A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Patrap:
I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time.

LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Surprisingly,18z HWRF doesnt develop 96L significantly and takes it into upper
Texas coast in about 4 days.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5199. JLPR2
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.


haha! XD
now that would make me laugh till tomorrow :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Really 0% ?
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
LMAO back to near 0% LMAO
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
WTF NEAR 0 PERCENT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5195. calder
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 052358
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 5 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT
...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
LOUISIANA ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY. NOW THAT THE
SYSTEM IS OVER LAND AND WILL MOVE FARTHER INLAND TONIGHT...TROPICAL
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NO LONGER EXPECTED. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. INTERESTS SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES
AND ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND WESTERN
CUBA OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/CANGIALOSI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Maybe the NHC guys and gals are all trapped in the "disagreement" room...lol
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Nice spin localizing around 86w 20n...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1 minute
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.


LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.
LMAO!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Ike is quick on the trigger. He will post it first!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5183. beell
Thought this site might be useful if you have the ICAO station ID. But it seems like they can't keep time well. Maybe it will get straighter, later.

The 6:43PM obs was posted long before 6:43PM CDT
Cozumel Surface Obs (MMCZ-Cozumel International)

ESE @ 8knots
1009.5 mb
MMCZ


Latest obs for this one showing 8:45PM, July 5th? What time zone?

Cancun Surface Obs (MMUN-Cancun International)
Calm
1009.1
MMUN

ICAO 4-Letter Identifiers for
Bahamas/Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Geez, Still two min. before the hour and calling them late?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


LMAO


That's pretty much the same warning I got for Claudette last year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5180. Patrap
I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time.

Now?

How bout now?

really..wait?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.
roflmao...or maybe they upgrade it red- 98%
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what if they did it after 8 lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting ElConando:

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.


LMAO
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
Quoting btwntx08:
probably doing a special advisory thats why its taking long
There isn't anything that warrants a special advisory, especially not 95L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193

Prob be somthing like this.

Tropical storm Bonnie forms in the Northern Gulf. This will the the last advisory on Tropical storm Bonnie.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5174. xcool
btwntx08 YOU FIND OUT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting wfyweather:
ive never seen it this late


Probably never watched it this close.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
If he is right I'll do something nice, lol.


Guess we're about to find out.
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Quoting Kristina40:


Another worry...


We WERE enjoying unseasonably dry weather here in LA..but now..bands of tropical rain...and darn humid...95L will pump the moisture in from the FL rain disturbances and suck the dry in from the Western gulf emptying that dry zone just in time for a 96L possible approach...
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still waiting lol
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5168. xcool
<< NO TALK JUST GO LOL
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96L forming spokes-on-a-wheel feeder storms. Sign of the tropical centering technique.
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ive never seen it this late
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Quoting Kristina40:
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.


Yeah, saw that. I think he lurks on wu blog more than I do...
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5164. xcool
MiamiHur :0 .
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok so based on your smile and the email, lemme gueess

NHC either upgraded 95L to a TD or TS OR the percentage went up and they plan on classifying it at 11pm
If he is right I'll do something nice, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
5161. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
96L really looking good at the moment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Guess the NHC got somethin' good for us in the TWO...lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting SiestaCpl:


Part of the importance of 95L is that it is bringing more moisture into an otherwise dry atmosphere in the western gulf as this will sweeten the atmosphere for a possible 96L path.


Another worry...
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Quoting Patrap:


He's a Big Lurker seems



How can somebody that's 4'9 be big ?
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


No but sit in on the Conference calls all the time :)


ok so based on your smile and the email, lemme gueess

NHC either upgraded 95L to a TD or TS OR the percentage went up and they plan on classifying it at 11pm
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
Quoting Patrap:
95L now analyzed at 1008 mb Low

Floater - Visible Loop


Part of the importance of 95L is that it is bringing more moisture into an otherwise dry atmosphere in the western gulf as this will sweeten the atmosphere for a possible 96L path.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
5153. Patrap
Quoting Kristina40:
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.


He's a Big Lurker seems

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 424 Comments: 128284
Quoting Kristina40:
Cantore doing the Tropical update right now. Talking about 95L and how it could have been classified a TD.


based on the criteria, it could not

the main sticking points with it not being named is it was frontal the entire time up until about 3 hours ago, and 95L has yet to exhibit PERSISTENT convection
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7688
5151. oakland
Quoting aquak9:


you have wu-mail. Top of the screen, red "mail" icon.


Aqua, I've been out awhile. Would you tell me too, please?

Thanx
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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