A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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nevere mine
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Quoting Levi32:
CIMSS maps are not updating but here is PSU 925mb vorticity, rather strong in the vicinity of 96L but northwest of most of the convection.

That's very interesting.
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2248. JRRP
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Quoting Tazmanian:



thanks


No time for worries we have "stuff" all over the sat maps...need us all watching..well mother nature doesn't need us at all..but it is fun to watch the systems at work 'eh?

Your good here....enjoy! Hope others listen as well...
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Are the High's setting over the East Coast plan on moving out any time soon? Looks to me like they pull NE for a day or two and then move back to about where it is today.
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operational GFS is garbage. Look at para GFS.
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Hi everyone. Hope y'all enjoyed the holiday.
Can hear the crackers starting to go off at the beach. Every year they post "no fireworks" and every year it's a big show down there.

I see not the only thing cooking today was on the barbecue.



Where is the invest east of the Windwards supposed to track?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


I saw your mail, I dont have you on ignore lol

its all good,



good
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Take a look at the Gulf, what do you see?



Favorable western Gulf of Mexico, overall good set-up for upper level outflow.
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2241. Levi32
CIMSS maps are not updating but here is PSU 925mb vorticity, rather strong in the vicinity of 96L but northwest of most of the convection.

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Quoting Tazmanian:



un less you have me on Ignore and you dont see this you have mail


I saw your mail, I dont have you on ignore lol

its all good,
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2238. Dakster
Kind like being pregnant, you either are or are not... So favorable winds conducive for development would be more accurate?
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2237. bappit
Quoting StormW:


Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development.


So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop.
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And, the four horseman ride.....
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StormW I see shear in the Eastern Gulf
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Quoting goalexgo:
This is the best 4th ever!!! No beach, no sailing, no barbeque....4 invests and a 5th tomorrow. Life is good.


there are only 2 invests

not sure what the 5th area is you are talking about
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
Ok we are breaking up into teams for these 2 systems lol

Drak and Storm will head the discussion on 96L
Levi and 456 will head the discussion on the wave east of the Islands

Now people need to sign up for 1 system only lol; first come first serve

Invest 96L

1
2
3
4
5

Area east of Islands

1
2
3
4
5

I will take the area east of the Islands lol




un less you have me on Ignore and you dont see this you have mail
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Looking a this loop.....we for sure have a Surface LOW..http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
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2231. nash28
Favorable shear in the WGOMEX.
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whats up levi i was wondering about you you hit it dead on the head you tampa 456
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Take a look at the Gulf, what do you see?

My guess is that there is an anticyclone moving along with 96L. Ughhhh...The suspense kills, lol.
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2228. Levi32
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Evening Levi...or mid day...sun's up all day nearly up there...


Well it's afternoon here but I have to accommodate the dominant time-zone in here lol.
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Take a look at the Gulf, what do you see?



I see a ridge extending from the EUSA into the GOM with a center near NOLA. Are you trying to tell me this is 96l?

I also see shear in the EGOM.
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Good Evening Levi, Storm, Tampa, Rita, Nash! All we need now is for JPHurricane2006 to show up and we would be complete! lol
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Take a look at the Gulf, what do you see?


more importantly, what do you see stormw?:)
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This is the best 4th ever!!! No beach, no sailing, no barbeque....4 invests and a 5th tomorrow. Life is good.
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2222. Dakster
Stormw - Favorable shear?
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2221. bappit
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Land Rover is ready here...LOL..bad habit I picked up in Africa..can drive through water up to the windows..if it isn't moving too fast!!!

"Moving too fast" is key. Do not drive into water that covers the road.

Also worth noting, National Guard diesel trucks were used after Allison. TV commentators kept repeating how they could run just as long as their exhaust pipe stayed above water. They were saying that just as they televised one of those trucks run off the road into a ditch. The whole thing went under water.

Similar story recently in Houston with a lady who tried to get her car out of a flooded street. (An MCS dropped about 5 inches in two hours.) She drove drove off the road way into a flood retention pond over six feet deep. She drowned.
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Quoting StormW:


Exactly!


Big GULP!
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Levi32:
Good evening all. It looks like things are really heating up out there.


Evening Levi...or mid day...sun's up all day nearly up there...
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Quoting TampaSpin:
Is anyone else having problem with the Nasa satellite site


I was the other day for no reason. It's working for me at the moment.
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


You're heard here Taz.. No worries..



thanks
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Quoting RitaEvac:
I keep thinking of that Staples commercial of that guy saying "WOW! thats a low price!"

But him looking at the NHC page with 4 circles out there saying "WOW! thats another circle!"


LOL....... :)
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2213. pottery
Greetings, Taz!
Things are warming up...
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2212. Levi32
It's bumming me out that the CIMSS analysis maps haven't updated since 15z.
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Ok we are breaking up into teams for these 2 systems lol

Drak and Storm will head the discussion on 96L
Levi and 456 will head the discussion on the wave east of the Islands

Now people need to sign up for 1 system only lol; first come first serve

Invest 96L

1
2
3
4
5

Area east of Islands

1
2
3
4
5

I will take the area east of the Islands lol

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And just think, Dr Masters thought the season might not "kick off" until early/mid July. Oops. Here on the 4TH of July we have 95L, 96L and 2 more AOI's, one near the Bahamas and one near the Windward Islands.
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Is anyone else having problem with the Nasa satellite site
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I keep thinking of that Staples commercial of that guy saying "WOW! thats a low price!"

But him looking at the NHC page with 4 circles out there saying "WOW! thats another circle!"
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2206. Levi32
Quoting nash28:
Yo Levi.


Hey there Nash :)
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Quoting Tazmanian:
i dont no how many of you got me on Ignore but the ones that dos i this like too say sorry about be for i guss i did yet thing go out of hand so if any one see this am sorry


You're heard here Taz.. No worries..
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Picture I saw on Accuweather.

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2203. JRRP
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Quoting Weather456:


Alex was that costly?

Just goes to show, it only takes one.
Yup.
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2201. nash28
Yo Levi.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.