A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2551. JRRP

edited
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
96L has lost its convection due to the diurnal minimum.



Structure improving.
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Quoting txsweetpea:
What happened? I was just gone for 3 hours and came back and found 4 areas out there(3yellow---1 orange) what is going on?


The Apocalypse has arrived, at least in terms of tropical weather that is
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SAB has 96L at 1.0.
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Is there a new best guess on 96L's Center of Circulation?
A new CoC position for 95L?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2544. JLPR2
Well I'm off till later tonight.

Later everyone! :)
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96L has lost its convection due to the diurnal minimum.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
What happened? I was just gone for 3 hours and came back and found 4 areas out there(3yellow---1 orange) what is going on?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
Quoting pottery:

Yeah! I saw that one time, on Dr. Kildare...
v tach is like a hurricane in the heart very distructive & often deadly
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Link

I'm not liking the looks of this today anyway.
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Quoting Levi32:


96L at the base level is a just product of low surface pressures over hot water. You get those two together in a moist environment and thunderstorms will go off due to rising air. We've had convection firing in the western Caribbean for several days now. This convection was enhanced by cold air aloft associated with a cut-off TUTT low. This upper low backed away to the southwest a couple of days ago and left the area well-ventilated. Once the upper ridge built in behind it, the heat buildup in the western Caribbean was enhanced and we started getting even more convection. The tropical wave now moving through the western Caribbean has also been enhancing thunderstorm activity.

So, this is just positive feedback in the atmosphere due to all the heat energy available. This situation is not unlike how Alex formed and is also a typhoon-like development. The southeasterly trade winds in the Caribbean resemble a moist monsoonal flow that is forcing air to pile up in the western Caribbean, and the natural reaction is for that air to rise and create thunderstorms. When you get enough of those, the surface pressure will lower and the air will start to spin, forming a circulation, which we are seeing the beginnings of now.

The tropical wave is just a visitor passing through, and although it can help by being a catalyst for surface low development, it did not spawn this disturbance.


Great explanation - I actually understood this. So basically this storm "brewed up" from the atmosphere. I would think that this is ominous for the season -- having this kind of activity so early in the game.
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Guadeloupe and Martinique Radar



Link
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2537. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:


Looks like Ventricular Tachycardia on an ECG, then getting to flat line LMAO!!

Yeah! I saw that one time, on Dr. Kildare...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
CIMSS hasn't updated their vorticity product in 10 hours.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I will disagree with the consensus on the blog, 96L vorticity is from the tropical wave that tracked across the caribbean as shown by the 850mb movie. No need to respond.
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2534. Levi32
0z satellite analysis from PSU shows the 925mb vorticity max has shifted under the mid-level circulation in the center of the cloud mass, which is exactly where we want it for development.

Still waiting for CIMSS maps to start working again so we can confirm.

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Quoting beell:
Seems broke. Down to 1006mb.



Looks like Ventricular Tachycardia on an ECG, then getting to flat line LMAO!!
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2532. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:

jejejee ook
entonces la onda vino a reforsar a 96L


Yep, esta ayudando a desestabilizar la atmosfera causando mas humedad y mas areas de lluvia... creo. XD
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2530. JLPR2
Quoting Relix:


It is =P. Must be because our island is so small compared to it haha.


Yep, or maybe its the dark colors they use for colder tops. :S
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2528. JRRP
Quoting JLPR2:


Antes de que la onda se relacionara ya existía 96L. Eso es lo que yo entendí. :)

jejejee ook
entonces la onda vino a reforzar a 96L
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Ominous looking.
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Link

Opening?
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I have the possible LLC of 96L forming at around 16.6N/83.2W, there is another spin further NE around 17.5/81.5, however I think that is not the true COC, I could be wrong though.
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2523. beell
Seems broke. Down to 1006mb.

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Quoting JLPR2:


I actually commented the post before you posted this LOL! XD
Lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
2521. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Read post 2510, it explains it very clearly.


