A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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1601. Patrap
Bada Bing from 18Z beell


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128334
Quoting louisianaboy444:
You know what i dont get....Who cares if JFV comes up with 50 names hes not causing any trouble just let him blog...The only reason its a big deal is because yall make it one
Thank youuuuu!!!
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1598. EricSFL
A 60%
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1597. beell
If I were trying to spot an old, stationary boundary without a good mesonet of surface obs, I would probably focus on the wind shift. Southerlies on the south side. Easterlies on the N side. But what the heck do I know about boundaries?

Photobucket
Link
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
You know what i dont get....Who cares if JFV comes up with 50 names hes not causing any trouble just let him blog...The only reason its a big deal is because yall make it one
Agreed. If pple weren't constantly calling his name, wishing he was here, insisting that every new blogger was him, and quoting him then telling him to shut up, I wouldn't even remember who the guy was. I swear pple really like him but don't want to admit it. Personally I don't care, and I wish other bloggers would stop investing so much energy in personalities. Then we could get back really decent tropical bloggers like nash28 and so on.....
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poll time

8pm do you think the nhc will up 96L too red


A %60

B %70

C %80



the next wave sould be yellow so am going too do a poll on this has well


A %10

B %20

C %30



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Quoting itrackstorms:
Relative Vorticity



Hmm, is that area near Oklahoma the remnant circulation of Alex?
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Shear

Wind Shear is decreasing around 96L

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Quoting StormW:
Models will probably shift right somewhat again.


StormW...I know its too early for anything definitive, but I guess there is always the possibility of 96L ending up on the Central Gulf Coast instead of the TX/MX area?
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Models are not right in line with the steering pattern. Looking at the steering maps, 96L will likely go through the Yucatan Channel and head into the GOM, staying away from the BOC. I don't see it hitting anywhere south of the borderline of Texas/Mexico. Models should continue shifting to the right. Not saying it's heading to LA, just not Mexico, not likely by looking at the steering pattern. It favors a NW movement for some time.
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:


I'm worried about the possibility for rapid intensification of 95L, kind of like Edouard did in 2008. It's over warm water plus there's the oil spill to contend with right now.
I have a feeling NHC is, also, which is why they haven't taken the yellow off it. Good thing it's as tiny as it is.....
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1587. EricSFL
I believe crows will be on the list of endangered species by the time we're done with the season.
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Probs...

Interestingly, probabilities are increasing off the East coast.

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1584. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting BahaHurican:
Geez. Soon as I get here, everybody else pulls out.... :o(
iam still here just watchin and reading baha don't want to fall into a trap
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1583. Patrap
ONE TO BOOKMARK

ALL NOAA FLOATERS 95L/96L

Use them Together, use them in Peace







Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128334
Quoting Hurricanes101:


96L is a threat to come in further north than Alex did

The track will be mainly to the NW and then WNW, but part of the overall track will be based on how quickly 96L develops

thanks for the info:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting connie1976:
Hi all! Does anyone have a link to the Atlantic Ocean? I want to see what is comin off of Africa..... Thanks all!


Here ya go:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real-time/imagemain.php?&basin=europe&sat=m7&prod=irn
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i saw the nhc will say some in about this wave 8pm

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1579. Patrap
96L 18Z Models
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128334
1578. gtownTX
Quoting louisianaboy444:
You know what i dont get....Who cares if JFV comes up with 50 names hes not causing any trouble just let him blog...The only reason its a big deal is because yall make it one


My thoughts exactly. It's so easy to just hit the ignore button and move on. Remember the Funniest Home Video of the toddler who only threw himself to the ground and hollered when Mom had the video camera on him? Every time she moved out of his eyesight he stopped and went looking for her. As soon as he saw the camera he went back into full toddler meltdown.

Ignore allows us to turn the camera off.
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Quoting sarahjola:
hello everyone! i don't know why people are fighting and don't care. i all i want to know is: that system in the Caribbean looks way better today than yesterday. i see they say its going to mx. is that a pretty good bet or is there other ways it could go according to the steering currents? tia:)


96L is a threat to come in further north than Alex did

The track will be mainly to the NW and then WNW, but part of the overall track will be based on how quickly 96L develops
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700-850 Steering...

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1575. Greyelf
Lol...I apparently didn't get the memo on what the alternate blog is. (Dangit.)
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hello everyone! i don't know why people are fighting and don't care. i all i want to know is: that system in the Caribbean looks way better today than yesterday. i see they say its going to mx. is that a pretty good bet or is there other ways it could go according to the steering currents? tia:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Hi all! Does anyone have a link to the Atlantic Ocean? I want to see what is comin off of Africa..... Thanks all!
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Geez. Soon as I get here, everybody else pulls out.... :o(
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Quoting louisianaboy444:
You know what i dont get....Who cares if JFV comes up with 50 names hes not causing any trouble just let him blog...The only reason its a big deal is because yall make it one

Maybe I'm thinking of the wrong guy but I remember a guy with those same initials a few years ago. Command of the English language wasn't really great but was respectful to a fault. Last I heard his wife was having problems during childbirth and his child's life was in danger
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Relative Vorticity

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1568. lparky
A Proposal
To make Hurricane Evacuations Obligatory by the Law



