A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1501 - 1451

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

1501. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool



Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting Tazmanian:



will you 2 this stop with the bickering. and keep me out of it thank you or i will start re porting you


You are reporting people for no reason. Please at least try to see the other side. While I'm not in LA, I can. People can talk about 95L if they want.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool




then whats talk about 96L and the wave be hid
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
Quoting btwntx08:

u been reported thats a threat to other bloggers here
Quoting btwntx08:

u been reported thats a threat to other bloggers here

Where was the threat? I'm sorry, but reporting people because they are concern about a system is rather petty, don't you think?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1497. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, Ike What is going on in here this evening? I come in to check on 95 & 96 and find more arguing. Can't anyone discuss any storm they wish to discuss on a weather blog?



Im in and out with Baby Back ribs and I see the same.

Its down right embarrassing.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1495. Patrap
95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
I think 96L may be a TD tonight.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1493. bappit
Quoting Patrap:
A Blind duck in Bangkok can see the closed Low spinning on the RGB Loop easily.

95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop

Click FRONTS and MSLP for more spurious info as well.

And Maybe take a gander at the radar.

That always helps in a, er,.."Synopsis"


Hey something's spinning around a bit there, eh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Pat, Ike What is going on in here this evening? I come in to check on 95 & 96 and find more arguing. Can't anyone discuss any storm they wish to discuss on a weather blog?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Greyelf:
To RobertM320 - I just wanted to post to let you know that someone here does understand what you're trying to have a discussion about...you're not expecting a tropical system to develop into a cat 5 hurricane. You just want to know what kind of heavy weather might be coming your way and how heavy it may be. I'm not sure why Taz is so incensed and wanting bans just because he thinks it's a waste of time to discuss 95L. I also have no clue what Btwntx08 thinks constitutes a "threat" in any post you've made.

At the very least, I just wanted to let you know that at least someone gets what you're trying to discuss.


thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
The bottom line is this Technically qualifies as a TD. Let's wait and see what the NHC does this evening. Time for some BBQ :) Happy 4th USA and Weatherunderground bloggers


How does it qualify as a TD when it is still attached to the front?

That is our only issue here, you can talk about 95L all you want, but you seem to be ignoring the obvious facts that this is still attached to the front, has too much dry air around it and is running out of time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Kristina40:

Uhm no, he said he was tired of people telling others that were discussing 95L to shut up. Tas has been wasting bandwitdth for the past two hours telling others what they should and should not discuss. I just solved the problem by putting him on ignore as it was obvious he is not going to stop making inane posts anytime soon.


Thank you, Kristina
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Is that you JFV ?. Man you have more lives than a black cat.

To answer your question, it does not appear that 96L will be a threat to us other than the rain and high winds we are currently receiving from it.



yes its him this go too his blog and look up and see what it says at the end
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
The bottom line is this Technically qualifies as a TD. Let's wait and see what the NHC does this evening. Time for some BBQ :) Happy 4th USA and Weatherunderground bloggers
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1481. IKE
1471...bye.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Link

My blog: Tropical Atlantic Awakens
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Hey KMan, is 96L a Caymen Islands threater for you and StormWatcher, up there?


Is that you JFV ?. Man you have more lives than a black cat.

To answer your question, it does not appear that 96L will be a threat to us other than the rain and high winds we are currently receiving from it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1477. IKE
1468....I'll take Accuweather's take over yours. You are like 99% of the rest of us...amateur bloggers.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1476. Patrap
Quoting Greyelf:
To RobertM320 - I just wanted to post to let you know that someone here does understand what you're trying to have a discussion about...you're not expecting a tropical system to develop into a cat 5 hurricane. You just want to know what kind of heavy weather might be coming your way and how heavy it may be. I'm not sure why Taz is so incensed and wanting bans just because he thinks it's a waste of time to discuss 95L. I also have no clue what Btwntx08 thinks constitutes a "threat" in any post you've made.

At the very least, I just wanted to let you know that at least someone gets what you're trying to discuss.


Indeed, and I for one concur.

All views within Logic and reason are always welcome.

The monomania iz ridiculous.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127814
Quoting btwntx08:
95L doesnt have deep convection just weak convection and NOTHING is gonna form out of this period....how many thimes do we have to say this its ATTACHED TO A FRONT NO DEVELOPMENT PERIOD!!!!!!!!!!!!


Time for you to join your friend, signal to noise is out of control
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1474. Hhunter
just got 41 knot wind gust however
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I see everyone point on 95L yes it's still attached to the stalled front I also see 1399's
point on this matter as I also will be drasticly affected by this to.
Best advice check NHC site for offical info on these storms and storm track's.
We all follow this site and this blog for any info we can get but I do not follow this site when my family and friends live's may depend on it. just my opinon thanks. DC
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
I swear people here poof and report others for stupid reasons! :( 96l looks good and 95l could do anythnig before landfall. Watch it!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1469. Greyelf
To RobertM320 - I just wanted to post to let you know that someone here does understand what you're trying to have a discussion about...you're not expecting a tropical system to develop into a cat 5 hurricane. You just want to know what kind of heavy weather might be coming your way and how heavy it may be. I'm not sure why Taz is so incensed and wanting bans just because he thinks it's a waste of time to discuss 95L. I also have no clue what Btwntx08 thinks constitutes a "threat" in any post you've made.

At the very least, I just wanted to let you know that at least someone gets what you're trying to discuss.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Progster:


There are more things under heaven and earth than are dreamt of in our philosophy - (with apologies to Hamlet :)

Indeed. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

dont get the point do u he said everyone to shutup which is wrong in here

Uhm no, he said he was tired of people telling others that were discussing 95L to shut up. Tas has been wasting bandwitdth for the past two hours telling others what they should and should not discuss. I just solved the problem by putting him on ignore as it was obvious he is not going to stop making inane posts anytime soon.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1463. Hhunter
yep kamen i just checked some other weather stations all the wind is coming south.southeast..can't find any west or north or east winds yet. for 96l
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
you guys are saying 81.9W I am seeing it at 17.0N 81.2W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Power was off for about 2 hours up here and just came back on.


I know. Sorry about that, a circuit was out. Probably something to do with the weather conditions today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...in fact, I got into a "lengthy" discussion with Beven on it. But he told me, it was too frontal in nature. Strange.


There are more things under heaven and earth than are dreamt of in our philosophy - (with apologies to Hamlet :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
there is a lot of bickering going on about 95L may be we would this move on
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
Quoting fldude99:
Yous guys can watch 95, 96 or whatever else..I'm gonna go watch the ribs & brats on the grill



send me some may way
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114956
Got the chase gear loaded up and ready for 95L :) Look at that new burst of convection right over the center
Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.

tellin us that according to that it is


That is not English. And the post was certainly no threat.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yous guys can watch 95, 96 or whatever else..I'm gonna go watch the ribs & brats on the grill
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting rmbjoe1954:
It appears 95L's development is being held hostage by NHC's interpretations of climatology?


No it is being held hostage by the fact that it is still attached to the front, has unfavorable conditions around it and has very little time before it makes landfall to do anything

not climatology; meteorology :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
96L has yet to develop a surface circulation. Surface observations do support a position further east and north of the 18z initialization. I would put the system near 17.4N 81.9W based on surface observations.
Drak, what is your take on the wave near the Lesser Antilles?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1501 - 1451

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
79 °F
Overcast