A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2601. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.


Quoting StormW:


Yes.


They don't issue models until they're labled invests, right?
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Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.


ok.....just curious. Thanks.
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2598. Patrap
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
2597. pottery
Quoting TexasHurricane:
Are these thyphoon type storms worse than Hurricanes are they just form different than Hurricanes?

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24373
2596. Dakster
Quoting AussieStorm:

managed to get 4hrs, wont say it was rest-full sleep, just sleep. thanks for your concern.


I've been through the same thing a few times now. The first few days aren't that great and sleep is something that doesn't come easily. Although time may not "heal" all wounds, it at least dulls the pain.
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Kman: Good evening, how is it outside down your side tonight?
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Quoting pottery:

I would stay away from bed, if I was you.
Look what you did!

Sorry, i tried to stay awake as much as i could, but when my brain stops functioning and my body is frozen, a nice warm bed was the place to be.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
that buoy might be broke..however, with a large pressure drop..it always takes 6-12 hours for the winds to catch up to it.i'm also looking for the reason why cmc and nogaps takes soontobe bonnie more north. there is a weakness in there somewhere possibly. might be from 95l?
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2560 AussieStorm "What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.
"

AHA! So those things popped up cuz you were too busy sleepin' to knock 'em down like you were s'poseta.
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2589. brla61
Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

oh my, i've been mia for a min. i come back to this. i thought it was some type of sick joke..lol. amazing, we are in for a ride! Happy 4th of july everyone!
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Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


How do you get to TAFB? I can get to SAB and ADT but that one's new to me. :)
ATCF - FIX

Click on where it says "fal962010.dat" and then you'll see the numbers. Here's the thing, make sure to scroll to your right because that is where the info is.

*Obviously click on the corresponding system, but in this case I just pointed out 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2587. Dakster
Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from Bastardi:

There is a tropical wave entering the caribbean, two frontal waves, one in the central gulf that should go into Louisiana tomorrow, the other off Florida, and what may anther western gulf development.. the area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean. Like Alex, this is not a tropical wave though of course TPC says it is. If it is a wave moving west at 15-20, how is it we have looking at this budding area in the same place for 3 days? Because its not a wave, its gradually lowering pressures and increasing upward motion caused by the pattern and the development of abnormally low pressures, if only by a millibar or two, over abnormally warm water. TPC should send some of their people out the southwest Pacific to watch typhoons develop.


Isn't Bastardi speaking in Ft. Meyer's next week? (Look out..) Interesting quote too.
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2586. Patrap
Quoting hercj:

Ok here we go again. 960 mb and TS force winds. This is REALLY getting interesting.


Buckle in, folks..

Boogity,Boogity,boogity.

Lets go tropical Blogging..Boyz
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
Quoting Dakster:
Hey Aussie... Hope you had a good night's sleep.

managed to get 4hrs, wont say it was rest-full sleep, just sleep. thanks for your concern.
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2584. Levi32
Quoting StormW:


Excerpt from Bastardi:

There is a tropical wave entering the caribbean, two frontal waves, one in the central gulf that should go into Louisiana tomorrow, the other off Florida, and what may anther western gulf development.. the area of disturbed weather over the western Caribbean. Like Alex, this is not a tropical wave though of course TPC says it is. If it is a wave moving west at 15-20, how is it we have looking at this budding area in the same place for 3 days? Because its not a wave, its gradually lowering pressures and increasing upward motion caused by the pattern and the development of abnormally low pressures, if only by a millibar or two, over abnormally warm water. TPC should send some of their people out the southwest Pacific to watch typhoons develop.


Totally agree.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
TAFB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007042345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1660N, 8270W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, HC, VI, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.5 PAT=


How do you get to TAFB? I can get to SAB and ADT but that one's new to me. :)
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2582. Patrap
I think maybe JB is tnat wunder blogger here called,

...well,

..nevermind
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
2581. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yes.

Ok here we go again. 960 mb and TS force winds. This is REALLY getting interesting.
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting JRRP:

when is the next update ?


