A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2751. Tazmanian
2:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aquak9:


Whoa, Taz! We're only up to 96L right now. I'm stuck here like a thumb surrounded by hot water.

One at a time!! :)


hey its 2010
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
2750. Patrap
2:41 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2749. Orcasystems
2:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.

Makes me nervous.


You gonna get wet Zoo... no two ways about it.
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2748. MiamiHurricanes09
2:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.

Makes me nervous.
The only area unlikely to develop is 95L due to its proximity to land, massive dry air intrusion, high shear, and the fact that it is non-tropical and attached to a frontal boundary. All the other 3 areas currently being circled by the NHC, I think, all have a good chance of becoming a tropical storm.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2747. kmanislander
2:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...


Crazy reading for sure. Don't know what to make of it other than equipment malfunction. The alternative is that 96L is faking us out LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15861
2746. aquak9
2:40 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:


where would 98L be going


Whoa, Taz! We're only up to 96L right now. I'm stuck here like a thumb surrounded by hot water.

One at a time!! :)
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26268
2745. hunkerdown
2:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...
+1
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2515
2744. bohonkweatherman
2:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
No one was doing that, just a little Tropical Humor. The High Pressure in the Northeast along with the Heat up there I think is a playing factor into what is going on in the tropics, so to me they are kind of connected?
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
2743. Patrap
2:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2741. Tazmanian
2:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol you're killing me. Well steering would take it towards the Bahamas and then recurve it towards the Atlantic thereafter.



ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
2740. brla61
2:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Please say it aint so..Pat!
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
2739. Orcasystems
2:39 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
2714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010


Poor snookums :(
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
2738. Hurricanes101
2:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting zoomiami:
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.


welcome to 2010 lol

95L is running out of time, I dont see us getting a name out of all 3 systems of the other systems, but I do see us getting 2

Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
2737. Tazmanian
2:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
09 i think 96L i now re forming its low under the deepets t-storms
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
2736. MiamiHurricanes09
2:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:


where would 98L be going
Lol you're killing me. Well steering would take it towards the Bahamas and then recurve it towards the Atlantic thereafter.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2735. zoomiami
2:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
I haven't heard anyone make the case that these areas would be unable to develop.

Makes me nervous.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
2734. gordydunnot
2:38 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
That's my strong advice stay home in the AC if you must imbibe. And do not operate heavy machinery that includes cars.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
2733. btwntx08
2:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting cajunroach:
regional 18z cmc- mobile bay in 48 hrsLink

too poleward and way way too fast
Member Since: July 13, 2008 Posts: 6 Comments: 10796
2732. Asta
2:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute.

To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up!

The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer.

Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid mercerizing or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day of the day.

Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill.

Good advice! and read the labels..
Make sure there is no caffeine, licorice root, or chromium picolinate.. I think that they can also make your heart race... Check with your Doctor if you have heart issues..
The key is:
Hydration, hydration, hydration!
and check on elderly people that you know...
and make sure that your pets have extra water and a cool place to be..

Member Since: July 4, 2008 Posts: 30 Comments: 1024
2731. Patrap
2:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Watcha think atmo..?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2730. Tazmanian
2:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Later tonight or this morning with 98L following shortly after.


where would 98L be going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
2729. Mikla
2:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
It's on my weather website.
Quoting kputerman26:


How do you get that on Google Earth?!??
Member Since: October 13, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 303
2728. beell
2:37 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 144 Comments: 16876
2727. Hurricanes101
2:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Area east of the Bahamas has potential too, or else the NHC would have never put a yellow circle on it
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
2726. Patrap
2:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
96l Could be the Real Oil-Zilla
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2725. MiamiHurricanes09
2:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
so when could we see 97L 09?
Later tonight or this morning with 98L following shortly after.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2724. atmoaggie
2:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...
ROFL.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
2723. zoomiami
2:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...


Too funny Pottery --- as long as it isn't near my house.
Member Since: August 13, 2007 Posts: 10 Comments: 4158
2722. kputerman26
2:36 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Mikla:
Buoy and METAR info...


and this also...
2721. MiamiHurricanes09
2:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
Maybe a rogue wave swamped it? Still, would have high pressure if in the water...I think.
Yes pressure would go up if underwater (a little something I learned from a met on channel 7 down here in Miami).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2720. msgambler
2:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream
Evening Aqua, Your making me hungry. Please stop talking about food....LOL
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
2719. MrstormX
2:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good night StormW, I don't care what the rest of the bloggers think, you are alright in my book. :)


Was someone dissing Storm? Thats no good, he is one of the best bloggers on here.
Member Since: May 27, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 4438
2717. Hurricanes101
2:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I believe he was referring to the tropical wave east of the Antilles.


oh right the one with the anticyclone over it lol

either way
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
2716. Tazmanian
2:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
so when could we see 97L 09?
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
2715. cajunroach
2:35 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
regional 18z cmc- mobile bay in 48 hrsLink
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 21
2714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Bordonaro:
Please excuse the off-topic post for a minute.

To all the WU folks along the Boston, NYC, Philly down to DC. Heads up!

The heat wave you will experience this week is very similar to the TX heatwaves we have every summer.

Drink plenty of non-alcoholic, non- caffeinated beverages, like water & Gatorade. Wear light-weight, light-colored clothing. Avoid mercerizing or doing any strenuous activities during the heat of the day of the day.

