A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2451. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty:



Maybe so. 2mb's in 1 hr.
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah, both consensus models..TVCC also.
Not good for the folks in Texas.
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2449. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


No problem for the wave, the SAL is moving along with it, the wave would have to move faster to get caught up in it
Quoting pottery:

That is SAL aerosols on that image. Not water vapour. There is some slightly drier air to the west of the system, but not by much.

gracias por la aclaracion :)
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Quoting Dakster:


Yep... BTW, Are you Fire Rescue in Key West?
logistics chief for key west rescue
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2447. JamesSA
I just took a look at the BP ROV cams and the only activity I see is they are hooking up their unattended dispersant system.

I think they have noticed 96L too. :-( Not a good sign.
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2446. Patrap
00Z New Batch Model Runs 96L
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2445. Patrap
geeuzum..

LOl
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Quoting beell:


Make sure you click "Storm 96" at the top.
No use, doesn't work for me.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well that's weird.


Not at all, ATCF is preliminary, unofficial data.
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2442. Dakster
Quoting WindynEYW:
Geeze i am gone 20 minutes , i run a cardiac arrest call & dispatch 2 other rescues, i come back & there are 7 pages of blog to catch up on, gonna break out some of the good stuff & slooooooow the blog down below light spped so i can catch up


Yep... BTW, Are you Fire Rescue in Key West?
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Quoting Levi32:
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty:

I just looked at that buoy and it has pressure at 1006 mb and falling rapidly but isn't that too far north for 96L ?
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Quoting Levi32:
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty:

Yeah I would say it is.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



keep i would re move it or you risk geting banned
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Link

96L will defently travel NW to NNW for a day or two.
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2436. beell
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can you post the image, I can't see it for some reason.


Make sure you click "Storm 96" at the top.
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2435. pottery
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Diurnal minimum taking its toll on 96L since it doesn't have a well-defined circulation.

DMIN does not seem to have affected the east Antilles blob too much. DMAX is going to be rather spectacular, I think...
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Quoting StormW:
Models came right.

STATISTICAL MODELS


DYNAMIC MODELS

Good call Storm! How bout that TVCN taking it to central Texas?
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2433. Patrap
Purr-fect KOTG


Madness..takes it toll
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2432. Levi32
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty:

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Quoting IKE:


It's moved .2N and .6E....
so, it has moved nne?
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (CDT) Pressure
7:50 pm 29.71 in

Is that buoy near that huge T-storm complex over the Yucatan Peninsula? If so the sudden decrease in pressure may have been caused by that. It happens here in N TX during severe thunderstorms every once in a while.
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I feel much better, this is a piece from NWS in Houston I copied and pasted here....

Moisture from
the tropical wave in the Caribbean may also push northward toward
the area during the latter half of the week as well. If so...
higher rain chances may be needed. For now any development of the
Caribbean system is expected to be well to the south.
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2428. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Diurnal minimum taking its toll on 96L since it doesn't have a well-defined circulation.


convection with the TW east of the Antilles is enhanced by something right?
It made it through D-min suspiciously good. :\
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2427. bappit
Quoting beell:


NDBC 42056

*gasp*
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Ike you are correct in that the original 18Z coordinates were 16.7 83.5. With the latest update to ATCF they changed 18Z to 16.4 82.6.
Well that's weird.
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2424. JamesSA
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Can you post the image, I can't see it for some reason.
You have to click the tab for "Storm 96".
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2423. pottery
Quoting JRRP:
dry in front the wave near antilles

That is SAL aerosols on that image. Not water vapour. There is some slightly drier air to the west of the system, but not by much.
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Geeze i am gone 20 minutes , i run a cardiac arrest call & dispatch 2 other rescues, i come back & there are 7 pages of blog to catch up on, gonna break out some of the good stuff & slooooooow the blog down below light spped so i can catch up
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Quoting Levi32:
There is a serious decrease in convection currently with 96L, but it should burst again during the night.

Diurnal minimum taking its toll on 96L since it doesn't have a well-defined circulation.
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Quoting IKE:


It's moved .2N and .6E....


Ike you are correct in that the original 18Z coordinates were 16.7 83.5. With the latest update to ATCF they changed 18Z to 16.4 82.6.
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Anybody see HGW in the blog recently?
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2418. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:
dry in front the wave near antilles


No problem for the wave, the SAL is moving along with it, the wave would have to move faster to get caught up in it
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Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I'm waiting for this hour's report to come in to see if the reading remains the same. You don't often see these buoys just randomly go haywire, but this one may have.
Supplemental Measurements Lowest 1-minute Pressure
Time (CDT) Pressure
7:50 pm 29.71 in
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2416. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
and then a step to the right..

Put yer hands on yer hip's
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 171 Comments: 53851
2415. Levi32
BAM suite shifted slightly north.

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2414. Levi32
There is a serious decrease in convection currently with 96L, but it should burst again during the night.

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Quoting Patrap:
00Z New Batch Model Runs 96L
Can you post the image, I can't see it for some reason.
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2412. Hhunter
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2411. Patrap
and then a step to the right..

Put yer hands on yer hip's
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Thisfrom the 8:05 discussion:

MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS.

Seems to suggest that whatever is forming out of this system isn't likely to spin up before midweek....
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2408. Patrap
00Z New Batch Model Runs 96L
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2407. JRRP
this image have been deleted
a peticion popular
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Quoting JRRP:
dry in front the wave near antilles


When should that dry air in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic start to lift?
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Quoting IKE:


I was looking on here.
Well they are the incorrect coordinates, I'll take the ATCF site.
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2404. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:
I see that reading at 42056 as being anomalous as I am not finding surrounding pressures in the vicinity of that reading anywhere near that.


Yeah I'm waiting for this hour's report to come in to see if the reading remains the same. You don't often see these buoys just randomly go haywire, but this one may have.
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2403. pottery
Quoting Drakoen:


The one closest to the system that isn't ridiculous

sense...
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2402. Patrap
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Link

Very Ironic are we sure this isn't ground hog day. lol
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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