A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Looks like its time for the serious people on here to go to the alternate site, until the nonsense blows over.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherwart:
What the...? I think I'll go get Chinese take-out and come back later.



good point i may go fix me up a little pizza be good kids
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What the...? I think I'll go get Chinese take-out and come back later.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


95L is getting its act together. In the past few hours, it has competely separated from the front, and has developed a well-defined circulation. It looks like a subtropical storm, a smaller version of Edouard in 2008.



Models expect the storm to make landfall in Louisiana, then loop back eastward, possibly into the Gulf Stream.



96L is strengthening as well. Convergence is occurring on satellite imagery, and the newly developed circulation is especially apparent on the storm's south and west sides. NHC recon should investigate both systems very soon.


Wow, looks like 96L will be a TS tomorrow!
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Quoting Kristina40:


Time for you to join your friend, signal to noise is out of control


This is why i have him on ignore! Gah lol
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1544. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting BreadandCircuses:
em>
soon to be replaced with empty space
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53787
Quoting btwntx08:
sry all i was mad at something and got me ticked off sry about everything im just not me this past hr so ike uningore me and taz this thing is over...this stuff happens when i get pissed so sorry all



i think you sould e mail that too him
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oh yeah guys pressures are falling pretty good now just a while ago pressure was 1013.2 Mb now 1011.9 and dropping at airport in G.T. in Grand Cayman
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Quoting tropicfreak:


Guys why are we focused so much on 95L when its in an unfavorable environment. Why aren't we paying any attention to 96L? It poses the greatest threat right now. So the reality is, 95L won't develop. 96L is better organized, and is continuing to organize as well.
So why'd I have to come back in here to read all this unnecessary bickering? Someone said last month some time that pple in here need to learn to multi-task, because we SHO-NUFF won't be having one system at a time at the height of this season.... we need to get used to talking about 3 or 4 systems at a time, instead of demanding that only one be the main point of discussion. And look at the TOPIC of today's discussion, which says that both invests are worth talking about.... let's stop wasting our energies rowing about which one is more important, because that's going to differ depending on where the system is in relation to you.

And let's be more tolerant of other pple's interests, because by definition pple in different locations are going to have different priorities. As a case in point, I'm still much more interested in a) the stalled out front near me and b) the Twave coming up against the eastern Antilles, simply because they are the ones most likely to impact me personally. Should I be insisting that nobody talk about 95L or 96L? After all, they're only going to hit the GoM!

We need to have lots of different voices talking about the different aspects of the wx situation that make up the overall picture. Let's work together, agree to disagree where necessary, and get the job done.
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IKE mail
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1538. Dirtleg
bigdoge3....read your email for the latest update
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Quoting BreadandCircuses:


I gotta come out of a %#@&*$% up-tempo record and talk about somebody's dead %#@*&$% dog!!


i would we move that if i where you
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I think I'll come back later. Trying to navigate through this blog now is like driving a road filled with pot holes.
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WOW..tough crowd today...lots to watch that's interesting. Maybe instead of chillin'out some of us should be grillin' out. Happy 4th all! Check back later...
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Don't make me bring my rubber flyswatter in here to whack a few butts!....play nice guys - lol
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1532. jpritch
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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95L is getting its act together. In the past few hours, it has competely separated from the front, and has developed a well-defined circulation. It looks like a subtropical storm, a smaller version of Edouard in 2008.



Models expect the storm to make landfall in Louisiana, then loop back eastward, possibly into the Gulf Stream.



96L is strengthening as well. Convergence is occurring on satellite imagery, and the newly developed circulation is especially apparent on the storm's south and west sides. NHC recon should investigate both systems very soon.
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Quoting IKE:


Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved.
Thank you. If only everyone did that.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
i wish they re that : Quote
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Posted by: ThePlywoodState, 5:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
A Proposal
To make Hurricane Evacuations Obligatory by the Law



Prepared for
Dr. Benjamin Lauren
Hurricane Historian, Ph.D
University of Miami



By
Janiel Francisco Vargas Navas

Tropical Meteorology, Grad. Student
Florida International University Funny, I thought it wasn't you.


