A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Very Ironic are we sure this isn't ground hog day. lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2400. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2398. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
901

WHXX01 KWBC 050057

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0057 UTC MON JUL 5 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL952010) 20100705 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100705 0000 100705 1200 100706 0000 100706 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 27.5N 90.1W 28.4N 91.9W 29.2N 93.4W 30.0N 94.9W

BAMD 27.5N 90.1W 27.8N 91.4W 28.2N 92.7W 28.8N 93.9W

BAMM 27.5N 90.1W 28.1N 91.5W 28.8N 93.0W 29.5N 94.3W

LBAR 27.5N 90.1W 27.9N 90.9W 28.7N 91.5W 29.6N 92.3W

SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS

DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100707 0000 100708 0000 100709 0000 100710 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 30.5N 96.3W 30.7N 99.7W 30.6N 103.9W 30.8N 108.1W

BAMD 29.3N 95.2W 30.5N 98.4W 31.4N 101.7W 32.0N 104.5W

BAMM 30.1N 95.6W 30.9N 99.0W 31.3N 102.8W 31.7N 106.4W

LBAR 30.8N 93.1W 33.4N 94.3W 36.1N 93.7W 38.2N 90.0W

SHIP 41KTS 51KTS 52KTS 49KTS

DSHP 29KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 27.5N LONCUR = 90.1W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 2KT

LATM12 = 27.2N LONM12 = 90.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 3KT

LATM24 = 27.5N LONM24 = 88.4W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 60NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN





140

WHXX01 KWBC 050057

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0057 UTC MON JUL 5 2010



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 0000 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

100705 0000 100705 1200 100706 0000 100706 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 16.9N 82.9W 19.0N 84.9W 21.1N 86.6W 23.1N 88.3W

BAMD 16.9N 82.9W 18.1N 84.2W 19.1N 85.5W 20.1N 86.5W

BAMM 16.9N 82.9W 18.3N 84.3W 19.7N 85.8W 21.1N 87.1W

LBAR 16.9N 82.9W 17.8N 84.0W 18.9N 85.5W 19.9N 87.1W

SHIP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 47KTS

DSHP 30KTS 36KTS 43KTS 40KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

100707 0000 100708 0000 100709 0000 100710 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 24.8N 89.8W 27.2N 93.1W 28.3N 96.5W 28.7N 99.8W

BAMD 20.8N 87.7W 21.3N 90.4W 21.3N 94.2W 21.4N 98.5W

BAMM 22.3N 88.4W 24.0N 91.7W 25.2N 95.8W 25.9N 99.8W

LBAR 21.2N 88.9W 24.1N 92.7W 27.0N 96.1W 29.3N 98.0W

SHIP 51KTS 58KTS 66KTS 69KTS

DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 61KTS 35KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 16.9N LONCUR = 82.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 6KT

LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 82.2W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 6KT

LATM24 = 15.4N LONM24 = 80.8W

WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
From Dallas NWS:

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TROPICS ONCE AGAIN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS POISED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY
MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS LIKE IT IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING
THE TX COAST BY LATE WEEK. WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND CONTINUED WEAKNESS OVER WEST TEXAS...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
IT ORGANIZES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GFS SHOWS PWS CLIMBING TO
NEAR 2.5 INCHES ON THURSDAY AND ECMWF/GEM ARE ALSO GENEROUS WITH
QPF STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH
RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND PREFER GFS TIMING OF THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAYS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN THU-FRI. MODELS BRING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN FROM THE
EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN
INCLUSION OF AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK TO THE LOW-MID 90S SAT-SUN.


I live in the DFW area, I noticed that earlier. We had 4.70" of rain at the Arlington Municipal AP, 3 miles from my house. We can use the rain, however Brownsville, Victoria or Houston, TX does not want 96L!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2396. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What?

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 164N, 826W, 30, 1009, DB,

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,


I was looking on here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2395. Patrap
Run


lol


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2394. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yeah, I came back from dinner, and thought someone had posted an altered graphic! LOL!

