A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Drakoen:
There is little evidence of a surface circulation with 96L at this time. Easterlies and southerlies being reported south of the system.


This is clearly illustrated by satellite imagery. Its well defined structure is primarily due to the upper level ridge over it. I think NHC will give this 50 percent.
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Quoting Weather456:
96L has an impressive upper anticyclone over it...wow...2010 is a tropical cyclogenesis text book. The upper high is adjacent to the TUTT which is enhancing thunderstorms over the wave approaching the Antilles. There is some anticyclonic flow over that wave as well. Shear is decreasing around this wave I would not be surprise to see 97L.



So well said! Pretty map...
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04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

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That antilles wave has really improved in appearance since this a.m., when it was pretty much just a line of thundershowers.

One to watch, IMO.

When's next vorticity map out?
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1897. Patrap
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Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456, the wave near the Antilles started with this impressive circulation inside Africa 9 days ago.



Have not followed that wave but I remembered it.
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1895. calder
Quoting fsumet:


Except that the ECMWF and GFS parallel did very well with the Alex. They both have a similar track this time towards Brownsville, but are both probably a tad to the left since they initialized further to the southwest of where the center is forming.


sure, but i think his point was that there was no consensus with the models - that as a whole they were struggling.
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1894. Patrap
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96L isn't looking good for the home team folks.
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456, the wave near the Antilles started with this impressive circulation inside Africa 9 days ago.

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1891. Patrap
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1890. Patrap
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Looks like we will have a TD coming very shortly..
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Quoting Weather456:
96L has an impressive upper anticyclone over it...wow...2010 is a tropical cyclogenesis text book. The upper high is adjacent to the TUTT which is enhancing thunderstorms over the wave approaching the Antilles. There is some anticyclonic flow over that wave as well. Shear is decreasing around this wave I would not be surprise to see 97L.


Dry Hair may be a problem for pre-97L
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1887. fsumet
Quoting calder:


and perhaps a valid and interesting observation. well done sir!


Except that the ECMWF and GFS parallel did very well with the Alex. They both have a similar track this time towards Brownsville, but are both probably a tad to the left since they initialized further to the southwest of where the center is forming.
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1886. Drakoen
There is little evidence of a surface circulation with 96L at this time. Easterlies and southerlies being reported south of the system.
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Quoting twistermania:
Brownsville and surrounding areas do not need another 15 inches.

u can say that again
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1884. Patrap
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1883. Relix
That wave east of the Antilles is worrying me, at least it's only a day away from PR so it won't form into anything. Will be nasty though
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96L has an impressive upper anticyclone over it...wow...2010 is a tropical cyclogenesis text book. The upper high is adjacent to the TUTT which is enhancing thunderstorms over the wave approaching the Antilles. There is some anticyclonic flow over that wave as well. Shear is decreasing around this wave I would not be surprise to see 97L.

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Guess that explains why one never hears of snakes being washed up dead for miles after a storm.... interesting that most non-human creatures [wild] living in hurricane zones seem to have defense mechanisms that allow them to ride out even the worst storms in relative safety. Meanwhile we as humans, the "higher order" beings, die in droves...

OK, enough of that topic....


Going through Wilma, had an osprey huddled on a balcony outside the room where I was riding the storm. Even when I went outside to have a look and take photos, the bird didn't move. It must of felt it was better to take its chances with me than to face certain death or serious injury in that wind. I was very careful not to make it feel uneasy and harm itself. It stayed there for hours, and left when the winds subsided. Wildlife is at risk but finds a way to survive.

By observing all the activity in last few weeks, this is starting to look like a very active season as forecast by many.
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Quoting Weather456:


Yea but west as in figure 8 on my blog.
which reminds me.... Need 2 go check ur blog tonight.... haven't looked at ur July outlook yet, which I was anticipating 4 days.... Got distracted w/ other stuff today...
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1879. Patrap
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Kind of like a twenty in a biloxi casino...


Dats a good analogy fo sho.

...LOL
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1878. scCane
So what is the wave now in the islands going to do? It's not exactly nice looking now either....
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Tornado on the ground per the NWS in Colorado


Verne Carson is streaming it live

http://stormchaserco.blogspot.com/
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1876. Patrap
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Quoting Patrap:
Trust is like pudding.

