A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
OMG


00
ABNT20 KNHC 042335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting futuremet:


This is clearly illustrated by satellite imagery. Its well defined structure is primarily due to the upper level ridge over it. I think NHC will give this 50 percent.


Right on the money!
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I have never seen 4 circles. Wow. LOL!
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Nice structure

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50% 96L
20% 95L
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
1945. Drakoen
4 circles lol
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re. 1932 .... too right, Taz... lol
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Quoting leo305:



models have a trough taking it out to see, so weird since that same trough supposebly wont touch 96L...

...


96L is too far West for the front to do more than lift it into the Gulf of Mex..then 96L may head to TX...?
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holy crap 4 circles!! lol
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1941. calder
50%
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4 CIRCLES! Happy 4th of July!
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1939. Drakoen
50% 96L
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1938. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
1937. JRRP
now the wave looks more organized

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18z hwrf is corpus christi bound lol
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i think will be needing new F 5 keys when the season is overe
ditto
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Quoting BahaHurican:
yep, which is 1 reason
Relix and I r watching it so closely. These systems are the ones that make me nervous - cut across PR, then swing west and wammybammy the T&C and the Bahamas...


you..you hope those Island mountains hit them hard and the shears appear to cut them apart before they can take aim.
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EPAC has gone dead silent.
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i think will be needing new F 5 keys when the season is overe
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1931. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:
Good evening...

I see 96L is organizing rather quickly today. Center trying to consolidate around 17N 82W based on my observations.


I see it a little west of those coordinates
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't know how that got a T1.0.
Because it's a legitimate little system.
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


Antilles low is a threat perhaps for the Bahamas and East coast...hard to see it follow 96L which will deflect it North as it forms with it's counter clockwise flow it would seem.
yep, which is 1 reason
Relix and I r watching it so closely. These systems are the ones that make me nervous - cut across PR, then swing west and wammybammy the T&C and the Bahamas...
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pre-97 will not go out to sea the high will block it
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1927. WxLogic
Good evening...

I see 96L is organizing rather quickly today. Center trying to consolidate around 17N 82W based on my observations.
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1926. Drakoen
Texas bound says the HWRF 18z:

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1925. help4u
GFDL does nothing with 96l,most of the moisture heads straight north.
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1924. Drakoen
96L has a mid level circulation
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1923. leo305
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Antilles low is a threat perhaps for the Bahamas and East coast...hard to see it follow 96L which will deflect it North as it forms with it's counter clockwise flow it would seem.



models have a trough taking it out to see, so weird since that same trough supposebly wont touch 96L...

...
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Doubt it at 8 p.m.... maybe 2morrow morning. Still looking 4 the closed circulation.
Yep. I'm thinking TD after Recon investigates tomorrow at 1:30PM EDT.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That antilles wave has really improved in appearance since this a.m., when it was pretty much just a line of thundershowers.

One to watch, IMO.

When's next vorticity map out?


Antilles low is a threat perhaps for the Bahamas and East coast...hard to see it follow 96L which will deflect it North as it forms with it's counter clockwise flow it would seem.
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Technically it could have been upgraded to a TD today
No it technically couldn't. Look at the NHC definition for a tropical cyclone:

A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Doubt it at 8 p.m.... maybe 2morrow morning. Still looking 4 the closed circulation.


Yep
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Quoting Patrap:
Hello Patrap,what is the model that you use to see this intense colors? can you provide a link to see this loops,thanks!!!!
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1917. Drakoen
If you speed up the loop really fast things will start spinning... lol
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Quoting tropicaltank:
Perhaps a TD?
Doubt it at 8 p.m.... maybe 2morrow morning. Still looking 4 the closed circulation.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
about 10 min to next TWO / TWD?
Likely yes.
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1914. help4u
HWRF now takes 96l into south central texas.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
That antilles wave has really improved in appearance since this a.m., when it was pretty much just a line of thundershowers.

One to watch, IMO.

When's next vorticity map out?

for some reason cimss hasnt updated since the 1500z update strange
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Since convection is waning, it is clear that 96L has not become self-sufficient yet. Developing tropical cyclones with a well-defined center usually do not rely on diurnal phases.
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yup cant wait
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't know how that got a T1.0.


Technically it could have been upgraded to a TD today
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i thought there was a new blog
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Quoting BahaHurican:
about 10 min to next TWO / TWD?
Perhaps a TD?
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RGB imagery show spinning associated with 96L, very nice too
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Quoting Patrap:


Dvorak view is impressive...
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about 10 min to next TWO / TWD?
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Interesting question: The moisture that is not attached to what is left of 95L, could that be swept into the banding features of 96L?


Yeah. That's what happened to Darby when Alex ate it.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Quoting Weather456:
04/1845 UTC 27.5N 89.8W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

I don't know how that got a T1.0.
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Pretty Large trough here....???
Member Since: September 2, 2007 Posts: 179 Comments: 20448
Quoting Drakoen:
There is little evidence of a surface circulation with 96L at this time. Easterlies and southerlies being reported south of the system.


This is clearly illustrated by satellite imagery. Its well defined structure is primarily due to the upper level ridge over it. I think NHC will give this 50 percent.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.