A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Orcas: Remember the old saying of Curiosity killed the cat? That is why ppl pick up snakes.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Weather456:
Everything heading west this season lol
LOL that's true mostly every season, 456.... it's where headed FROM..... and how FAR west.... lol

I'm starting to think the early part of Aug may be a lull, then really heavy CV activity until end of Sep.... This rate of activity in early July is IMO a sign of more easterly things to come. We're only not seeing more CV stuff so far because ITCZ is still pretty far south.... my $.02....
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Storm would you mind telling me what you expect to become of 96l and where you see it going? I trust your knowledge more than anyone elses on this sight. You and Jeff I take seriously. everyone else with a grain of salt
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Quoting calder:
The bloggers will be enraged if it's not red...


You are correct sir I will be very upset if Invest 95L is not code red at 8pm LOL
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Quoting Weather456:
Everything heading west this season lol


Is the A/B Atlantic high to blame so far setting up farther south and extending west to FL?
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Geeez Louise, 96L has nice outflow and a classic CDO. The computer models should pull out everyone's hair again this week.
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1843. calder
Quoting twistermania:


I think you're a blogger too.


Then by the power of greyskull i will be enraged too...
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Quoting Orcasystems:
Ok, now I am worried....
CMC

96 going to NOLA
97 Going towards NY

CMC = caca mas caca!
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2338
Quoting calder:
The bloggers will be enraged if it's not red...


I think you're a blogger too.
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Quoting calder:
The bloggers will be enraged if it's not red...


If it's not red we'll probably see some bloggers photoshop it red to satisfy themsevles
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


all snakes can swim..and do it for miles..even between islands up to 100 miles away..no one is quite sure how they navigate..maybe just by luck like our ancestors..
Guess that explains why one never hears of snakes being washed up dead for miles after a storm.... interesting that most non-human creatures [wild] living in hurricane zones seem to have defense mechanisms that allow them to ride out even the worst storms in relative safety. Meanwhile we as humans, the "higher order" beings, die in droves...

OK, enough of that topic....
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1837. calder
Quoting StormW:
Starting to band



I have to say 96L is starting to look impressive, outflow and all
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1836. swfla
Quoting Torgen:
I'm guessing no fireworks tonight!


They said on the news here they will still have them tonight even if they have to wait until 2:00 AM. I don't think I'll wait up for them.
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I failed coloring in pre-school:(


That's why you don't work at NHC
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Quoting StormW:
Starting to band



Look at that outflow on the SW side.
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Its going to be tricky...mid-level flow through 4 days

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1831. calder
The bloggers will be enraged if it's not red...
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


I failed coloring in pre-school:(


LOL!! good one
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Quoting xcool:
8pm red .
I agree with you, but it seems more likely that it will only be 40% or 50%. Also depends who does the discussion, if it's Kimberlain it will stay at 30%, if it is Avila (my favorite forecaster) it will likely be 50% or 60%.
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Love the big black snakes...the Indigo Black snakes across the North are down right friendly..their main protection is a foul smell they secrete when you pick them up...


WTF would anyone in their right mind pick one up?
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1826. bappit

Quoting StormW:


Yeah...first off, 96L isn't a wave, second, unless it becomes CAT 3 or better, and upper level ridge ain't gonna do squat for steering.

Rats, back after dinner.

The NHC: "Caribbean Sea... a tropical wave is over the NW Caribbean producing convection W of Jamaica."

Alex was blocked by a ridge and it was not a category three at the time. The Lake Charles office seems to say the ridge could be similar.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
50% can either signify orange or red. Just depends what crayon the NHC has in hand. :)


I think its just high end orange. If it really can be both, NHC needs to put a big fat dash under that greater than sign on that part that says "Red > 50%"
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1822. ackee
looks like july might be bad for Gulf state and oil clean will be disrupted again
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July 4 ..... WOW!



This year is going to be %%^%%%$##@!
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1820. xcool
8pm red .
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
The only native snakes here are non-poisonous black snakes. People have brought in some constrictors and turned them loose but other than one my son caught a few years back I haven't seen any more.


Love the big black snakes...the Indigo Black snakes across the North are down right friendly..their main protection is a foul smell they secrete when you pick them up...
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Ok, now I am worried....
CMC

96 going to NOLA
97 Going towards NY
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1816. calder
Quoting medicroc:

A. Red


10% purple
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
50% can either signify orange or red. Just depends what crayon the NHC has in hand. :)

lol
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It looks like a tropical depression is imminent with 96L by tomorrow. I would keep an eye on the area east of the Lesser Antilles as well.

Tropics are heating up...


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Everything heading west this season lol
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Quoting ackee:
what will the NHC do u 8pm

A RED
B ORANNGE 40%
C TD#2
D BONNIE


A. Red
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Red 50%
50% can either signify orange or red. Just depends what crayon the NHC has in hand. :)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Nassau, Bahamas. I'm now wondering how snakes survive hurricane landfalls. Do they swim / float?


all snakes can swim..and do it for miles..even between islands up to 100 miles away..no one is quite sure how they navigate..maybe just by luck like our ancestors..
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Quoting clwstmchasr:


Red 50%


50% is high end orange.
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Invest 96...In the words of John McEnroe, "You cannot be serious."

Looks like another long week for coastal TX. Port Aransas does not need to meet Bonnie. Oh, and Happy 4th to everybody.
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Best to keep to the Islands where the snakes will squeeze you like the best women! No venomous is a nice perk!
The only native snakes here are non-poisonous black snakes. People have brought in some constrictors and turned them loose but other than one my son caught a few years back I haven't seen any more.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8317
Quoting btwntx08:
whoever can repost 1699 plz do so this is how sry i am


btwntx08, its ok now. Lets move on.
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Take a look at the satellite loop then ask yourself which part of the circulation closes last before you have a depression . Now tell me if that side is closed already according to the visible .
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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