A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2701. viman
Good evening all, seems Like we may run out of floaters this year. Lol -- What would the AOI east of the Leeward Islands be, Invest 97L or 98L? Which came first the AOI east of SFla or the one east of the Islands and would that determine how it gets classified? TIA
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment.
Sry, just hit me that it would cause high pressure...figured I'd say as much. No biggie, of course.

Yeah, something's not right. Though, I'm pretty sure these major moored buoys have 2 barometers. I know they have 2 anemometers. Been to the workshop they are built in and deployed from, once.

(Where's that guy that had an internship at NDBC? He might know)
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2699. brla61
Quoting pottery:

Excellent! And you?

I'm great!. Just trying to learn here. don't know much about weather but for some reason i'm addicted. lurking every week since Gustave hit.
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey 09 do you think will be up too the N storm by the end of the july if we see thing rely pick up
No. Lol. From what I'm currently seeing and thinking, (call me crazy, lol) I believe we will see 5 named storms in the month of July.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2697. aquak9
ladobelady‚ô•
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25740
On this date in 2005 we were following Tropical Depression 4, which would later become Tropical Storm Dennis the next day. Dennis would become the strongest July hurricane only to have that record broken just a week later by Emily.
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2695. hercj
Quoting StormW:
Good night all! Busy day tomorrow.

Night Senior.
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2612 Patrap "[Radar Loop of 95L]"

So the CoC is back over land?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
2693. BDAwx
how about that.
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Quoting aquak9:
goodness. I come back and it's four circles.

shotgun approach, gordy. :)


Shhhh Aquak that is just the NHC having some fun with their crayons! :)
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2691. aquak9
can't forget the zombie.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25740
um Plywood, JFV or whatever your name is

96L is not getting sheared and for anyone who wondered why you should be banned for good, your last post is an example

your condescending nature towards other is not welcome here
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2688. Asta
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Usually on July 4th there is nothing to watch in the tropics. The tropics don't really start until middle of August and peak in September. If early July is as active as it is now what will August and September bring?

Snow!- just kidding.. but nothing would surprise me...
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hey 09 do you think will be up too the N storm by the end of the july if we see thing rely pick up
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
Quoting StormW:


You don't really want to know, do you?


No I'm southern and live on the coast of LA so I'm happily doing my Scarlett O'Hara thing and will think about it tomorrow. I love swimming down the bayou of denial...oil and all.
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2685. bwi
Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Not believing that ob....


Maybe the buoy tipped over! Wind readings died same hour pressure plummeted. We'll know soon enough. Any ship obs?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1381
2684. aquak9
goodness. I come back and it's four circles.

shotgun approach, gordy. :)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 163 Comments: 25740
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute.

To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up!

The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer.

Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid exercising or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day.

Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
Quoting gordydunnot:
Just got home from fireworks, what's up with the NHC map looks like their using illegal fireworks or is that just a shot gun approach.
Hadn't thought of that. Maybe the NHC needs to use red, white, and blue on their maps when their just playing around.
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2679. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Patrap:
What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day.
i didn't think anyone notice but you been here a bit so its expected
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 169 Comments: 53296
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Crazy huh? Well they all have a good chance of becoming a TS.


ture
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
It fell so quick, that to me usually indicates some kind of an error... either that or 96L is really strengthening quick.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Would be anomalously high pressure in that scenario...


Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting weathersp:


I don't know about getting to D before the 10th LOL but out of all of the wave's right now, this one is got the most going for it... which is time.. and albit low shear.
I think all 3 systems that I pointed out have a good chance of becoming a TS. Weather456 can explain clearly why I believe that.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Just got home from fireworks, what's up with the NHC map looks like their using illegal fireworks or is that just a shot gun approach.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3112
2673. Patrap
What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
2671. Mikla
Buoy and METAR info...
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle.



I don't know about getting to D before the 10th LOL but out of all of the wave's right now, this one is got the most going for it... which is time.. and albit low shear.
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Quoting kmanislander:


I agree. Maybe the barometer fell in the water or something. Nothing in any of the surface graphics supports that.
Would be anomalously high pressure in that scenario...
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At least not too many crows will perish Pat. It is just the 2 of us that seem to have this agreement.
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2667. Dakster
I thought you were mad at me...

Welp. Time for me to go to bed. Hopefully I don't wake up to any "surprises" or more circles!

Good night all.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



hold on there slow down its not even the end of july yet
Crazy huh? Well they all have a good chance of becoming a TS.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting Patrap:


Id get that done in the am ASAP.

Cuz when this gets a name and the networks,which runs about 18 hours behind us here will have the a run on the stores somewhere.


And that's why i read this blog to get that 18 hour head start
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2664. Patrap
Increase in the showers in Mississippi Sound as the Atmosphere moistens up a tad tonight.



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
Quoting P451:


Oops!


Green one on the image....


First impression is that it is most certainly an error. Yet, the QC algorithms let it through...
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00:00 UTC shows the highest 925mb vorticity consolidating around the strongest convection.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting BahaHurican:
is that Freak91 in the blog??? Good 2 seeya, kid!
Hey Baha
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle.




hold on there slow down its not even the end of july yet
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 114750
2659. Patrap
Quoting Dakster:
WOW. Patrap... Nice Radar.


I c-yas.

Just eating and blogging.

COol whip and a brownie
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
is that Freak91 in the blog??? Good 2 seeya, kid!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
No way. Not believing that ob....


I agree. Maybe the barometer fell in the water or something. Nothing in any of the surface graphics supports that.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
2656. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, I can see I am gonna have to make a trip to my local Wal-Mart for beer, coffee, and doritos. Gonna be a long week.


Id get that done in the am ASAP.

Cuz when this gets a name and the networks,which runs about 18 hours behind us here will have the a run on the stores somewhere.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 421 Comments: 127592
2655. Dakster
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


as all will dev the same
we really have
wpac type sst's and other factors
which more than likly will govern
most systems this season
till sst's begin the downward turn
and we wring out some water vapour from the atomsphere


Yep... Nice poem.

I see Patrap is still ignoring me...
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This wave seems to be consolidating further north and moving towards the WNW. I wouldn't be surprised to see 96L become Bonnie, the trough split over the Bahamas become Colin, and this area become Danielle.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2651. pottery
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
Yeah, I'll agree that they are virtually the same thing, but Pacific Typhoons generally form from a large area of unorganized convection while Atlantic storms are spawned mostly by thunderstorm complexes that move off of Africa.

I think this year people are comparing the systems we've seen in the Atl so far to the way in which pacific typhoons form.

True. Good points.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24055

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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