Prepared for
Dr. Benjamin Lauren
Hurricane Historian, Ph.D
University of Miami



By
Janiel Francisco Vargas Navas
Tropical Meteorology, Grad. Student
Florida International University


Feasibility:

I have a Masters Degree in the field of Tropical Meteorology from Florida International University. I feel capable of taking on this proposition, because I’ve done my homework regarding this conundrum to thorough extents. I also did a one-year internship with the professional men and women from The U.S Army Corps of Engineers, whom specialize on hurricane evacuations and infrastructures. I worked on several theories with them, on the pros and cons of how my proposed law would affect hurricane evacuations in America, which also addressed specific evacuation zones, evacuation routes, and the evacuees. All of these things certainly qualify me for this undertaking. Lastly, all of the previously stated makes the overall achievability outlook of my project, quite logically plausible, because of my expectations and proficient research concerning hurricane evacuations.


Congrats on getting your masters so quickly, JFV!
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Tis the season, it seems.
Yep. We had very gusty winds up to 48 mph and BOOM out they went.
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The poison darts are once again flying. CYA!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Don't you mean one thing then? :)


Lol, a roach named JFV, and by the way, the content the last 1/2 hour is nearly as poor as TWC has been the last couple years.
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You know what i dont get....Who cares if JFV comes up with 50 names hes not causing any trouble just let him blog...The only reason its a big deal is because yall make it one
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Quoting BahaHurican:
So why'd I have to come back in here to read all this unnecessary bickering? Someone said last month some time that pple in here need to learn to multi-task, because we SHO-NUFF won't be having one system at a time at the height of this season.... we need to get used to talking about 3 or 4 systems at a time, instead of demanding that only one be the main point of discussion. And look at the TOPIC of today's discussion, which says that both invests are worth talking about.... let's stop wasting our energies rowing about which one is more important, because that's going to differ depending on where the system is in relation to you.

And let's be more tolerant of other pple's interests, because by definition pple in different locations are going to have different priorities. As a case in point, I'm still much more interested in a) the stalled out front near me and b) the Twave coming up against the eastern Antilles, simply because they are the ones most likely to impact me personally. Should I be insisting that nobody talk about 95L or 96L? After all, they're only going to hit the GoM!

We need to have lots of different voices talking about the different aspects of the wx situation that make up the overall picture. Let's work together, agree to disagree where necessary, and get the job done.


I'm worried about the possibility for rapid intensification of 95L, kind of like Edouard did in 2008. It's over warm water plus there's the oil spill to contend with right now.
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Quoting weatherwart:
What the...? I think I'll go get Chinese take-out and come back later.
Me, too. Duck!
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In keeping with the title of the blog, these are actually both interesting systems in their own ways...

95L



96L

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1408 Tazmanian "You've been reported"
1420 btwntx08 "You've been reported, that's a threat to other bloggers here"

For telling bloggers that 95L continues to be of interest?
Guess what? 95L's center is only 121miles(194kilometres) from DeepwaterHorizon. Anything that could produce gale-force squalls to hit the crude-recovery and drilling&capping area could cause operations to be shut-down for at least 4days, spilling an extra half of an ExxonValdez into the Gulf in those 4days.
So even if there were only 1% of a 1% chance of 95L strengthening into something that can hinder the recovery and capping operations, we gotta watch it. And it doesn't matter at all whether there's eg a 99% probability that 96L will never be declared a TropicalCyclone; it wouldn't matter if it were a certainty.

And that remains true until 95L is declared dead by the NHC and the Navy.
Which is totally independent of the fact that you wish to quit thinking about it.
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Quoting 954FtLCane:

I have no idea how you haven't been banned yet...JFV....
Your quote earlier today with the extremely poor choice of words you used should have easily gotten you banned....
dude you are a waste of space... there's no use in ignoring you because you always show up with a new name.
Now I am convinced that there are 2 things that would survive a nuclear war.... a cockroach and JFV


Don't you mean one thing then? :)
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Posted by: ThePlywoodState, 5:53 PM GMT on July 04, 2010
A Proposal
To make Hurricane Evacuations Obligatory by the Law



Prepared for
Dr. Benjamin Lauren
Hurricane Historian, Ph.D
University of Miami



By
Janiel Francisco Vargas Navas

Tropical Meteorology, Grad. Student
Florida International University Funny, I thought it wasn't you.


"JFVN"... I see.
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that system in the Caribbean looks way better today than yesterday. i see they say its going to mx. is that a pretty good bet or is there other ways it could go according to the steering currents? tia:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Taz, STOP IT, geeze, you are really begining to brother a lot of folks on here, -_-.

xxxxxxx
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1554. CapnJak
Quoting ThePlywoodState:


What about actually focusing a little bit more on the actual ''CONTENT'' of the document next time, why don't you? Right, Big K, you should have no problem understanding that, since you are a grown man, and then some, right, sir? with all due respect that is, of course. I devoted 3 months of my time in preparing that research proposal for y'all, and this is how it gets treated? That's OK, though, because as I had stated previously, remember, there is a ''God'' that supercedes over it and above it all, -_-.



LMAO
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Power was off for about 2 hours up here and just came back on.
Tis the season, it seems.
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Looks like its time for the serious people on here to go to the alternate site, until the nonsense blows over.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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