A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting hydrus:
Arent we already in an upward phase?


We are.
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Quoting Dakster:


IIRC, 6,000 posts. Unless Dr. M and his tech staff increased the limit or upgraded the blog software.
Thanks, wasn't aware of that. Guess I don't lurk enough to see them all.
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Quoting Weather456:
The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.
What do you think about the LA/MS region?
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96L and the Caribbean wave (97L soon to be) have the best shot of becoming Bonnie and Colin.
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2097. Dakster
Quoting stormpetrol:
Wait a minute I leave for a few hours and now 4 AOI, who ticked off Mother Nature? Caribbean AOI looking better organized by the hour.


BP did... 'nuff said.
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Quoting RitaEvac:


Nooooo! dude Im going on a trip, what are you seeing??


That Trough is might big and pretty strong...?

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Quoting TampaSpin:


MJO is due to arive in 7-10 days...HOLLY CRAP
MJO in our basin and reluctant to leave because the Atlantic is where all the activity is.

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The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.
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Wait a minute I leave for a few hours and now 4 AOI, who ticked off Mother Nature? Caribbean AOI looking better organized by the hour.
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2092. hydrus
Quoting TampaSpin:


MJO is due to arive in 7-10 days...HOLLY CRAP
Arent we already in an upward phase?
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
I see someone in the NHC went a little overboard with one of these:



Don't mind their "crayon" circles. Just hate when they use that "cone" drawing tool though.
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Quoting Weather456:
What is so amusing is that 2, 3 and 4 have the potential to become named systems. They really do. As for 95L, well I don't think so.
Agreed.
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95L reminds me of Alica in 83, small system and south of LA
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2087. hydrus
Quoting muddertracker:

eeek...roflmao!! Hooper drives the boat!
Chief...Hooper drives the boat chief.lol
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We'll likely have 97L soon with the area entering the Caribbean.
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2085. Dakster
Quoting LightningCharmer:
Post Limit? Have seen over 4000 posts several times. What would that limit be?


IIRC, 6,000 posts. Unless Dr. M and his tech staff increased the limit or upgraded the blog software.
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2084. pottery
Quoting Weather456:
What is so amusing is that 2, 3 and 4 have the potential to become named systems. They really do. As for 95L, well I don't think so.

Agree.
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2083. ackee
The wave near Island should be invest 97L before night is over I think invest 96L will be a TD#2 BY 5AM
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Quoting Patrap:



95L looks like 95L is starting too fall a part some
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MJO is due to arive in 7-10 days...HOLLY CRAP
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2080. WxLogic
My goodness... I can't imagine Aug. and Sep. when it comes. The atmosphere is definitely trying its best to balance all the heat content in the tropics.

This blog will definitely be too busy to follow soon.
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Quoting Patrap:
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..


eeek...roflmao!! Hooper drives the boat!
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What is so amusing is that 2, 3 and 4 have the potential to become named systems. They really do. As for 95L, well I don't think so.
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Quoting Dakster:


Do you hear that often Patrap??

Isn't there a post limit per blog... I remember last year we exceeded it.
Post Limit? Have seen over 4000 posts several times. What would that limit be?
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2075. xcool
96L FROM LA/TX border.
KEEP EYE OUT
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Quoting RitaEvac:


lmao cuz Im going on a trip and dont want to be worrying about the gulf
LOL!! Well I'll leave that one up to W456.
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Quoting Weather456:


You remembered when I said not Texas for Alex, well its not the same case this time around.


What? Where are you thinking it will go?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
NHC's going to run out of yellow crayon.


NHC is gonna have an aneurysm.
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Quoting RitaEvac:
96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting

actually it maybe a texas problem according to some of us here
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Quoting Kristina40:


Is that a Red Shoulder Hawk? He looks almost identical to one that lives in the woods next to our house. I have a whole family of Black Racers that lives under my driveway, very cool snakes.


Red Tail Hawk here....the big bad boys (or girls more often if they are big) of the Hawks in North America...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Explain your reasoning please.


lmao cuz Im going on a trip and dont want to be worrying about the gulf
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I see someone in the NHC went a little overboard with one of these:

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2066. Drakoen
Quoting WxLogic:


Jeje... close.


And perhaps a bit further west :)
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2065. beell
Quoting Weather456:
Its July 4 right? So 4 circles to celebrate.

BTW, happy independence to you guys in the US of A.


Thanks, W456!
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Quoting Weather456:


You remembered when I said not Texas for Alex, well its not the same case this time around.


Nooooo! dude Im going on a trip, what are you seeing??
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noaa has 4 circles now
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2062. Dakster
Quoting Patrap:
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..



Do you hear that often Patrap??

Isn't there a post limit per blog... I remember last year we exceeded it.
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READY! SET!! GO!!!!
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NHC's going to run out of yellow crayon.
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


LOL! 25 circles, of all different colors, yellow, orange, red, purple, blue, magenta, scarlet, cinnabar XD
LOL!!
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Quoting Patrap:


95L was nuther 18-20 to da coast,then inland thru the thickest warmest marsh.


Stay Tuned.



Land Rover is ready here...LOL..bad habit I picked up in Africa..can drive through water up to the windows..if it isn't moving too fast!!!
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Most of 96L's moisture is probably gonna get sucked into the trough in Florida anyway! LOL

We picked up over 3.50 inches today, and 1.77 yesterday, and over 10 in the last week! I love this
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like in 05 everything is close to home
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Quoting RitaEvac:
96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting


You remembered when I said not Texas for Alex, well its not the same case this time around.
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Quoting Patrap:
..We're gonna need a Bigger Blog..



lol, at least its on subject again.
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2053. leo305
Quoting Hurricanes101:


there is no 97L yet


oh, I thought there would be one, since they tend to declare waves and systems invest when they hit 20%
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Quoting RitaEvac:
96L going to mexico people quit wishcasting
Explain your reasoning please.
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2051. xcool
97 come soon
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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