Quoting StormW:


Yeah, I came back from dinner, and thought someone had posted an altered graphic! LOL!

Me too. LOL> Senior, how big is a Cutter? In all my 25 years in the Corps I honestly don't think I have ever seen one?
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2393. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
2392. beell
Quoting Tazmanian:



last i here the CIMSS maps where not updating



You're right, Taz. That loops stops this morning-but I don't think the overall movement has changed much.
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2391. JRRP
dry in front the wave near antilles
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
Quoting IKE:


It's moved .2N and .6E....
What?

AL, 96, 2010070418, , BEST, 0, 164N, 826W, 30, 1009, DB,

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2389. Patrap


Quoting Drakoen:


The one closest to the system that isn't ridiculous


Always...
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2388. Drakoen
Quoting pottery:

So, which one to believe??


The one closest to the system that isn't ridiculous
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Quoting IKE:


It's moved .2N and .6E....


IKE you have mail
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2386. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Hey, pottery. rainy enough for u down there? I'd be happy enough if we didn't keep getting a power outage with every lightning storm..... lol

heheheh
we had 2 outages here this last week, one for 5 hours.
Some overhead lightening that set the alarms off in the cars and shook this old house to the foundations.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2385. IKE
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L moving NW/NNW.

AL, 96, 2010070500, , BEST, 0, 169N, 829W, 30, 1009, DB,


It's moved .2N and .6E....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
From Dallas NWS:

ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE TROPICS ONCE AGAIN AS TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA IS POISED TO ENTER THE CENTRAL GULF TUESDAY
MORNING. THE DISTURBANCE LOOKS LIKE IT IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED TODAY...AND MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT A
SURFACE LOW WILL CLOSE OFF BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY BEFORE REACHING
THE TX COAST BY LATE WEEK. WITH A STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...AND CONTINUED WEAKNESS OVER WEST TEXAS...THIS
SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
IT ORGANIZES INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. GFS SHOWS PWS CLIMBING TO
NEAR 2.5 INCHES ON THURSDAY AND ECMWF/GEM ARE ALSO GENEROUS WITH
QPF STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY MAY BE A BIT TOO FAST WITH
RAIN CHANCES FROM THIS SYSTEM...AND PREFER GFS TIMING OF THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAYS FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD DROP BACK DOWN BELOW NORMAL WITH THE INCREASED CLOUDS
AND RAIN THU-FRI. MODELS BRING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN FROM THE
EAST BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH FOR AN
INCLUSION OF AFTERNOON ISOLATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE TEMPS SHOULD
BOUNCE BACK TO THE LOW-MID 90S SAT-SUN.

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Quoting Drakoen:
I see that reading at 42056 as being anomalous as I am not finding surrounding pressures in the vicinity of that reading anywhere near that.


a new low could be forming???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2381. Drakoen
I see that reading at 42056 as being anomalous as I am not finding surrounding pressures in the vicinity of that reading anywhere near that.
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2380. Patrap
Okay...you heard it here first folks.

Sheesh.
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Quoting beell:
CIMSS 850mb Vorticity-5 Day Loop



last i here the CIMSS maps where not updating
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2378. pottery
Quoting Drakoen:
Buoy 42057 which is closer to 96L is reporting a pressure around 1012mb...

So, which one to believe??
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2376. beell
CIMSS 850mb Vorticity-5 Day Loop
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how many days till impact on Gulf are we looking at?
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Quoting Weather456:


The upper flow around the periphery of 96L's upper anticyclone is enhancing the line of daytime thunderstorms over the Yucatan and Cuba. It can be nicely seen on WV imagery.

Upward motion, upward motion, upward motion..I cannot stress it enough, is causing pressures to drop. This upward motion is being caused by 96L's well developed exhaust system and warm ssts.

