A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.



my poor F 5 key
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
5100. Seastep
Sorry, forgot the pic in 5055...

Here it is:

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Good evening granny
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5096. xcool
WHY ROB
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Quoting Tazmanian:
how march longer in tell this site updates


Link
Updates are given every 6 hours, next one is at 00:00 UTC. Basically wait another hour.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting aquak9:


they float.


HAH!
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Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?


Various ways. The wild ones do as well, watch the birds. When they go silent and disappear, it might be time to hunker down. The domestics tend to act distressed, like they instinctively know they should be running. Dog paces from room to room and wants to be as close to me as possible. The cats pace and meow and run around like loons.
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how march longer in tell this site updates


Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114728
You are right about 96l.I think I looked at an earlier post.Im sorry.And wow for 95l.It held in there.
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5089. aquak9
Quoting skkippboo:


How do they let you know?


they float.
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Quoting Patrap:


Its in the Null spot as to Forward motion,

. seems the tightening of the Wind Field or circ is keeping it there as well.



Goes13 low cloud product shows slow westerly drift as well...
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5087. oakland
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
that blob of rain is what is giving us the flood warnings in south eastern broward. Its like each day we are getting pounded with either heat or rain.


I've been watching the western side of it move my way all day. I'm amazed it held together all the way from Naples
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Now on 95L, this coming from the Weather Channel that it could easily be named a tropical storm by landfall and that the national hurricane center was actually keeping a close eye on its development even though it was coming onshore into the Louisiana parish's. So with that said, are we looking at something like that for the rest of the season or something else?
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5085. aquak9
hanna, kristen- didn't know what other states it applied to.

watches/warnings have their good points and bad points.

I prefer picking apart the macrame of information here on WU, than being fed the stuff they feed the sheeple.
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Quoting stormpetrol:
I see 2 possible centers, one at 19.7N/83.8W , another at 18N/82.5W and I'm still confused!
96L has multiple vorticies so it makes it difficult to pinpoint.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting hurricanehanna:

amen to that...my two dogs always let us know when the barometer drops...


How do they let you know?
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Quoting BiloxiIsle:

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.
I agree Biloxi. We had a shepard during Camille and she went nuts. All night long we had to try and keep her calm. We lived in Gulfport at the time
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I said 96L seemed to be trying to pull itself back together earlier in the day. It still does.
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Quoting Patrap:


ahhh...tropical rain bands...and warm wet nearly firm land to sweeten it's path across the bayous...
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For the last couple weeks the local news reports were stating the oil would probably not reach south Florida.

This isn't good news for south Florida. Why hire if the oil is not on its way? Could all this storm activity have something to do with this, or is it merely political?

BP Hiring 300 S. Floridians To Build Oil Response Team

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I see 2 possible centers, one at 19.7N/83.8W , another at 18N/82.5W and I'm still confused!
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Looking at the visible, 95L actually does look like a TD, a very small TD at that. The little guy came really close, but no cigar, in other words, no classification.
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that blob of rain is what is giving us the flood warnings in south eastern broward. Its like each day we are getting pounded with either heat or rain.
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96L doesn't look too bad to me:

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Quoting Kristina40:


They are, I trust the critters far more than I trust my local weather people. They don't need fancy devices to sense pressure drops.

amen to that...my two dogs always let us know when the barometer drops...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
As if the blog isn't long enough now, get ready for the 100 TWO's that are going to be posted...

hahaha good point
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Quoting taco2me61:

Be very "Carful What You Ask For"
It might be more than we all want....

LOL
Taco :o)
Be quiet, be very quiet....LOL
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5070. Patrap
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?


Its in the Null spot as to Forward motion,

. seems the tightening of the Wind Field or circ is keeping it there as well.

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Quoting BiloxiIsle:

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.


They are, I trust the critters far more than I trust my local weather people. They don't need fancy devices to sense pressure drops.
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Hello everyone.So it looks like 96l is struggling tonight.Does anyone think it will get better organized this evening?