It's supposed to update every 3 hours. It's broken tho.
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Quoting WindynEYW:
must have been all that vegemite it ate

vegemite... yuck, feeding them that must of upset them.
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2577. Patrap
..Tears,tears at the water's edge..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128630
2576. Dakster
Uh Ohhh. Here comes the Jimmy Buffet parodies.
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Are these thyphoon type storms worse than Hurricanes are they just form different than Hurricanes?
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
.
TAFB at 1.5.

AL, 96, 201007042345, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1660N, 8270W, , 3, 25, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , TAFB, HC, VI, 5, 1515 /////, , , GOES13, CSC, T, DT = 1.5 BASED ON 0.3 BANDING. NLINEMET= 1.5 PAT=
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
I really hope that nothing comes into the Gulf this week. We are having our high school reunion Fri & Sat...and we are planning a sunset cruise along the coast for Friday night.
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Good evening

Well, the area over the Windwards has now been flagged by the NHC but 96L seems to be engaged in Plan B. Squally weather has set in here again after a break this afternoon.

Sometimes these systems just sit over the NW Caribbean until they organize. Motion in any particular direction is not a given until then.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15842
2571. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.

I would stay away from bed, if I was you.
Look what you did!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24373
2570. Dakster
Hey Aussie... Hope you had a good night's sleep.
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Quoting StormW:


Ya remember that active 2010 season I told ya about?


Uh Yea....but this is kind of scary.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


Someone must have fed it after midnight and it multiplied lol
must have been all that vegemite it ate
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Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I will disagree with the consensus on the blog, 96L vorticity is from the tropical wave that tracked across the caribbean as shown by the 850mb movie. No need to respond.


100% @gree
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Quoting pottery:

Steering patterns (current ones) dont look promising.
Sorry.
But the system over you should have moved out by then, if it pans out.
We had very gusty winds & squalls here in Grand Cayman today/in my estimation probably peaked mid to high tropical storm force, for short durations.Torrential rain this hour too.
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Quoting AussieStorm:

What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.


Someone must have fed it after midnight and it multiplied lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2562. pottery
Quoting StormW:


Ya remember that active 2010 season I told ya about?

HA!!
Its July 4th, and not a Hurricane as yet!

(kidding you, Storm...)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24373
2561. JRRP
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


That's old though.. Sadly. 15Z, or from 11AM EDT

when is the next update ?
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What the.....
I went to bed and there was 2 yellow circles,,, now there is 3 yellow and 1 orange.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2559. Levi32
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I will disagree with the consensus on the blog, 96L vorticity is from the tropical wave that tracked across the caribbean as shown by the 850mb movie. No need to respond.


This tells a different story. While the tropical wave naturally enhanced low-level vorticity as it passed through the area, you can clearly see that the heat buildup over the past several days has been generating its own low-level vorticity field for some time now, before the wave arrived. The wave is traveling on its way at a fast clip, and temporarily dragged the highest vorticity westward with it, but you will see this re-situate under 96L's cloud mass, which the last image in the loop above shows. The tropical wave is moving on. 96L is self-sustaining and was not spawned by the wave.
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2558. hercj
Quoting StormW:


A Cutter is any of our vessels over 65 ft in length...I was stationed on a 327ft, 210ft, and a 270ft.

Senior, is this another typhoon event in the Caribbean like Alex was?
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting JRRP:


That's old though.. Sadly. 15Z, or from 11AM EDT
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Quoting AllStar17:


Structure improving.
Overall yes. 96L will likely look very good in the morning after the diurnal maximum.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
.
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2553. pottery
Quoting blsealevel:
Link

I'm not liking the looks of this today anyway.

"Ominising" comes to mind.
The word was coined by a blogger here a couple years ago, cant remember who. Good word!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24373
04/2345 UTC 16.9N 82.7W T1.0/1.0 96L

Still no word from ADT.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2551. JRRP

edited
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.