Thanks, I thought that is what caused the 0.06" pressure drop in that area. The convection near 96L has been "gently boiling" all day long, and I can only imagine what 96L will look like at D-Max in the am, now at D-Min and looks very healthy. I noticed the awesome outflow at about 1 PM CDT today. Hopefully this will not turn into a beast!
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
BBL
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Why are some on here calling 96L alex? alex is dead and gone
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2371. Levi32
Quoting Weather456:


The upper flow around the periphery of 96L's upper anticyclone is enhancing the line of daytime thunderstorms over the Yucatan and Cuba. It can be nicely seen on WV imagery.

Upward motion, upward motion, upward motion..I cannot stress it enough, is causing pressures to drop. This upward motion is being caused by 96L's well developed exhaust system and warm ssts.


Yup. Another massive heat buildup in the atmosphere. Hard to believe we are seeing another Alex, typhoon-like development in the western Caribbean just a week later. We'll probably be seeing more of this as the atmosphere just explodes due to all the heat energy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2370. JRRP
Quoting lordhuracan01:
2005

28 NAMED STORM



2010

A 20
B 25
C 30
D ?

less than 20
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 6213
2369. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Got that right!

Good to see you here tonight.

Evening Senior Chief. Things be a cookin on this Independence Day.
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2368. Patrap
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Link

Not a very good setup this looks like its going to do some pulling in the next several days I think.
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Quoting Levi32:


Oh snap.


What he said. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
2365. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:
dos any one think will have a TD by sunday PM?Nop! It's ten to nine here already LOL!
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2364. Drakoen
TAFB:

DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.5 PAT=
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2363. Levi32
Quoting kuppenskup:


how much did it drop?


According to the graph 0.06 inches in 1 hour, which is rather big considering its relation to 96L, but we'll see what this hour's report shows.
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2362. Kibkaos
This is going to be a very busy week. I might need to get a canoe to get around soon. Is there something in the Bay of Campeche or is it a part of the 96L?
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Quoting Bordonaro:

Any idea what is going on? A pressure drop of 0.06" in one hour? Could it be from 96L's outflow, creating the big line of showers/t-storms over the Yucatan Peninsula causing the pressure drop?


The upper flow around the periphery of 96L's upper anticyclone is enhancing the line of daytime thunderstorms over the Yucatan and Cuba. It can be nicely seen on WV imagery.

Upward motion, upward motion, upward motion..I cannot stress it enough, is causing pressures to drop. This upward motion is being caused by 96L's well developed exhaust system and warm ssts.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Drakoen:
Buoy 42057 which is closer to 96L is reporting a pressure around 1012mb...
This is impressive nonetheless:

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Quoting helove2trac:
well if it is the same setup as opal shouldnt it follow the same path?


Unfortuantly this looks like a threat to same areas that were impacted by alex in my view.
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Quoting helove2trac:
Taz where do you live? its already sunday pm



I live on the W coast so i feel vary safe
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Quoting StormW:


Got that right!

Good to see you here tonight.


In your opinion do you think the ridge can build in quickly enough to turn Alex Westward before it reaches my coastline?(Not trying to pin it on Texas lol) Or could it possibly curve Westward after hitting SE TX or Louisiana thats what i'm worried about its gunna be close
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JB this eve.


SUNDAY 9 PM

WHY IS THIS A WHACK A MOLE PATTERN?


Look for yourself


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
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Quoting pottery:

Good one, Baha!
Hey, pottery. rainy enough for u down there? I'd be happy enough if we didn't keep getting a power outage with every lightning storm..... lol
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2354. Levi32
96L looks like it has a closed mid-level circulation but still an inverted trough at the surface.
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Quoting Levi32:


A pressure drop like that in the tropics is never good.


how much did it drop?
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2352. pottery
Quoting Levi32:
Low-level steering:



Mid-level steering:


The steering (mid level) for the East Antilles AOI is west, and a touch southwest.
Not a good sign for the Islands....
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2351. Drakoen
Buoy 42057 which is closer to 96L is reporting a pressure around 1012mb...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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