A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2051. xcool
97 come soon
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Quoting TexasHurricane:
nevermind...I see the 4 circles...WOW!

They had to break open another box of Crayola's & get another yellow crayon out!!
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Thanks. LOL. I hope they don't so the same thing on Christmas.


LOL! 25 circles, of all different colors, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, magenta, scarlet, cinnabar XD
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Ahhhh! Too many circles!

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2047. Patrap
96L 18Z Models
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2046. xcool
wowwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww get busy
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Quoting leo305:
we have 97L with 20%
and 95L with 20%
96L with 50%
and an AOI with 10%

yes we have 97L


there is no 97L yet
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nevermind...I see the 4 circles...WOW!
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Quoting hydrus:
Speaking of a quiet East Pacific. The West Pacific is also tranquil for this time of year.


..interesting...
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96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting
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Here we go. WOW!! Looks like August! i guess there are more fireworks to be viewed than the real ones that everybody is seeing tonight.
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2039. Patrap
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..

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Quoting Tazmanian:
Link


Wow... The atlantic has got polka dots
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2037. Drakoen
Quoting tropicfreak:


They may mention 4 areas of concern on the TWO, but there aren't 4 circles on the map.


Look at your map again
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Quoting leo305:
we have 97L with 20%
and 95L with 20%
96L with 50%
and an AOI with 10%

yes we have 97L
Um...No we don't have 97L.
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Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.


George Washington surrendered to my family on July 4th 1753 -Battle called "Fort Necessity" and then again on July 4th 1754 - Battle called "Braddocks defeat"...and still my Shawnee ancestors fought IN the Revolutionary army...never did trust the Brits..LOL
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4 circles lol

NHC

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NNNN
Member Since: July 21, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 552
2033. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.

lol
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i want some cake
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Soggy 4th here in WPB, FL...

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2030. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/96/L
MARK
16.9N/81.1


INV/95/L
MARK
27.9N/90.4W


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
15.6N/59.9W


AOI/XX/XL
MARK
XXN/XXW
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Link
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circles updated 4
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95L up to 20% in the TWO.
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2026. leo305
we have 97L with 20%
and 95L with 20%
96L with 50%
and an AOI with 10%

yes we have 97L
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2025. fsumet
Quoting TexasGulf:
I will start preparing for a Cat-2 hurricane in N.E. Houston for next weekend. I believe 96L is organizing quickly with only favorable conditions in it's path for development.

We got a lot of good rain out of Alex. Nice, slow steady soaking rains that we really needed. 96L is projected to move over the Western Gulf, with relatively low wind shear, high SST's and a trough that will pull it Northward. This time, I think it's Houston and S.E. Texas's turn in the barrel.


What trough? High pressure may be pushing it to the west southwest as it's making landfall.
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Okay the four circles are up now.
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I only have 4 AOI setup to monitor on my site....I BE HECK IF I MAKE ROOM FOR 5!!
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thanks tampa your the greatest
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Quoting TampaSpin:
4 Circles will be popping up from NHC very shortly from there 8pm update.....


Are we guessing that there will be 4 circles are have we heard something stating that? just curious...
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Quoting TampaSpin:
4 Circles will be popping up from NHC very shortly from there 8pm update.....


Unbelivible.
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2019. Patrap
Quoting SiestaCpl:


hmmm maybe trying to take advantage of the window of opportunity you mentioned 'eh?


95L was nuther 18-20 to da coast,then inland thru the thickest warmest marsh.


Stay Tuned.

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Quoting tropicfreak:


They may mention 4 areas of concern on the TWO, but there aren't 4 circles on the map.
Wait a while and you'll get the circles.
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I will start preparing for a Cat-2 hurricane in N.E. Houston for next weekend. I believe 96L is organizing quickly with only favorable conditions in it's path for development.

We got a lot of good rain out of Alex. Nice, slow steady soaking rains that we really needed. 96L is projected to move over the Western Gulf, with relatively low wind shear, high SST's and a trough that will pull it Northward. This time, I think it's Houston and S.E. Texas's turn in the barrel.
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They may mention 4 areas of concern on the TWO, but there aren't 4 circles on the map.
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Quoting Torgen:


Black snakes are awesome! They eat pests, and are beautiful. I haven't seen the one that lives in the vines outside my home office this year, wondering if the hawk in my avatar got him.


Is that a Red Shoulder Hawk? He looks almost identical to one that lives in the woods next to our house. I have a whole family of Black Racers that lives under my driveway, very cool snakes.
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BBL.... gone 2 look for some ice cream for a cake mom is taking out of the oven... mmmmm....
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Quoting weather42009:
Have a feeling W456 doomed us all with his July outlook.


Not a chance - it's Masters on vacation that hath doomed us....
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4 Circles will be popping up from NHC very shortly from there 8pm update.....
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Well - here we go, eh? 4 areas, dang.

I'm off to Iwo Jima to see the DC fireworks tonight! Can't wait - my first 4th here in VA. I'll check up on these systems before I go to bed.
Later.
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2010. ackee
WoW blog should come alive we have soon to be BONNIE or TD#2 may be two invest 97L and 98L
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2009. Patrap
Freedom,Liberty,Justice,Truth and Brotherhood are all good things to celebrate Worldwide today.


Thank you for the well wishes to America.



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2008. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:


Looks to be around 16.9N 82W based on that


Jeje... close.
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2007. hydrus
Quoting SiestaCpl:


That is interesting to note as when the EPAC goes quiet we will find elevated activity for the rest of the season in the Atlantic as climatology warms...
Speaking of a quiet East Pacific. The West Pacific is also tranquil for this time of year.
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2006. srada
I hope everyone is having a great fourth of july!! about to head off to fireworks but wanted to post that I believe these two areas will affect the conus..96L looks like another Alex heading into Mexico..

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
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Quoting Patrap:


hmmm maybe trying to take advantage of the window of opportunity you mentioned 'eh?
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Have a feeling W456 doomed us all with his July outlook.
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2003. Drakoen
Quoting Patrap:
I watch the systems,,and area's,

Not the circles.

They just circles.


Yup
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Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.
Thanks. LOL. I hope they don't so the same thing on Christmas.
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so is it %20 now that we see 97L?
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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