A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1651 - 1601

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Use ur tools, folks.

Don't quote inflammatory / derogatory remarks. Use [-], [!] and [ignore].

DO post interesting links, imagery and articles that relate to the wx events being discussed.

Don't kill off all the crows in the world by making wild unsubstantiated (to replace a shorter word lol) guesses about the wx; use ur tools!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
am sorry all i guss i did yet thing out of hand a little but am sorry so what this forget it and get back too the weather
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1648. ACEhigh
Is that Plywood psychopath really a met grad student? The paragraph or so of that "thesis" I could actually endure read as if it were written by a mentally deficient 4th grader. Either something is rotten at FIU or this guy is full of it. This site needs to start charging a nominal fee or something- I'm ignoring over 130 people and yet it is still quite an effort to muddle through the incesant nonsense.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1647. JLPR2
Quoting CybrTeddy:
IMO if the NHC's in a really generous mood they'll give 96L a 50% chance. I don't seem them jumping to Red just yet, they'll want to see persistence. They MIGHT emphasis on the might bump 95L up to 20-30% just in case it decides to break away from the trough just in time to develop. They might also give a 10% to the wave in the Eastern Caribbean with 'some slow development is possible'


I agree 100% :)

I see I came here after the drama ended :D
Huzzah! just in time LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
why is 95l not firing up convection? tia:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
95L has very little convection to it, and none of it is strong

pressures are still high in the area, overall 95L is still pretty weak
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1644. EricSFL
LOL Patrap!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:


Makes sense given the steering pattern.




Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I see 1 yellow

Red
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95l is what we in st.Bernard call a tropical poof:) that has got to be the tiniest storm i have ever seen. its almost cute:) could 95l have any chance to develop into something else. the storms in the system are some what non existent. 96l looks as though it could be nasty. does any one think it could get strong fast? quicker than Alex did? never mind what the update says, where do you all see it moving right now at this moment? where is your fix on the coc, if it has that right now? thanks in advance:) happy 4Th everyone! God bless America!
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
1640. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
IMO if the NHC's in a really generous mood they'll give 96L a 50% chance. I don't seem them jumping to Red just yet, they'll want to see persistence. They MIGHT emphasis on the might bump 95L up to 20-30% just in case it decides to break away from the trough just in time to develop. They might also give a 10% to the wave in the Eastern Caribbean with 'some slow development is possible'
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24255
1638. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L will be what at 8pm

1) Yellow
2) Orange
3) Red
4) TD
5) Bonnie


I will say 3 RED


I see 1 yellow
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1636. hydrus
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:
95L will be what at 8pm

1) Yellow
2) Orange
3) Red
4) TD
5) Bonnie


I will say 3 RED
I think orange mane...:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 954FtLCane:


There was no excuse for him to have used the derogatory word for gay in spanish today.... no excuse at all. That is the final comment I will make about him...
BTW that rainbow sat pic of 96 looks impressive


no argument there.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
To the blogger recently affected by Hurricane Alex, the next time you are p-ssed at something, please take an effort not to bring the anger onto the blog. When people get angry here, it creates drama. Thanks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1633. Patrap
Click FRONTS and MSLP

95L Wv Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
1632. Relix
Some info regarding the wave east of the Antilles?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Claudette1234:
GFS 18Z track the system 96L to Lousiana


Link Please :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1630. EricSFL
The last thing good'ole Jindal and the people of Louisiana need is a tropical cyclone heading their way.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
96L is all so smaller then 93L was so 96L can ramp up vary fast
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Lol me too haha. Eventually all of the experts are gonna get fed up and move out, all of the trolls are gonna bicker here, and all of the people who aren't experts, but are serious about this stuff are gonna be left in the wind. :/


Point well taken, Swirl
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1627. bappit
Interesting how they analyze the front for 95L. It curves down through the northern half of the storm. The convection seems to be on or to the east of the front in the tropical air. The northwest section does not seem to have the convection. (I'm going by the GOM visible loop.) So I guess when that happens the low is said to be "attached" to the front. The front is a boundary enhancing convection, and if the front were not there then the convection would not be there. Just speculating ... trying to understand what "attached" means.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 6061
I doubt 96L will be red until tomorrow at 2AM. Probably 50% at most at 8PM. But hey, I guess there's a decent chance that I'm wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yep. We had very gusty winds up to 48 mph and BOOM out they went.
Yah, lightning strike did us in last night, for about 2 hours. Looks like we're setting up for another lousy evening that way....

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam still here just watchin and reading baha don't want to fall into a trap
lol glad to see it's not just greyelf and me... lol looking at 4 potential areas of development and wondering how the blog will survive if all of them threaten to develop in the next 4 days.....