I actually commented the post before you posted this LOL! XD
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2520. JLPR2
Quoting JRRP:
osea que el disturbio en caribe tiene varios dias en esa zona
pero cuando llego la onda tropical fue cuando clasificaron al INVEST 96L
eso fue lo que yo entendi


Antes de que la onda se relacionara ya existía 96L. Eso es lo que yo entendí. :)
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Quoting JLPR2:


But I saw a burst of convection emerge from there the night before, the wave came after that
Read post 2510, it explains it very clearly.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Is this the bed time story of the nhc & the 4 areas of interest, the first one says this water is too cold the next one says this water is too hot & the third one says this water is just right... and the forth one goes poof the end!
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2516. JLPR2
Quoting Levi32:


96L at the base level is a just product of low surface pressures over hot water. You get those two together in a moist environment and thunderstorms will go off. We've had convection firing in the western Caribbean for several days now. This convection was enhanced by cold air aloft associated with a cut-off TUTT low. This upper low backed away to the southwest a couple of days ago and left the area well-ventilated. Once the upper ridge built in behind it, the heat buildup in the western Caribbean was enhanced and we started getting even more convection. The tropical wave now moving through the western Caribbean has also been enhancing thunderstorm activity.

So, this is just positive feedback in the atmosphere due to all the heat energy available. This situation is not unlike how Alex formed and is also a typhoon-like development. The southeasterly trade winds in the Caribbean resemble a moist monsoonal flow that is forcing air to pile up in the western Caribbean, and the natural reaction is for that air to rise and create thunderstorms. When you get enough of those, the surface pressure will lower and the air will start to spin, forming a circulation, which we are seeing the beginnings of now.


there we go a nice explanation to clear our doubts :)
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2515. JRRP
osea que el disturbio en caribe tiene varios dias en esa zona
pero cuando llego la onda tropical fue cuando clasificaron al INVEST 96L por que incremento la conveccion y todo eso......
eso fue lo que yo entendi
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2483 P451 "Consolidation is occurring!"

That storm is so mean that the colorbar is shakin' (between 224 and 250)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2513. pottery
Greetings, Haloed Big-Fish.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
2512. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. There was already a disturbance in the central Caribbean, that is what 96L is. The tropical wave from south America came into play after 96L was designated an invest.


But I saw a burst of convection emerge from there the night before, the wave came after that
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Quoting StormW:


Could you please 'splain again to folks how 96L came to be?
oh goodie, I love bedtime stories :)
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2510. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Could you please 'splain again to folks how 96L came to be?


96L at the base level is a just product of low surface pressures over hot water. You get those two together in a moist environment and thunderstorms will go off due to rising air. We've had convection firing in the western Caribbean for several days now. This convection was enhanced by cold air aloft associated with a cut-off TUTT low. This upper low backed away to the southwest a couple of days ago and left the area well-ventilated. Once the upper ridge built in behind it, the heat buildup in the western Caribbean was enhanced and we started getting even more convection. The tropical wave now moving through the western Caribbean has also been enhancing thunderstorm activity.

So, this is just positive feedback in the atmosphere due to all the heat energy available. This situation is not unlike how Alex formed and is also a typhoon-like development. The southeasterly trade winds in the Caribbean resemble a moist monsoonal flow that is forcing air to pile up in the western Caribbean, and the natural reaction is for that air to rise and create thunderstorms. When you get enough of those, the surface pressure will lower and the air will start to spin, forming a circulation, which we are seeing the beginnings of now.

The tropical wave is just a visitor passing through, and although it can help by being a catalyst for surface low development, it did not spawn this disturbance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JLPR2:


yeah, 96L seemed to emerge from South America from where the perma Colombia Low is
No. There was already a disturbance in the central Caribbean, that is what 96L is. The tropical wave from south America came into play after 96L was designated an invest.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
I blame it on Zuse
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De ja Vue, Alex part duex.




AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2506. pottery
Quoting stormpetrol:

Please tell me that's not headed toward the area 96L is in , I'm starting to feel a little sick to be honest.

Steering patterns (current ones) dont look promising.
Sorry.
But the system over you should have moved out by then, if it pans out.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24311
2504. Relix
Quoting JLPR2:
What is it with this pictures that makes everything look intimidating LOL!



It is =P. Must be because our island is so small compared to it haha.
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Should the 96L be in the GOM sometime tomorrow?
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2502. JLPR2
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Oh I understand that very clearly. I think we can all agree that the tropical wave only was added later to the equation but 96L did not form out of a tropical wave.


yeah, 96L seemed to emerge from South America from where the perma Colombia Low is
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Hi Storm - If that 1006mb pressure from 42056 is valid then we might have a center forming somewhere near the buoy based on it's light winds so far.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.