, NHC won't name it until it is free from the front, based on their criteria.
Exactly my point.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Those of us that reside on the gulf coast are perhaps more sensitive to potential weather events and are more experienced with rapidly changing conditions,from tropical systems.Just like those that reside in tornado alley,are possibly more sensitive to developing tornado conditions.
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I just checked a few obs along the N coast of Honduras and winds everywhere are out of the SE. Nothing indicating a closed surface low to the N with 96L at this time.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
You don't seem to understand my point of view. Although 95L is not of my concern it is yours, and I completely understand that because of the oil spill recovery efforts. Now here's the thing, I'm just going to forecast what is of tropical concern, and obviously 95L is barely any threat to develop. That's why I'm not focused on 95L and yes on 96L.



ok 101 and 09 what this drop it and move on un less you want a 24hr bannd wish i dont think you dont
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I think that was the point most of us where trying to get to lol


I understand your point, Hurricanes101, but you know what, 96L won't be on my doorstep Monday morning, or even Tuesday for that matter.
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1437. Patrap
96L 18Z Model run
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
96L days away from effecting anybody

95L The threat is now

I am not saying that we shouldn't worry about 96L just that we have concerns closer to home that you can't ignore. Have a great 4th James n Mobile
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1435. BDAwx
In other news, doesn't the Atlantic's 26*F border seem a little far north? Do we have records for that?
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1433. Hhunter
Supplemental Measurements Highest 1-minute Wind Speed
Time (EDT) WSPD WDIR
4:06 pm 36.9 kts S ( 170 deg true )
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Quoting RobertM320:


What alot of you (like you, Taz, sitting in CA, and Levi in AK and you, MH09 at 13 years old) seem to forget is that those of us who live right HERE, in Louisiana, ARE interested in 95L, because regardless of what it does it WILL affect OUR weather and our lives (oil spill).

None of us expects it to be the next Alex or whatever, but I've lived here all my life (51 years) and I've seen alot of strange things happen. My family business has been destroyed twice (Betsy and Katrina), so I don't turn my back on ANYTHING until its inland and dissipated.

So, if YOU don't want to discuss 95L, that's fine, but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.
You don't seem to understand my point of view. Although 95L is not of my concern it is yours, and I completely understand that because of the oil spill recovery efforts. Now here's the thing, I'm just going to forecast what is of tropical concern, and obviously 95L is barely any threat to develop. That's why I'm not focused on 95L and yes on 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting tropicfreak:


Guys why are we focused so much on 95L when its in an unfavorable environment. Why aren't we paying any attention to 96L? It poses the greatest threat right now. So the reality is, 95L won't develop. 96L is better organized, and is continuing to organize as well.


I think that was the point most of us where trying to get to lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7824
Quoting btwntx08:

u been reported thats a threat to other bloggers here


thats a threat??? I guess I must be pretty ignorant, but how pray tell, is that a threat? The only threat I see right now is 96L.
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Quoting btwntx08:

u been reported thats a threat to other bloggers here
How is that a threat to anyone?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
If 95L were not attached to the front, I agree different story

but look at the convection on 95L, it is weak for the most part and the NHC has become less confident in its chances of development


Guys why are we focused so much on 95L when its in an unfavorable environment. Why aren't we paying any attention to 96L? It poses the greatest threat right now. So the reality is, 95L won't develop. 96L is better organized, and is continuing to organize as well.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Exactly



i 2nd that
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Quoting StormW:


Well, that's what I thought too, but this was the same setup with that N.J. system last year.


Yah, that was a weird one.

the Phase diagrams:

Link

suggests (at least from the GFS analysis), a shallow warm core system. Not tropical; barely subtropical - a construction more like a "polar low" (albeit in a much different environment). I think 95L given more time could convert bottom up but given the flow and shear environment it is unlikely to do so. The frontal analysis looks more like a "dry line" analysis; though aloft, not at the surface.
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Quoting StormW:
Gang, form my point of view..not saying 95L doesn't need to be watched, as wherever it goes, it should be a weather maker. The point I was making is, NHC won't name it, based on their criteria.


Exactly
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7824
1413 CybrTeddy "If this wasn't still attached to the front its probable this would be TD2."

Ya can't have half of a TropicalDepression. Heck, it'd probably be totally dried out if it weren't for the front.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I never said no one could talk about 95L, but Hardcore is going way overboard claiming 95L is becoming a TD and that the NHC should be coming out with a special advisory to do so. Completely ignoring what anyone says to disagree with him and continues to say that this should be classified



If you don't agree that's fine, just don't pay any attention to him and go back to looking at 96L. Truth is, I don't agree with him either, but I'm sure not going to ignore 95L either.
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If 95L were not attached to the front, I agree different story

but look at the convection on 95L, it is weak for the most part and the NHC has become less confident in its chances of development
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7824
1417. Drakoen
96L has yet to develop a surface circulation. Surface observations do support a position further east and north of the 18z initialization. I would put the system near 17.4N 81.9W based on surface observations.
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Quoting tropicaltank:
I live on the coast,Gulfport,MS,and remain interested in 95L,no matter what you call it.


thank you, tropical, my point exactly
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1414. Hhunter
35knot wind gust near 96L at 3:48 pm central time
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
If this wasn't still attached to the front its probable this would be TD2.

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Quoting RobertM320:


What alot of you (like you, Taz, sitting in CA, and Levi in AK and you, MH09 at 13 years old) see to forget is that those of us who live right HERE, in Louisiana, ARE interested in 95L, because regardless of what it does it WILL affect OUR weather and our lives (oil spill).

None of us expects it to be the next Alex or whatever, but I've lived here all my life (51 years) and I've seen alot of strange things happen. My family business has been destroyed twice (Betsy and Katrina), so I don't turn my back on ANYTHING until its inland and dissipated.

So, if YOU don't want to discuss 95L, that's fine, but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.


I never said no one could talk about 95L, but Hardcore is going way overboard claiming 95L is becoming a TD and that the NHC should be coming out with a special advisory to do so. Completely ignoring what anyone says to disagree with him and continues to say that this should be classified

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7824
1411. Patrap
A Blind duck in Bangkok can see the closed Low spinning on the RGB Loop easily.

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Click FRONTS and MSLP for more spurious info as well.

And Maybe take a gander at the radar.

That always helps in a, er,.."Synopsis"

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128668
1399 + 1
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Wasn't it Claudette last year that went from code yellow to a TD so it can happen even if conditions are not favorable
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I live on the coast,Gulfport,MS,and remain interested in 95L,no matter what you call it.
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Quoting HurricaneKatrina:
Is it possible NE could get hit by Friday? I need to know.


Haha, I think we are both looking for the same answer. I don't know man. Hopefully, someone can tell us.
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Just wrote a blog on 95L and 96L.
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1404. Hhunter
Member Since: August 19, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 2973
Storm do you think the latest model tracks have brought the storm more north/east from last ones?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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