A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Patrap:
What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day.

Don't want a replay of Cindy.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Here are the web cams at the George Town port. No trouble seeing the rain LOL
LOL, well that just made everything a lot easier.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting pottery:

LOL
But seriously, how to explain your rising pressures?


I can only assume that the rain is unrelated to the core of 96L which has apparently moved out of this area, hence rising surface pressures.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting Orcasystems:


You gonna get wet Zoo... no two ways about it.


You really like it when those green spots are over my head don't you?
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2797. Patrap
Station GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )

5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.9 kts

5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 14.0 kts

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.92 in

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 82.4 °F

5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.9 °

5-day graph plot
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I actually have a webcam located at the east end of Grand Cayman. Here's the thing though, it's nighttime so you can't see a thing. Lol.

Here's the link if anyone is interested: Link


Here are the web cams at the George Town port. No trouble seeing the rain LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Buoy 42056 -

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 5.8 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 7.8 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 5.6 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): SE ( 125 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.68 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.16 in ( Falling Rapidly )

Is it possible folks that pressures are actually falling this much? The other buoys in the area, the few that are there, have pressures near 29.80" or higher~~~
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2794. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Grothar:
your getting better at it but now ur late
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
2793. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Alice through the looking glass stuff !

LOL
But seriously, how to explain your rising pressures?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24925
wow.
goodnight.
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2791. Patrap
96L 00Z Model Run Plots
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
zoomiami...where are you located
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Quoting kmanislander:


You should see outside here now. Crazy weather.
I actually have a webcam located at the east end of Grand Cayman. Here's the thing though, it's nighttime so you can't see a thing. Lol.

Here's the link if anyone is interested: Link
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2788. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I didn't know Voldemort lived in Florida..


Don't say that name!! *clasps hands over ears*
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Quoting pottery:

Curiouser and curiouser !!
But then, it's 2010.
Weirdness rules ??


Alice through the looking glass stuff !
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
2785. Patrap
Current Conditions

NOS_NWLON Pilots Sta E, SW Pass, LA, Pilottown, Louisiana (PWS)
Updated: 34 min 20 sec ago
Temperature: 84 °F
Wind: 17 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 20.0 mph
Pressure: 29.93 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 81 °F
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Pollen: .50 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Few 1900 ft
Scattered Clouds 2700 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 0 ft
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
2784. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:
Even though it is pouring outside the pressure is 1015 mb and rising rapidly.

Curiouser and curiouser !!
But then, it's 2010.
Weirdness rules ??
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24925
Quoting MrstormX:


Was someone dissing Storm? Thats no good, he is one of the best bloggers on here.
i know. storm, patrap,xcool,oz,atmo,levi,keeper, they been around for a while and have always given good advice, good opinion and explanation. i have been here for a while, and can still only ask question. they have others on here who are very good too. these are just the ones i see every year. i look forward to seeing their opinions on the tropics. i don't remember the bickering being so bad before.:)
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Just got the Website Invest Graphics put in if anyone needs to view as many of you do! Geesh i don't like this much work.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
makes more sense, they wouldn't want to blow their cover to the public.
True, lol.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The world most be exploding. Pressures sinking underwater, pressures rising under nasty rain. :)


You should see outside here now. Crazy weather.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
From the NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
I said earlier there is something I don't like about 96l I think she is the devil women with evil on her mind.
Member Since: August 18, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3113
bwi "Maybe the buoy tipped over! Wind readings died same hour pressure plummeted."

MesoscaleConvectiveVortex?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting Patrap:



i say 95L is gone lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
Quoting kmanislander:
Even though it is pouring outside the pressure is 1015 mb and rising rapidly.
The world most be exploding. Pressures sinking underwater, pressures rising under nasty rain. :)
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2773. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! Well they didn't say it on TV, I was told by Phil Ferro when I went to the station.
makes more sense, they wouldn't want to blow their cover to the public.
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2770. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
Sry, just hit me that it would cause high pressure...figured I'd say as much. No biggie, of course.