96L's actually becoming better organized. 95L's at a red alert right now too.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23572
Hello everyone.So it looks like 96l is struggling tonight.Does anyone think it will get better organized this evening?
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Quoting stormpetrol:
best spin i seen with 96L yet, it might get bumped to 40% at 8pm est
It will likely go to 40%, but IMO should be raised further to 50% or even 60%.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Kristina40:


I have six little mini "Hurricanes" to tear my house up. When 95L was forming near hear they all went to acting crazy for a couple days, the Greyhound joined them in the fun.

you know, they say animals are a good gauge for storms.
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5064. Seastep
For 96L, StormW and Drak have taken the higher % route.

I'm going with CosmicEvents position, though.

Surface obs. No one really knows though. Another interesting one.
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best spin i seen with 96L yet, it might get bumped to 40% at 8pm est
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95L making a hard left ? What do you think Pat ?
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Quoting msgambler:
It rained down here from 5 till about 8:30. Came in from the Bay, but we needed it.

Be very "Carful What You Ask For"
It might be more than we all want....

LOL
Taco :o)
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As if the blog isn't long enough now, get ready for the 100 TWO's that are going to be posted...
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Just some questions from a new blogger, but long time lurker trying to learn more. There has been a blob of rain each morning now off of the southwest FL coast that sends a shield of rain up through central FL. Is this due to a stalled front? What how do I distinguish between upper and lower level spin in the clouds that I see on satellite?
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That's a good point aqua. Guess the people in LA should be happy no name for "lil fella".
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I'm sorry to veer off topic.. but this just makes me angry and I have to vent this out. I personally know Charley, he's a great man, a former astro and a former Marine general.. I don't think he would say that.

NASA Chief: Next Frontier Better Relations With Muslim World

NASA Administrator Charles Bolden said in a recent interview that his "foremost" mission as the head of America's space exploration agency is to improve relations with the Muslim world.

Though international diplomacy would seem well outside NASA's orbit, Bolden said in an interview with Al Jazeera that strengthening those ties was among the top tasks President Obama assigned him. He said better interaction with the Muslim world would ultimately advance space travel.

"When I became the NASA administrator -- or before I became the NASA administrator -- he charged me with three things. One was he wanted me to help re-inspire children to want to get into science and math, he wanted me to expand our international relationships, and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science ... and math and engineering," Bolden said in the interview.

The NASA administrator was in the Middle East last month marking the one-year anniversary since Obama delivered an address to Muslim nations in Cairo. Bolden spoke in June at the American University in Cairo -- in his interview with Al Jazeera, he described space travel as an international collaboration of which Muslim nations must be a part.

"It is a matter of trying to reach out and get the best of all worlds, if you will, and there is much to be gained by drawing in the contributions that are possible from the Muslim (nations)," he said. He held up the International Space Station as a model, praising the contributions there from the Russians and the Chinese.

However, Bolden denied the suggestion that he was on a diplomatic mission -- in a distinctly non-diplomatic role.

"Not at all. It's not a diplomatic anything," he said.

He said the United States is not going to travel beyond low-Earth orbit on its own and that no country is going to make it to Mars without international help.

Bolden has faced criticism this year for overseeing the cancellation of the agency's Constellation program, which was building new rockets and spaceships capable of returning astronauts to the moon. Stressing the importance of international cooperation in future missions, Bolden told Al Jazeera that the moon, Mars and asteroids are still planned destinations for NASA.

I promise not to go off topic again.
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5056. Patrap
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5055. Seastep
OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off.

You obviously don't live in FL.

Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm.

This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago.



95L is not going to produce that. Not even close.

If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough.

I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for.

Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move.

Looks nice, though. ;)
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Quoting aquak9:
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.

same here in LA aqua....named storm deductible kicks in.
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Quoting BiloxiIsle:

lol, that's ok. Although, at times, she acts like a hurricane...tearing through the house


I have six little mini "Hurricanes" to tear my house up. When 95L was forming near hear they all went to acting crazy for a couple days, the Greyhound joined them in the fun.
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5052. aquak9
Actually, it's better for home-owners who sustain damage, to NOT have any sort of named storm watch/warning in place. At least here in Florida.

Tree falls on house in summer thunderstorm- ya pay yer deductable, all's cool.

Same tree, same damage, during a named storm watch/warning? You gotta pay the "hurricane" deductable first, which could be ten times as much as the regular deductable.

Zombie alert back to code null. Rabies shot still on schedule.
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Not often we get Model consensus like this :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


how do you get that on google earth?
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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