A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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so is it %20 now that we see 97L?
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Quoting LADobeLady:
Who in the heck opened up the tropical wave door? I'm going on vacation next week, this is not acceptable!


Me too. To the western tip of Galveston island. Grrrr
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1999. Patrap
I watch the systems,,and area's,

Not the circles.

They just circles.
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Quoting helove2trac:
show me a four circles i only seen 2 orange and yellow


LOL!!!

Here is 4 circles i posted on my site....on 7-1-10

See where they are at now.....



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Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.
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Quoting Torgen:


Black snakes are awesome! They eat pests, and are beautiful. I haven't seen the one that lives in the vines outside my home office this year, wondering if the hawk in my avatar got him.


hehehe..well it wasn't me even if my Shawnee family name a birth was Redhawk...need them to keep my garden free of unwanteds...
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1995. Patrap
ADDS GOM NOAA Viz Loop
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1994. SLU


Looks like it's gonna be "a hell of a year".
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


what? I only see 2 circles. Yellow and orange.


The actual physical circles aren't updated on the map yet. But if you read the outlook you'll see four areas of interest. The two new ones are at 10% and 20%.
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They started the Antilles wave at 20%
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


lol, well still, I haven't seen 4 at once in JULY. o_o
There ya' go. Lol.
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1990. pottery
Good Evening all.
A rainy one here today, humidity between high 80's and 100% with constant rain (not heavy).
Wind generally calm, and pressure now 1011.
Would not be surprised to see 97L east of the Islands tomorrow morning, tracking NW south of the high .

96L looking very impressive...

Plenty of stuff setting up in the Caribbean, Antilles, and around 95L.
We got busy, fast.

Happy July 4th!
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Graphics are lagging text.
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Quoting futuremet:


Right on the money!


50% and rising..well said!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



JFV did it


It had to be him or Stormtop
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
1986. bappit
Quoting StormW:


Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development.

So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop. This one seems to have it ready made--as by a wave moving through the area.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I wasn't. LOL.


lol, well still, I haven't seen 4 at once in JULY. o_o
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1984. Patrap
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97L likely soon with the Antilles wave. Maybe 98L for the Bahamas disturbance.
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show me a four circles i only seen 2 orange and yellow
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


what? I only see 2 circles. Yellow and orange.
It will take a couple minutes for them to come out, wait until 8:30ish.
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Quoting Weather456:
Nice structure



Perhaps the surface level close low isn't so very far away..10 minutes I'd guess..
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1978. Greyelf
WABC reporting Terminal 1 at JFK evacuated due to "a threat of some kind". Link
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1977. Patrap
96L working the swirl at the Mid Levels.
the surface will follow suit next 12most likely.

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 042335
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART


Looks like they upped up 96L to 50%, just as I suspected. They also upped 95L to 20%.
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hmmm i dont think we where going too see 4
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
WOW yellow, yellow, yellow, orange


what? I only see 2 circles. Yellow and orange.
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Oh man... Here comes 95L, 96L, 97L, 98L. LOL, I told ya' this mornin'.
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1972. Patrap
Wv

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The circles reflect the image below from this morning's update

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Who in the heck opened up the tropical wave door? I'm going on vacation next week, this is not acceptable!
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 549
looks like will see 97L 98L
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


I guess you weren't here for years such as 2005 and 2008, and well, pretty much any year other than 09 and 06. lol
I wasn't. LOL.
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I see they up'd 96L to 50% chance of developing...
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Quoting Drakoen:
NHC notes there is not closed surface circulation with 96L at this time


Yeah I saw that, it's probably the only reason why it's not at code red/TD status yet.
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1964. JRRP
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what is the time frame for 96l to get into the gulf of mexico
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I have never seen 4 circles. Wow. LOL!


I guess you weren't here for years such as 2005 and 2008, and well, pretty much any year other than 09 and 06. lol
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1961. Drakoen
Quoting Weather456:
Nice structure



Looks to be around 16.9N 82W based on that
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1960. Torgen
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Not right mind here..or left mind...just and Indian..and when they crawl into the wrong place best to move them out in a friendly way and wish them well....besides they don't bit much...


Black snakes are awesome! They eat pests, and are beautiful. I haven't seen the one that lives in the vines outside my home office this year, wondering if the hawk in my avatar got him.
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Good call 456 and others!
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Quoting AllStar17:
EPAC has gone dead silent.


That is interesting to note as when the EPAC goes quiet we will find elevated activity for the rest of the season in the Atlantic as climatology warms...
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hey doc come back
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1956. JRRP
Quoting AllStar17:
4 CIRCLES!

looks like August
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Quoting Weather456:
Nice structure



This could very well become a tropical depression tomorrow.
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1953. Drakoen
NHC notes there is not closed surface circulation with 96L at this time
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WOW yellow, yellow, yellow, orange
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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