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RobertM320:


I have to agree...the last couple of times he really hasn't been bad, until people started going after him. This season's going to be too crazy for there to be this much wasted effort. If someone came in here for real information at a critical point, they'd leave with no information and that would be a sad thing.


There was no excuse for him to have used the derogatory word for gay in spanish today.... no excuse at all. That is the final comment I will make about him...
BTW that rainbow sat pic of 96 looks impressive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Claudette1234:
GFS 18Z track the system 96L to Lousiana


Makes sense given the steering pattern.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1622. Patrap
Quoting beell:


Still connected on that one-but maybe close to breaking free.


Me tinks ya right..

..very interesting watching it .
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Greyelf:
Lol...I apparently didn't get the memo on what the alternate blog is. (Dangit.)


Lol me too haha. Eventually all of the experts are gonna get fed up and move out, all of the trolls are gonna bicker here, and all of the people who aren't experts, but are serious about this stuff, like us, are gonna be left in the wind. :/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
95L will be what at 8pm

1) Yellow
2) Orange
3) Red
4) TD
5) Bonnie


I will say 3 RED
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting reedzone:
Models are not right in line with the steering pattern. Looking at the steering maps, 96L will likely go through the Yucatan Channel and head into the GOM, staying away from the BOC. I don't see it hitting anywhere south of the borderline of Texas/Mexico. Models should continue shifting to the right. Not saying it's heading to LA, just not Mexico, not likely by looking at the steering pattern. It favors a NW movement for some time.


That track could allow the storm to track over warm waters, and bring in more warm water behind it. Models currently show a TS, but it will likely be stronger, and ominously the forecasts for Alex also depicted a TS early on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
GFS 18Z track the system 96L to Lousiana
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1617. Patrap
Quoting itrackstorms:


Pat - I've grown to appreciate your posting of maps and models and such. I posted a few things thinking you stepped away. I'll let you take over.

Your efforts are much appreciated


Post away..

The mo da betta I say.

..beats the heck outta Polls and 3 initial posts.


Plus..Im enjoying a adult beverage too.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Patrap:
96L Rainbow


Outflow really impressive
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1615. beell
Quoting Patrap:
Bada Bing from 18Z beell




Still connected on that one-but maybe close to breaking free.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Bordonaro:


A) 96L will be red 60%

A) Next wave yellow 10%



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1613. MrsOsa
MrStormx you have mail
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
I have a feeling NHC is, also, which is why they haven't taken the yellow off it. Good thing it's as tiny as it is.....


That's the problem. Once the front leaves it alone the storm can intensify rapidly because it's so small. Remember Cyclone Tracy?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
96L Rainbow



Pat - I've grown to appreciate your posting of maps and models and such. I posted a few things thinking you stepped away. I'll let you take over.

Your efforts are much appreciated
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting muddertracker:
Taz...I'll go with 60 and 10. Oh, btw, thanks you for the advice on taking one of my posts down last week...probably a good idea that you did : )



ok
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Tazmanian:
poll time

8pm do you think the nhc will up 96L too red


A %60

B %70

C %80



the next wave sould be yellow so am going too do a poll on this has well


A %10

B %20

C %30





A) 96L will be red 60%

A) Next wave yellow 10%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1608. Patrap
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Taz...I'll go with 60 and 10. Oh, btw, thanks you for the advice on taking one of my posts down last week...probably a good idea that you did : )
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Agreed. If pple weren't constantly calling his name, wishing he was here, insisting that every new blogger was him, and quoting him then telling him to shut up, I wouldn't even remember who the guy was. I swear pple really like him but don't want to admit it. Personally I don't care, and I wish other bloggers would stop investing so much energy in personalities. Then we could get back really decent tropical bloggers like nash28 and so on.....


I have to agree...the last couple of times he really hasn't been bad, until people started going after him. This season's going to be too crazy for there to be this much wasted effort. If someone came in here for real information at a critical point, they'd leave with no information and that would be a sad thing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1605. Patrap
96L Rainbow

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874
Quoting Tazmanian:
poll time

8pm do you think the nhc will up 96L too red


A %60

B %70

C %80



the next wave sould be yellow so am going too do a poll on this has well


A %10

B %20

C %30





1st one
D - other - 40%

2nd
B - 20%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:
ONE TO BOOKMARK

ALL NOAA FLOATERS 95L/96L

Use them Together, use them in Peace









That looks like a hot tower developing north of 95L's circulation!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1601. Patrap
Bada Bing from 18Z beell


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128874

Viewing: 1651 - 1601

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Partly Cloudy
65 °F
Partly Cloudy