A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2651. pottery
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa.

I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form.

True. Good points.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24237
Quoting bwi:
1005.2 at the buoy. Not spurious, perhaps.
No way. Not believing that ob....
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2649. Levi32
Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.


Typhoons and hurricanes are usually formed from different patterns, although how they develop and intensify is exactly the same. The pattern that spawns them, however, is different.
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Pat, I can see I am gonna have to make a trip to my local Wal-Mart for beer, coffee, and doritos. Gonna be a long week.
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2646. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Dakster:
KOTG - The windward islands "disturbance" seems to be forming the same way Alex and 96L are...


as all will dev the same
we really have
wpac type sst's and other factors
which more than likly will govern
most systems this season
till sst's begin the downward turn
and we wring out some water vapour from the atomsphere
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Quoting kmanislander:


Help, I've fallen and I can't get up !
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
BTW, 1005mb is low enough to produce winds of 30-35kts based on 1013mb from 42057.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 73
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This is one crazy lil' buoy.



Help, I've fallen and I can't get up !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
2642. Patrap
96L revving the engine in the Se Quad corner.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2641. pottery
Quoting brla61:

Thanks, I was wondering about that, also. How are you this evening?

Excellent! And you?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24237
This is one crazy lil' buoy.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21122
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
According to the TWO on 96L:

"NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS."

Looks like we may have Tropical Storm Bonnie right when a closed surface circulation develops.


We had TS force winds here around 2 today gusting to as much as 49 mph over a one hour period. Without a closed surface low, no TD or TS.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
2636. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
You couldn't tell the saracastic tone I had, I take it...LOL


LOl..I did.

But Im sure dem masse's didnt
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Patrap:


That solution is decreasing each run today
You couldn't tell the saracastic tone I had, I take it...LOL
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2633. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/96/L
MARK
16.1N/80.8W
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2632. Patrap
96L 00Z Model Plots
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
No I don't think I do. Already here in Texas too much rain, only ones have a field day are the mosquitos. I think this year we have to take one day at a time and just do the best we can.
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According to the TWO on 96L:

"NEARBY
SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
BRIEFLY OCCURRED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS."

Looks like we may have Tropical Storm Bonnie right when a closed surface circulation develops.
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2629. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Will it take that long to get to the MX/TX border Pat?


That solution is decreasing each run today
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
2628. Mikla
95L & 96L Models... 96L models shifted to the East...
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42056 at 9:50PM EDT 1005mb still falling rapidly but winds continue only 5-8Kts only.

42057 shows pressure 1013mb and rising
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 73
2626. bwi
1005.2 at the buoy. Not spurious, perhaps.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1382
2625. Dakster
KOTG - The windward islands "disturbance" seems to be forming the same way Alex and 96L are...
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Quoting Patrap:
96L may be impacting in 72-80 in my estimate at the fwd speed of the envelope.

which will change up and down as it develops
Will it take that long to get to the MX/TX border Pat?
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2623. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting Patrap:
96L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Had some nice midlevel rotation earlier today... I think we'll see things in the lower level coalesce more tomorrow.
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2620. SLU
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring?


lol .. maybe the atlantic's 1st supercane
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Looks like 95L is coming in to shore. Pressure drops all along the coast.
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2618. Patrap
96L may be impacting in 72-80 in my estimate at the fwd speed of the envelope.

which will change up and down as it develops
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
INV/XX/XL
MARK
16.1N/59.8W


Thats looking interesting....
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2616. Dakster
WOW. Patrap... Nice Radar.
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2614. brla61
Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.

Thanks, I was wondering about that, also. How are you this evening?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2613. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
INV/XX/XL
MARK
16.1N/59.8W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2612. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807
Quoting pottery:

Typhoon and Hurricane is just a name, either in the Pacific (Typhoon) or Atlantic (hurricane).
They are the same thing, and form from the same conditions.
The more powerful they are, the more dangerous they are.
No matter what the name is.
Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa.

I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form.
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FWIW, the 18z regional Canadian model shows 96L shooting up toward Mobile Bay in 48 hours:

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
ATCF - FIX

Click on where it says "fal962010.dat" and then you'll see the numbers. Here's the thing, make sure to scroll to your right because that is where the info is.

*Obviously click on the corresponding system, but in this case I just pointed out 96L.


Thanks! And yeah I kinda figured what you wrote with the star lol.
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Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring?
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2607. Hhunter
Quoting kmanislander:
Good evening

Well, the area over the Windwards has now been flagged by the NHC but 96L seems to be engaged in Plan B. Squally weather has set in here again after a break this afternoon.

Sometimes these systems just sit over the NW Caribbean until they organize. Motion in any particular direction is not a given until then.


yep, kind of like how systems organize in the pacific
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Quoting superpete:
Kman: Good evening, how is it outside down your side tonight?


Hi Pete,

It's been quite an interesting day. Early afternoon we had winds sustained around 35 to 38 mph with gusts to 43 mph.

Right now its better but not nice. Winds gusting between 14 and 25 mph and variable out of the SE to S. Raining

Not a good night to walk the dog ( fortunately I don't have one )
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15807
2605. pottery
Quoting P451:


Would four days of imagery help them?

;-)





Link to 2nd uploaded file
if bandwidth dies on posted image.


Very Nice. Thanks for that.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24237
2604. pottery
Quoting Dakster:


I've been through the same thing a few times now. The first few days aren't that great and sleep is something that doesn't come easily. Although time may not "heal" all wounds, it at least dulls the pain.

True.
Take time, Aussie.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24237
2603. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


Buckle in, folks..

Boogity,Boogity,boogity.

Lets go tropical Blogging..Boyz

I love DW Pat.
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Be back in a couple of hours....wonder how much will change by then. :)
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2601. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127807

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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