A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2301. beell


NDBC 42056
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Sorry pple, but every time I see that graphic again, I think "96L and the Yellows"... like a 50s doowop group.... lol
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


That seems imminent ..good eyes if you ask me...



thanks do you ues facebook i like too add any one oh ues facebook
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95L is a joke. NHC really needs to stop pushing it.
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Is that a Trough on the cmc T=60 h round about where 95L is to go ashore + or -?
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Enjoy all..off to pick up the wife and get her car from the airport and then dinner in NOLA...don't go cross eyed watching too close..share some ribs and watch the local skies for some fireworks too!!! Enjoy all!
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2294. Levi32
Quoting bappit:

Ummmm, the NHC says there is a tropical wave moving through and StormW says there ain't.


There is a tropical wave "moving through" which is the key phase. It didn't spawn 96L, and 96L is not a tropical wave.
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StormW I guess this is what you meant....4 Oct 1995.

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2292. xcool
HMM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2291. USSINS
Quoting Levi32:


Hey homeless lol. I know I've been gone all day so I'm catching up on stuff too.


Happy 4th, Levi, but go ahead and hurry up and give us the 411 on 95L. Small system, building convection on the west side now. An overnight surprise maybe? What's your take?

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well it had a T1.0 earlier, that was the surprise. Lol.


Why was that a surprise....NO surprise here?
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but opal didnt go to texas
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Quoting jpritch:
This is so frustrating. We're supposed to fly from Austin to Cancun via Houston on Friday. It can't really wait. :(


Are you kidding me I'm leaving Houston on Tuesday to Vegas and now everybody is saying storm in Gulf. And I might be in the line of fire, cant even enjoy a vacation!
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Quoting Tazmanian:



my eyes see 3 name strom un less i need new eyes


That seems imminent ..good eyes if you ask me...
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2286. bappit
Quoting Levi32:


The vorticity is being caused by positive feedback. Low pressures over boiling water.....this was festering for a couple of days before the tropical wave arrived. The monsoon trough has also had a tendency to drift north into that area to enhance convergence. The heat buildup got enhanced by a cold upper TUTT low early on, which then backed away to the southwest and ventilated the area.

Ummmm, the NHC says there is a tropical wave moving through and StormW says there ain't.
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2285. Dakster
Hmmm. An "Opal" in July -- What in the world does August and September have in store for us.
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Quoting StormW:


Close...memory brings back the same upper patter that strengthened OPAL...Weak trof to it's west; ridge to the N


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2283. Patrap
This will all be over in 99 Hours. So best follow the Guidance and timing and spread the Word we could have a significant Hurricane Mid Gulf Come Late Tuesday.

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Quoting SevereHurricane:


What a surprise...
Well it had a T1.0 earlier, that was the surprise. Lol.
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Quoting Levi32:


Well it's afternoon here but I have to accommodate the dominant time-zone in here lol.


LOLOL years in Minnesota taught me to love watching the sun skim the horizon, but for you it's more of a circle...Northern Indian here...working in NOLA this week...Africa last year..FL for the beaches...time zone what is a time zone...? Where am I..?
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i smell a TD
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My only hope is if we get all this activity in July with storms and convections with invests, maybe it will cool off the waters in time for August/September so an average setup is there instead of hyperactive activity
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2278. Levi32
Quoting homelesswanderer:


UGH! Don't even know why they bothered! Heck don't even know why I bothered looking. I'll never learn. :(

Oh and Hi Levi. I'm hopelessly behind on posts. Lol.


Hey homeless lol. I know I've been gone all day so I'm catching up on stuff too.
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Quoting DestinJeff:


matches this...




my eyes see 3 name strom un less i need new eyes
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2276. JRRP
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
04/2345 UTC 27.7N 89.8W TOO WEAK 95L


What a surprise...
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Quoting StormW:


Close...memory brings back the same upper pattern that strengthened OPAL...Weak trof to it's west; ridge to the N

Opal? and most likely going to TX? ughhhhhh
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
2273. Patrap
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2272. bappit
StormW is Master.
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2271. Levi32
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi everyone. Hope y'all enjoyed the holiday.
Can hear the crackers starting to go off at the beach. Every year they post "no fireworks" and every year it's a big show down there.

