A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting tropicfreak:


5?? Whats the 5th one.

Interested in knowing also
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Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:

That's exciting. Like fire works on the 4th of July.

Happy Birthday America.
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2149. Dakster
Quoting DestinJeff:
we are up to 5 TWO graphs now



???? I only see 4... Unless I am missing something.
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You know if you fail to cover your windows for a storm and they blow out or debris flys into them, the insurance companies wont pay for everything if they see that you failed to take proper precautions to shutter the windows up. I see people doing that all the time here.
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We may become so active this year, we gonna have to divide up into teams, lol. You guys take that two and we take that 3, lol
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Quoting Patrap:
Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else.

Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge.

Without a doubt.

Rib anyone,..mmmmm ?





Good point. We did all our grilling yesterday for husbands Bday and to accommodate the rain schedule. All the ribs are already gone but I do still have T Bones left over and corn on the cob. It's been raining all afternoon even thought the sun has been out most of the time...Weird.
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2145. Patrap
96L JSL Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
95L is dying tonight, face it, it is done
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Quoting Patrap:
Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else.

Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge.

Without a doubt.



I concur.
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ackk..pff.. Dusty.
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2141. GetReal
IMO I would not right off 95L just yet... This is a very small system, that is structurally well put together. Being a very small system, it would not take much for 95L to quickly wrap any convection around the COC, and quickly becoming a TD, or even minimal TS....

I know the chances of this occurring are slim, but it is definitely possible with this type system. All 95L needs is one good dmax!
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
Quoting DestinJeff:
we are up to 5 TWO graphs now


5?? Whats the 5th one.
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Quoting StormW:


Exactly!


You thinking this too? Ughhh, I am in SE TX....
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2138. Patrap
Anyone giving out a landfall Geographic prediction on 96L is more likely ego driven than anything else.

Its not a wise route to say where this Invest 96L will wind up as of this evening,,as that depends alot on intensity as much as the ridge.

Without a doubt.

18Z 96L Run

Rib anyone,..mmmmm ?



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting RitaEvac:
Ok, gonna have to leave out the map where the shutters go on the house for my father in case this freaking 96L is coming my way. Last time I was in Vegas they Gustav coming to SE TX turned out to be false alarm, go back 2 years later and like deja vu all over again
Good evening Rita and everybody. Do like I do Rita and let the Ins. Co. figure out where the new windows go....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
We also have to look at analogies of twin tropical cyclones in such a short temporal scale. One always seem to head north or south of its predecessor.
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So we expect a more northerly course.Any thoughts on intensity?
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Quoting Patrap:
..ooofh



Looking like it could be another "BIG" storm....
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Quoting Weather456:
From my July outlook, we should spend 1 week with the absence of the MJO. That leaves us pretty much with the majority of July in upward motion.


...up MJO..means bad Mojo for us...unless you like wading....
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is 96l really going to go the same exact route as alex? thats a little hard to believe. could the models be picking up on alex still or just stuck on that route, or is there some steering reason they are figuring same route. its the same exact route as alex. its just strange to me.:)
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Quoting leo305:


I don't think its ever wise to say a storm is going somewhere like "SE TEXAS" when it's yet to even have a center, and its so early in the game..


it is wise enough. 96L has no close center yet its been heading WNW-NW. I've projected paths without close centers all the time, most recently, Alex. It's not as accurate but it can be done.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L and the Caribbean wave (97L soon to be) have the best shot of becoming Bonnie and Colin.


I think the NHC will upgrade the antillies wave up to orange. Hope they are prepared and have the orange,yellow, and even red on hand. Plenty.
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2126. Patrap
..ooofh

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
i was thinking the same thing i was not even forcasting 4
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Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
2123. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting DestinJeff:
can someone post the two graphic?
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2122. Greyelf
WABC reporting the bomb scare at JFK was a false alarm. "The evacuation happened after an anonymous phone caller said there was a bomb at the airport, and at the same time someone else reported an unattended bag."
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WHAT THE HELL THREE YELLOW AND ONE ORANGE WE ALL MUSH HAVE SLEEPING ON 95L AND 96l WOW

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042344
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
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2120. bappit
Quoting TexasGulf:
We got a lot of good rain out of Alex. Nice, slow steady soaking rains that we really needed.

Say what? Lucky you weren't in Brazoria or Fort Bend. Hobby and IAH set daily rainfall records, too.
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2119. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
WELL
the key is to go slow
keep the info moving
maintain blog to be
as informative as possible
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Ok, gonna have to leave out the map where the shutters go on the house for my father in case this freaking 96L is coming my way. Last time I was in Vegas they Gustav coming to SE TX turned out to be false alarm, go back 2 years later and like deja vu all over again
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HUSTON WE GOT A PROBLEM




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From my July outlook, we should spend 1 week with the absence of the MJO. That leaves us pretty much with the majority of July in upward motion.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
96L and the Caribbean wave (97L soon to be) have the best shot of becoming Bonnie and Colin.
I'm not discounting the trough split over the Bahamas by any means. I think that she has a good chance of becoming Danielle.
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Quoting Weather456:
The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.


excellent clarification as per usual...
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2112. Patrap
Quoting leo305:


I don't think its ever wise to say a storm is going somewhere like "SE TEXAS" when it's yet to even have a center, and its so early in the game..


U betcha sweet bippy.





Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
MJO in our basin and reluctant to leave because the Atlantic is where all the activity is.




oh my
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When I hit the refresh screen on the NHC outlook page, I was like, ooooooooooooooh myyyyyyyyyy gossssssssssssssh!!!!!

Two MORE areas of interest. Now we have four. This is unbelievable for early July. I'll be posting synoptic histories of each area of interest later tonight so you can see how this happened.
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2109. will45
Quoting Weather456:
The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.
blockquote>

If it stalls like Alex that may change things.
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Colin? Really? They soooo should have gone with Clyde.
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2107. nash28
456 is right on. Not the strength of the ridge but the orientation of the ridge.
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This must be what an MJO pulse looks like...four invests.
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2105. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Arent we already in an upward phase?

I been in an upward phase all day long. Does that count?
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2104. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
2103. leo305
Quoting Weather456:
The steering set up is different from Alex. The storm should be heading NW over the next 3-4 days, placing it north of Alex forecast points. It should curve back more to the west at the end of the forecast cycle due to ridging to the north but how far north it would of gotten by then? We have to look not at the strength of the ridge this time around but its location which is parked and along the E USA, much further east than the ridge that steered Alex back west which was over the Central CONUS. Its gonna be a close call for SE Texas.


I don't think its ever wise to say a storm is going somewhere like "SE TEXAS" when it's yet to even have a center, and its so early in the game..
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2102. bappit
Quoting StormW:


Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development.


So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop. This one seems to have it ready made--as by a wave moving through the area.
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Quoting hydrus:
Arent we already in an upward phase?


We are.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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