A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Hi Storm - If that 1006mb pressure from 42056 is valid then we might have a center forming somewhere near the buoy based on it's light winds so far.
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Quoting StormW:


I think the point some folks are missing, yes...there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean...NO! 96L IS NOT PART OF IT...THE WAVE DID NOT CAUSE the formation of 96L!
Oh I understand that very clearly. I think we can all agree that the tropical wave only was added later to the equation but 96L did not form out of a tropical wave.
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2498. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:
Some terrible squalls here in SouthWest(South Sound) , Grand Cayman, can't stand the howling, have to take a clonazepam to relax.

Wow! Looks like you are in for a bad night!
Take care...
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My forecast for Rochester, NY
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2496. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


I think the point some folks are missing, yes...there is a tropical wave in the Caribbean...NO! 96L IS NOT PART OF IT...THE WAVE DID NOT CAUSE the formation of 96L!


Exactly.
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2495. JRRP
Quoting Levi32:
96L isn't a tropical wave. Explain how 96L's area of disturbed weather was festering 2-3 days before the wave at 87W even arrived? And barely moved 1 degree longitude during that time?

now i understand jejeje
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Quoting JLPR2:
What is it with this pictures that makes everything look intimidating LOL!


Please tell me that's not headed toward the area 96L is in , I'm starting to feel a little sick to be honest.
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2492. Levi32
The NHC loves to explain away lots of things with tropical waves. They did the same thing with 92L.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Yeah, those are nice, but I'll have to wait for New Year's to see some of those XD
Meanwhile expect the Wunderphotos section to be filled with fireworks pictures LOL!
LOL!
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2490. Levi32
Quoting StormW:
Levi?


Storm?
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hey Drakoen I don't even think that the COC is even where the BEST track plots puts it I think it is more like at 17.6N 81.2W and movement to the NW-NNW
As msgambler just said, I don't know squat either but that is exactly what I see.
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2488. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actual fireworks. LOL, very beautiful.


Yeah, those are nice, but I'll have to wait for New Year's to see some of those XD
Meanwhile expect the Wunderphotos section to be filled with fireworks pictures LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
This is for Storm W:

I've paid attention to your contributions for several years and am impressed with your professionalism. Your attitude and caring for the individuals who know some or little about Meteorology. You are patient and understanding and this is so important. Thank you.

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Quoting Levi32:
96L isn't a tropical wave. Explain how 96L's area of disturbed weather was festering 2-3 days before the wave at 87W even arrived? And barely moved 1 degree longitude during that time?
The NHC thinks otherwise, even though I think you are correct.

From the 8:40PM EDT discussion:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...FROM
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN HONDURAS
NEAR 15N84W...CONTINUING INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF CONSIDERABLY HIGH VALUES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ENCOMPASSING THE WAVE. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THE VISIBLE SPECTRUM. CURRENT WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV
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Link

36 h still moving NW to NNW.
Is this about the same time frame that Trof is to open up between Tx. and Miss.?
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Some terrible squalls here in SouthWest(South Sound) , Grand Cayman, can't stand the howling, have to take a clonazepam to relax.
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2481. JLPR2
What is it with this pictures that makes everything look intimidating LOL!

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
I'm surprised we don't have 97L yet, expect it at any moment.
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2479. pottery
Quoting JLPR2:


This one is better?

Yeah! Good one.
You can see the convection with the system pushing the drier air away in front of it. North west.
No doubt the dry air will help to restrict performance, and perhaps this is why the NHC has it at 20% for now.
Going to give the islands some heavy rain I think.
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2478. Levi32
96L isn't a tropical wave. Explain how 96L's area of disturbed weather was festering 2-3 days before the wave at 87W even arrived? And barely moved 1 degree longitude during that time?
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Hey Drakoen I don't even think that the COC is even where the BEST track plots puts it I think it is more like at 17.6N 81.2W and movement to the NW-NNW
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Is that actual fireworks of weather fireworks? lol
Actual fireworks. LOL, very beautiful.
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Quoting HouGalv08:
Just got back after dinner. Then the name would have to be "Alexis".


I would say Alexandra. But Alexis will do! =)
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2473. Levi32
Quoting bigdoge3:
I pray this doesn't develop or anything. I live in friendswood which is by galveston and we got hammered with rain a lot of flooding in houses and stuff even though he made landfall in mexico. We don't need another storm please Levi StormW anyone don't develop this.



If I could stop it I would! I can only try to help figure out where it will go if it does develop.
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2472. bappit
Quoting StormW:


Well, looking at the maps, the wave at 18Z was located near 87W...96L at 2315Z was located near 84W.

So the Lake Charles office and NHC are wrong? The NHC said:
...Special feature... A tropical wave is analyzed over the far NW Caribbean...from western Cuba near 22n82w extending southwest to eastern Honduras near 15n84w...continuing into the far eastern tropical Pacific. This wave is embedded in an area of considerably high values of total precipitable water. Furthermore...water vapor imagery also indicates high values of moisture in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere encompassing the wave. Broad cyclonic circulation is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis and most of the western Caribbean on the visible spectrum.
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Hello

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

First mission for Monday afternoon if needed for 96L
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm just north of Bayside and the fireworks are going off left and right.


Is that actual fireworks of weather fireworks? lol
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7874
Quoting Levi32:


Alex? Lol.

It's the son of Alex.

Or actually maybe the daughter?
Just got back after dinner. Then the name would have to be "Alexis".
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Check out the pressure fall at 42056

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2467. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, I said earlier that I'm thinking LA/MS area. But like I said then. I don't know squat.


Neither do I..

But No sir,

..I dont like it already.


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129841
2413 MiamiHurricanes09 "Can you [Patrap] post the image, I can't see it for some reason."

Gotta push the Storm96 button above the top right corner.
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I'm just north of Bayside and the fireworks are going off left and right.
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Pat, I said earlier that I'm thinking LA/MS area. But like I said then. I don't know squat.
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I pray this doesn't develop or anything. I live in friendswood which is by galveston and we got hammered with rain a lot of flooding in houses and stuff even though he made landfall in mexico. We don't need another storm please Levi StormW anyone don't develop this.
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2461. JavPR
any info on that disturbance southeast of PR? It has caught me by surprise and it has 20%...
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2460. jpritch
What is the time frame on the most recent models? I know it's too early yet, but as far as ballpark arrival on shore...
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Just look at the NHC site, what a difference a day makes!
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2458. help4u
Is the TVCN model the one that the national hurricane center go with on most of there forcast tracks?
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Rains here have once again commenced here in Cayman…along with squalls of about 25-30mph right now. I feel this is the beginning of a rather wet and windy night. Seems to be coming out of the ESE.
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Quoting xcool:


Hey xcool. Didn't see ya come in. :)
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2455. Dakster
Quoting WindynEYW:
logistics chief for key west rescue


Nice... I bet it is crazy in Key West right now.
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Also Buoy 42056 is reporting a rapid pressure fall currently 1006mb so suspect it may be near a newly forming TD center over the NW Caribbean Sea.
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2453. JLPR2
Quoting pottery:

That is SAL aerosols on that image. Not water vapour. There is some slightly drier air to the west of the system, but not by much.


This one is better?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Crazy... 4 circles on NHC now
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2451. beell
Quoting Levi32:
Yeah I'm tempted to say this is faulty:



Maybe so. 2mb's in 1 hr.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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