Yeah, something's not right. Though, I'm pretty sure these major moored buoys have 2 barometers. I know they have 2 anemometers. Been to the workshop they are built in and deployed from, once.

(Where's that guy that had an internship at NDBC? He might know)


yes, the do. They are currently installing more on the drifters, as well.
They are still in the process of attaching as many to the Barometer ports, where they can upload to different agencies. You know the rest atmo.....
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Even though it is pouring outside the pressure is 1015 mb and rising rapidly.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting hunkerdown:
shocking, SVN said something informative...they must have been misreading something :)
LOL! Well they didn't say it on TV, I was told by Phil Ferro when I went to the station.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2767. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Vertically Integrated Liquid Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
2766. brla61
Quoting Patrap:


Keep the NOAA Radio in ALERT mode tonight as this is going to ramp up in Intensity maybe..
T-storm wise,..like this morning
Quoting Patrap:


Keep the NOAA Radio in ALERT mode tonight as this is going to ramp up in Intensity maybe..
T-storm wise,..like this morning

Thanks for the heads up!
Member Since: June 21, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 61
Quoting pottery:

LOL!
More likely the bouy was picked-up by an updraft and lifted to 8000 feet.
Seems to be still up there, too.
And hey, it could land in Florida, on you-know-who...


I didn't know Voldemort lived in Florida..
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2764. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Crazy reading for sure. Don't know what to make of it other than equipment malfunction. The alternative is that 96L is faking us out LOL

A freak wave is a possibility, enough to damage the equipment. But I guess these things are designed for that ......
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24925
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes pressure would go up if underwater (a little something I learned from a met on channel 7 down here in Miami).
shocking, SVN said something informative...they must have been misreading something :)
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Quoting hunkerdown:
ribs and ice cream you say...you might want to wash it down with this.
That is probably the nastiest thing ever to be created.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2761. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Composite Reflectivity Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
Quoting Asta:

Good advice! and read the labels..
Make sure there is no caffeine, licorice root, or chromium picolinate.. I think that they can also make your heart race... Check with your Doctor is you ahve heart issues..
The key is:
Hydration, hydration, hydration!
and check on elderly people that you know...
they get hit harder..


Thanks, I pray & hope the folks in the NE, New England & S Ontario stay safe.

I live in N TX. We normally have 95-100F temps for about 60 days straight. We are used to the heat. It takes MANY years to acclimate to the heat. The mets in TX have a "running joke" that its not hot till it hits 100F.

STAY SAFE.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
2759. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Orcasystems:
2714. KEEPEROFTHEGATE 2:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010


Poor snookums :(
thats ok i got 15,000 BTU's of ac the wife sits on sofa with a blanket today it was 68 inside 90 outside
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 178 Comments: 56141
2758. aquak9
hunker that was disgusting.
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26680
2757. bwi
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes pressure would go up if underwater (a little something I learned from a met on channel 7 down here in Miami).


Divers know that if buoy was actually inverted, pressure of 10meters water would be = one additional atmosphere! My hunch is not malfunction, actually. I'd guess either freakish local thunderstorm or just an accurate reading in a volatile and fast-changing environment.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
2756. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


Crazy reading for sure. Don't know what to make of it other than equipment malfunction. The alternative is that 96L is faking us out LOL

Yeah, it is really strange.
All the readings look good, then "plummet"!
Makes no sense to me.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24925
so 09 where would 97L be going
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456
2754. Patrap
Quoting brla61:
Please say it aint so..Pat!


Keep the NOAA Radio in ALERT mode tonight as this is going to ramp up in Intensity maybe..
T-storm wise,..like this morning
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129904
2753. aquak9
hi zoo.

goodness it's only july 4, we got how many circles out there? we gonna get wet. Ain't no if, ands, or buts about it.

:(
Member Since: August 13, 2005 Posts: 178 Comments: 26680
Quoting aquak9:
COol whip and a brownie

ribs and ice cream
ribs and ice cream you say...you might want to wash it down with this.
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Quoting aquak9:


Whoa, Taz! We're only up to 96L right now. I'm stuck here like a thumb surrounded by hot water.

One at a time!! :)


hey its 2010
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115456

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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