I see not the only thing cooking today was on the barbecue.



Where is the invest east of the Windwards supposed to track?


The tropical wave east of the islands will track through the Caribbean. The CMC tries to feedback the northern portion of the wave and take it north of the islands and up east of the U.S., but I have doubts that will happen. The bulk of the energy is going west through the Caribbean, where it could be trouble down the road farther west.
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2270. jpritch
This is so frustrating. We're supposed to fly from Austin to Cancun via Houston on Friday. It can't really wait. :(
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Who Left The Crayons Out?
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04/2345 UTC 27.7N 89.8W TOO WEAK 95L
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Quoting lordhuracan01:


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

3. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NNNN



is been posted 20 times now lol
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Happy 4th Everyone!

Hurricane season is acting in the great words of Bonnie Raitt, "Let's give 'em something to talk about!"

Speaking of Bonnie, we could have her by Wednesday. We might also see Colin before the week is out. This could get interesting...
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


LOL....I totally understand....Course channel 6 doesn't really say anything until they feel more certain of the situation.....BUT, with that said they could at least mention that it is possible if things at the moment may suggest it.


UGH! Don't even know why they bothered! Heck don't even know why I bothered looking. I'll never learn. :(

Oh and Hi Levi. I'm hopelessly behind on posts. Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting TampaSpin:


The crew is on tonite...LOL.....dang it...LOL


LOL!
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Some wild stuff from TPC...Would not be suprised to see 3-4 named storms in july. Could have been 5 with wave that just rolled of the african coast.
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2261. Patrap
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Quoting StormW:


Close...memory brings back the same upper patter that strengthened OPAL...Weak trof to it's west; ridge to the N
Sounds like a very interesting set-up for July. Something to take into consideration is that Opal is the 9th strongest hurricane in recorded history, so it definitely is a favorable set-up.
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Quoting bappit:

"Moving too fast" is key. Do not drive into water that covers the road.

Also worth noting, National Guard diesel trucks were used after Allison. TV commentators kept repeating how they could run just as long as their exhaust pipe stayed above water. They were saying that just as they televised one of those trucks run off the road into a ditch. The whole thing went under water.

Similar story recently in Houston with a lady who tried to get her car out of a flooded street. (An MCS dropped about 5 inches in two hours.) She drove drove off the road way into a flood retention pond over six feet deep. She drowned.


Years of experience in the worst bush (and river crossings) driving in Africa...so well advised here..and that's a good reminder to all!
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Quoting StormW:
456,
Take a look at the Gulf, what do you see?


That somebody left the barn door open?
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I just see different colors
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2256. Patrap
Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance
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2255. Levi32
Quoting bappit:
Quoting StormW:


Alex was blocked by a mid level ridge, not upper...and regardless of what the NHC has, it's not a wave...it's the same monsoonal, Typhoon type development.


So the first point sounds like a semantic issue. The second one is more interesting. What is supplying the vorticity for 96L? It seems a lot different from Alex in that respect. With Alex it took a long time for vorticity to develop.


The vorticity is being caused by positive feedback. Low pressures over boiling water.....this was festering for a couple of days before the tropical wave arrived. The monsoon trough has also had a tendency to drift north into that area to enhance convergence. The heat buildup got enhanced by a cold upper TUTT low early on, which then backed away to the southwest and ventilated the area.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 125
MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST. THIS LOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR
SO...THEN TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER THAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING.

2. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME...NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND AND MUCH OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

3. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE BAHAMAS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN AND POSSIBLY BECOME STATIONARY EAST
OF THE BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

4. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL
BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD AND
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD
ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART
NNNN
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Quoting SiestaCpl:


No time for worries we have "stuff" all over the sat maps...need us all watching..well mother nature doesn't need us at all..but it is fun to watch the systems at work 'eh?

Your good here....enjoy! Hope others listen as well...



me tooo
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Quoting SevereHurricane:
Good Evening Levi, Storm, Tampa, Rita, Nash! All we need now is for JPHurricane2006 to show up and we would be complete! lol


The crew is on tonite...LOL.....dang it...LOL
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nevere mine
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.