Please stay in the AC as much as possible. Do NOT risk heat exhaustion or heat stroke, as they can come on quickly & kill.
hey bo we are under the heat as well here

WOCN11 CWTO 050127
Humidex advisory
Issued by Environment Canada Ontario region. 9:27 PM EDT Sunday
4 July 2010.

Humidex advisory issued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Brockville - Leeds and Grenville
City of Ottawa
Gatineau
Prescott and Russell
Cornwall - Morrisburg
Smiths Falls - Lanark - Sharbot Lake
Renfrew - Pembroke - Barry's Bay.

..Hot, hazy and humid conditions on tap this week..

A typical hot weather pattern for Southern Ontario is setting up with
an area of high pressure Southeast of the Great Lakes.
Southwest winds along the northern edge of this high are transporting
hot temperatures and increasing humidity levels into the area.

Humidex values reached into the mid to high thirties today and are
expected to climb to 40 or more on Monday. The heat and humidity
will likely remain for 3 or 4 days until a cold front provides some
relief later this week.

Overnight temperatures will bottom out in the low twenties and will
be accompanied by uncomfortable humidity levels over the next several
days. So, there will be little in the way of night-time relief
during this spell of hot, hazy and humid weather.

This is an advisory that high humidex values are expected in these
Regions. Monitor weather conditions..Listen for updated statements.

END/OSPC


WLCN11 CWTO 041916
Smog advisory
Updated jointly by Environment Canada and the Ontario Ministry of
Environment at 3:16 PM EDT Sunday 4 July 2010.

Smog advisory continued for..
City of Toronto
Windsor - Essex - Chatham-Kent
Sarnia - Lambton
Elgin
London - Middlesex
Simcoe - Delhi - Norfolk
Dunnville - Caledonia - Haldimand
Oxford - Brant
Niagara
City of Hamilton
Halton - Peel
York - Durham
Huron - Perth
Waterloo - Wellington
Dufferin - Innisfil
Grey - Bruce
Barrie - Orillia - Midland
Belleville - Quinte - Northumberland
Kingston - Prince Edward
Peterborough - Kawartha Lakes
Stirling - Tweed - South Frontenac
Bancroft - Bon Echo Park
Parry Sound - Muskoka
Haliburton.

Today will be a day of elevated air pollution. Help spare the air by
taking public transit or by car pooling. The air quality index is
Expected to exceed the poor threshold of 50..Due to ground level
ozone/fine particulate matter/ozone and fine particulate matter.

The remainder of today will continue sunny and hot with light winds
due to a stagnant weather pattern. Pollutants from us and Ontario
sources will react with sunlight to form photochemical smog and
accumulate further over today's levels.

Many of our leisure activities contribute to smog formation.
Help spare the air by reducing car trips..Avoiding the use of oil
Based paints..Solvents..And gas powered engines such as lawn mowers
and chain saws.

During the episode individuals may experience eye irritation.
Heavy outdoor exercise may cause respiratory symptoms such as
coughing or shortness of breath. People with heart or lung disease
including asthma may experience a worsening of their condition.

For further information contact Kate Jordan at the Ontario Ministry
of Environment 416-314-6666.

END/OSPC

Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 175 Comments: 54847
2713. atmoaggie
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting bwi:


Maybe the buoy tipped over! Wind readings died same hour pressure plummeted. We'll know soon enough. Any ship obs?
Maybe a rogue wave swamped it? Still, would have high pressure if in the water...I think.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12463
2712. Patrap
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting aquak9:
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream


Mmmm...ice cream.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2711. kputerman26
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Mikla:
95L & 96L Models... 96L models shifted to the East...


How do you get that on Google Earth?!??
2710. Hurricanes101
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
96L is in a favorable environment, structure is improving

as was said earlier, the warming of the cloud tops is due to diurnal impacts, since 96L does not yet have a surface low it cannot be self-sufficient

I do feel we should see 97L out of the area east of the Islands by tomorrow morning the latest and we could see 98L out of the area by the Bahamas as well.
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7872
2709. HurricaneSwirl
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
On this date in 2005 while we were also following newly designated TD4 we were also following TD3 as it did not get named before it hit the Yucatan and it emerged into the GOM on this day 5 years ago to become Tropical Storm Cindy and hit east LA as a TS, but was upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis.
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
2708. bohonkweatherman
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Good night StormW, I don't care what the rest of the bloggers think, you are alright in my book. :)
Member Since: July 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1348
2707. pottery
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


Just kidding. Have to be careful what I say here LOL. That said, it does appear to be a malfunction of the equipment.

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24650
2706. Patrap
2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2705. Tazmanian
2:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
No. Lol. From what I'm currently seeing and thinking, (call me crazy, lol) I believe we will see 5 named storms in the month of July.


ok
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115357
2703. aquak9
2:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 171 Comments: 26268
2702. MiamiHurricanes09
2:33 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Quoting Hurricanes101:
um Plywood, JFV or whatever your name is

96L is not getting sheared and for anyone who wondered why you should be banned for good, your last post is an example

your condescending nature towards other is not welcome here
I believe he was referring to the tropical wave east of the Antilles.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2701. viman
2:32 AM GMT on July 05, 2010
Good evening all, seems Like we may run out of floaters this year. Lol -- What would the AOI east of the Leeward Islands be, Invest 97L or 98L? Which came first the AOI east of SFla or the one east of the Islands and would that determine how it gets classified? TIA
Member Since: August 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 382

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.