A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

Share this Blog
2
+

Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 2851 - 2801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Antarctic cruise photos from my blog
awesome pics !
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Now that Joe Bastardi agrees on the typhoon type development has anyone heard his thoughts on 96L? I know he called Alex a Mexico landfall about 3 or 4 days before it hit which impressed me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2849. Patrap
Tops now to 40K up from 34K last half hour

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting bwi:
1004.9mb Good night -- tomorrow promises to be interesting, it seems.

wow that droping faster then alex did i think we need to do what bp did and pray excpet this time pray for shear
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes pressure would go up if underwater (a little something I learned from a met on channel 7 down here in Miami).


data logger problem?
solar power supply problem?
telemetry problem?

del p is rather unbelievable unless 96L is already a cat-1 - and it doesn't look that way from satellite.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
4 Aoi's and all within striking distance, great :-/

Tis the season.

Happy 4th All. Been a rainy one here in SECFL, caught the fireworks though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2844. pottery
Quoting hunkerdown:
Its amazing when you can find your long lost brother on the WU blog, and I wondered what ole sis was doing now :)

OH! Nice try there, LMAO...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
42056 pressure must be bad since all the other nearby stations are all around 1013mb
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 97 Comments: 73
2842. Patrap
Quoting HouGalv08:
Well, must be some concern in Houston already about 96L. All 3 of the main Tv stations here put it at the top of the news hour at 10pm.


Dats cuz dey been a lurking here all day..

Snicker,,ack!!!
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2841. bwi
1004.9mb Good night -- tomorrow promises to be interesting, it seems.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1407
2840. bassis
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Maybe an outbreak of red circles soon!


How often does theNHC put out 50% chances?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2839. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Well, must be some concern in Houston already about 96L. All 3 of the main Tv stations here put it at the top of the news hour at 10pm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


We took a cruise to the Antarctic in Feb/Mar 2008--you should go!
Antarctica? Doesn't sound like the sunny tropical beaches that I like visiting. LOL.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2834. Patrap
Station GPOM6 - 8744707 - Gulfport Outer Range, MS

Owned and maintained by NOAA's National Ocean Service
Water Level Observation Network
30.230 N 88.982 W (30°13'48" N 88°58'55" W)

Air temp height: 12.7 m above site elevation

Anemometer height: 13.7 m above site elevation

Barometer elevation: 6.1 m above mean sea level

Search And Rescue (SAR) Data

Meteorological Observations from Nearby Stations and Ships Image indicating link to RSS feed of recent meteorological observations near station
GPOM6


0236 GMT on 07/05/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )

5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 18.1 kts

5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 21.0 kts

5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.96 in

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 83.1 °F

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
95L went poof in a hurry tonight

I expect the NHC to drop the percentage at 2am
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey guys i see we didnt just have fireworks today 4 is this sept becuase 4 alot of invest they may need to shade the whole map yellow in sept
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hunkerdown:
Its amazing when you can find your long lost brother on the WU blog, and I wondered what ole sis was doing now :)
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Maybe an outbreak of red circles soon!

Yes, the NHC red, yellow & orange measles, caused by an extremely weird hurricane season!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
There appears an ULL is developing in the BOC that will have an affect on the Possible steering of 96L.....might be a further NOrth Track it could mean.....it is showing up nicely here....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, haven't checked since last night. How many more floaters do they expect this week?

Sorry I'm late, but even at my age I lead a very active life. Had to take the garbage out you know.


You call that active lol? I had to dig out decorative rocks.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well my sister works for Royal Caribbean so we get "discounts" when cruising. It definitely is en experience when cruising to the Caymans, I myself really enjoy it.
Its amazing when you can find your long lost brother on the WU blog, and I wondered what ole sis was doing now :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centrfla:
thanks zoo...should have known by your name ..duh..here in deland (fl) been raining all day


No problem -- we didn't have sunny skies - but fortunately it didn't rain that much. Still had our big family bbq.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting kmanislander:


Cruises ( plural ) and only 13 ??. Sounds like paradise exists in more than one place !.
LOL. Well my sister works for Royal Caribbean so we get "discounts" (although I really wouldn't refer to it as a discount as only about 15% is taken off) when cruising. It definitely is en experience when cruising to the Caymans, I myself really enjoy it.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting pottery:

Could be. But 1015 is high even so, given the conditions.?
Strange stuff.


I think its going to be the year of strange weather. I think we are going to see things this year that have not been seen for a long time... if ever.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 2807: That's what it looked like the day I was there in May! (daylight though)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks zoo...should have known by your name ..duh..here in deland (fl) been raining all day
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hmmmm while I was out colored spots galore broke out, and we have a dubious pressure reading from 42056. 96L has had some convection dieback, but looks better organized, and may become a depression tomorrow.

Hope everyone has had a great 4th!

The NHC Atlantic Forecast region has an attack of the yellow & orange measles :o)!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2817. Patrap
..negative Houston.

Were not following the tropical Overview this season.

Actually we tore it up..

Copy?

Over..


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
2816. pottery
Quoting kmanislander:


I can only assume that the rain is unrelated to the core of 96L which has apparently moved out of this area, hence rising surface pressures.

Could be. But 1015 is high even so, given the conditions.?
Strange stuff.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24903
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I remember walking down those exact streets when I take cruises down there. Kman, you literally live in paradise.



Cruises ( plural ) and only 13 ??. Sounds like paradise exists in more than one place !.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting Grothar:


Sorry, haven't checked since last night. How many more floaters do they expect this week?

Sorry I'm late, but even at my age I lead a very active life. Had to take the garbage out you know.
LOL!!! How are things going Gro?
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2812. Patrap
Quoting beell:
95L can't get no respect, Pat. "NCEP Fronts" slapped an "H" over it!

But ain't 96L sitting pretty?

Link



No Sir..

I dont like it still.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting centrfla:
zoomiami...where are you located


Miami- more specifically the Falls area (south dade)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2809. Grothar
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
your getting better at it but now ur late


Sorry, haven't checked since last night. How many more floaters do they expect this week?

Sorry I'm late, but even at my age I lead a very active life. Had to take the garbage out you know.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2808. Patrap
Quoting BiloxiIsle:

Don't want a replay of Cindy.


More of a Ghost than a replay..

..but the Line out in the Sound is getting better organized tonight and rotating westward
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
I remember walking down those exact streets when I take cruises down there. Kman, you literally live in paradise.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
2806. beell
95L can't get no respect, Pat. "NCEP Fronts" slapped an "H" over it!

But ain't 96L sitting pretty?

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting zoomiami:


You really like it when those green spots are over my head don't you?


Now now.. you asked for them.. I still have the note :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2803. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 1.45 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 428 Comments: 129902
Quoting Patrap:
What is Interesting is that 95L is exactly where Hurricane Cindy was in 2005,,save for a day.

Don't want a replay of Cindy.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 2851 - 2801

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | 86 | 87 | 88 | 89 | 90 | 91 | 92 | 93 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 97 | 98 | 99 | 100 | 101 | 102 | 103 | 104 | 105 | 106 | 107 | 108 | 109Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
37 °F
Overcast

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Lake Effort Snow Shower Over Windsor, Ontario
Sunset on Dunham Lake
Pictured Rocks Sunset
Sunset on Lake Huron