It goes fast usually


Kind of like a twenty in a biloxi casino...
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Interesting question: The moisture that is not attached to what is left of 95L, could that be swept into the banding features of 96L?
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1873. calder
Quoting InTheCone:
I would guess that the models may have a harder time with these systems as they are not typical for our basin, at least that is what I gather from what Storm just said. Alex and 96l seem more like WPAC systems so perhaps the models are a bit less accurate until they get well established and especially until the G-IV's get out there. Just a thought!


and perhaps a valid and interesting observation. well done sir!
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Quoting YourCommonSense:


JFV has a hurricane deflector shield installed at home, which covers all of south Florida. So we are safe.



lol
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Guess that explains why one never hears of snakes being washed up dead for miles after a storm.... interesting that most non-human creatures [wild] living in hurricane zones seem to have defense mechanisms that allow them to ride out even the worst storms in relative safety. Meanwhile we as humans, the "higher order" beings, die in droves...

OK, enough of that topic....


Hurricanes, torandoes etc all destory our simple attempts at being higher "beings..I'm with the the other "creatures" myself...better odds they out last us.

That said, the speed of the spin up on 996L is impressive and the Antilles system looks to follow the same timeline unless there is shear to deal with coming from SA.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ah you better like that high .....that high will protect you......UNTIL IT WEAKENS!
Quoting YourCommonSense:


JFV has a hurricane deflector shield installed at home, which covers all of south Florida. So we are safe.
LOL!!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Ah you better like that high .....that high will protect you......UNTIL IT WEAKENS!


Plan B is in the works.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Good thing is that the Caribbean systems most likely won't come your way. But those systems that would normally recurve such as... hate to bring it up.. Andrew. I pray nothing that bad will ever come your way, hopefully my prayers are mightier than JFV's XD
LOL.
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Tornado on the ground per the NWS in Colorado
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh. Not liking that one here in south Florida.


Ah you better like that high .....that high will protect you......UNTIL IT WEAKENS!
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I would guess that the models may have a harder time with these systems as they are not typical for our basin, at least that is what I gather from what Storm just said. Alex and 96l seem more like WPAC systems so perhaps the models are a bit less accurate until they get well established and especially until the G-IV's get out there. Just a thought!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Uh-oh. Not liking that one here in south Florida.


Good thing is that the Caribbean systems most likely won't come your way. But those systems that would normally recurve such as... hate to bring it up.. Andrew. I pray nothing that bad will ever come your way, hopefully my prayers are mightier than JFV's XD
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1862. calder
Quoting twistermania:
Hello, Rob. I can't quote you.

I'm enraged it isn't red as of 5 PM!


Hi, i'm dave
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Quoting BahaHurican:
LOL that's true mostly every season, 456.... it's where headed FROM..... and how FAR west.... lol

I'm starting to think the early part of Aug may be a lull, then really heavy CV activity until end of Sep.... This rate of activity in early July is IMO a sign of more easterly things to come. We're only not seeing more CV stuff so far because ITCZ is still pretty far south.... my $.02....


Yea but west as in figure 8 on my blog.
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Brownsville and surrounding areas do not need another 15 inches.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


WTF would anyone in their right mind pick one up?


Not right mind here..or left mind...just and Indian..and when they crawl into the wrong place best to move them out in a friendly way and wish them well....besides they don't bit much...
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Hello, Rob. I can't quote you.

I'm enraged it isn't red as of 5 PM!
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Quoting Weather456:


The A/B is further west and extends a great deal into the SE USA.
Uh-oh. Not liking that one here in south Florida.
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1856. Patrap
Trust is like pudding.

It goes fast usually
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There is a large, Very Large difference in the MOdels with 96L...sorta like Alex. From a very large trough opening to only a small weakness that pulls 96L north before the High moves back in and pushes 96L back to the West....
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Quoting calder:


Then by the power of greyskull i will be enraged too...

lol
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Is the A/B Atlantic high to blame so far setting up farther south and extending west to FL?


The A/B is further west and extends a great deal into the SE USA.
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Orcas: Remember the old saying of Curiosity killed the cat? That is why ppl pick up snakes.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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