Yeah, I saw that when I went there. Didn't have to though, the syntax was a dead giveaway LOL
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1527. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:



Im in and out with Baby Back ribs and I see the same.

Its down right embarrassing.
there makin a fool of themselves
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53787
Who is JFV or what is it? I notice everyone keeps saying that a lot in this blog?
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Taz, STOP IT, geeze, you are really begining to brother a lot of folks on here, -_-.


Dude, it's over, Taz gets it now.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting btwntx08:

im sorry but to me it was period maybe not to u also there is no reason that ike put me on his list tell him im sry about lets get back on 96L



and me
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool

To set the record I never told anyone to or not to talk about 95L. Actually, anyone can talk about whatever they please as long as it is on topic and not on something irrevelant. Now, please, enough of the constant bickering and back to what this blog is for.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Ok have a good night guys.....I'm out till the ribs are in the belly
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Quoting IKE:


Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests"



thats ture IKE
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1518. IKE
Quoting Patrap:


Set it,,and forget it!!


It is forgotten.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1517. Dirtleg
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
No, K, I'm not him, lol! anyways, tahnks for your reply.


You can't say you're NOT him, and clearly have his name on YOUR blog. And noone really cares about your blog..reposting that is called spamming.
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1516. BDAwx
Quoting btwntx08:

as u can see its attached with the front still so nothing is coming out of it eventhough it looks nice like wont stay like that much longer
Quoting btwntx08:
but stop wasting blog space telling us to shut up.

tellin us that according to that it is
Quoting btwntx08:

ike they said wont either so were both right so there itsnt no take at all


I'm sorry, is English your first language?
I mean - I find it difficult to understand what you are saying and clearly you have difficulties understanding what others are saying.
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Quoting btwntx08:
1475,1469 i know what a threat is also no thanks to post 1490


LOL, okay, what threat did he make to you? What did he say he was gonna do to you?
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1514. Patrap
Quoting IKE:


Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests"


Irony ALWAYS wins..

Okay,..


Back to da ribs and M-80's
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting IKE:


Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests"


LOL
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Hurricanes101:


see there you go again, we can talk about 95L as well



ok will talk about 95L too
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
No, K, I'm not him, lol! anyways, tahnks for your reply.
Posted by: ThePlywoodState, 5:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
A Proposal
To make Hurricane Evacuations Obligatory by the Law



Prepared for
Dr. Benjamin Lauren
Hurricane Historian, Ph.D
University of Miami



By
Janiel Francisco Vargas Navas

Tropical Meteorology, Grad. Student
Florida International University Funny, I thought it wasn't you.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1510. Patrap
Quoting IKE:


Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved.


Set it,,and forget it!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
1509. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, Ike What is going on in here this evening? I come in to check on 95 & 96 and find more arguing. Can't anyone discuss any storm they wish to discuss on a weather blog?


Especially since the title of the blog is..." A Tale of Two Invests"
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Ignore works great folks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool




and for a fac am trying too end this i been mosty out of this
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1506. Patrap
Im out..flight



Houston,,

BigDuke NOLA 7

Out.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 128240
Quoting Tazmanian:



then whats talk about 96L and the wave be hid


see there you go again, we can talk about 95L as well
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7683
In the immortal words of Rodney King...



Enough bickering already. 95L is a small system that will be of interest to residents along a very small part of the Gulf coast. By all means, keep an eye on it. Whatever happens, it is a short term story, tropically speaking. 96L is probably the bigger threat for more people, so some are putting more emphasis on that.

Lets save the debate about what/when something should/shouldn't be classified as a tropical system when we don't have FOUR AREAS OF INTEREST TO TALK ABOUT!

Sorry, got a little carried away there.

Now, in the immortal words of Casey Kasem... on with the countdown!

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1503. bappit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
If this wasn't still attached to the front its probable this would be TD2.


I thought about making a post about the rules for Invest Bingo earlier. Maybe I should have.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1501. IKE
Quoting Hurricanes101:
taz and btw you two are getting carried away with this though

you are trying to dictate what others can and can't talk about and that is not cool



Both added to my ignore list. Problem solved.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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