A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting TampaSpin:


Kman...your arguing with one of the Blog kids...you know where this is heading....LOL


Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Quoting pottery:

Unidentified Floating Objects?
Hadnt thought of that!


The ufo lifted the buoy up into the air and its floating up about 200ft above the sea.....
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2899. xcool


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Quoting Grothar:


Is this advice from experience??????


It is!...LOL.....a full 1 weeks worth of experience....and a freaking season to go of the Unknown.....LOL
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2897. SaraGal
Quoting Bordonaro:

The NHC Atlantic Forecast region has an attack of the yellow & orange measles :o)!!


ZITS!
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,
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
What the fourth?
.
.

I leave for a few hours to go cook a burger and the Atlantic breaks out into a pox of potential cyclones! 3 yellows and an orange. The yellows will probably turn into lemons but do need to be watched....but the orange is trouble. Counter-CLOCKWORK ORANGE!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Kman...your arguing with one of the Blog kids...you know where this is heading....LOL


LOL!
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I will have to say this MiamiHurricanes09 has lived a better life up to age 13 than I did. When I was 13 I was lucky to go to grandma's house. :)
LOL!
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting hercj:

Hey spin were getting back in the swing if you know what I mean. LOL


Ya i know it.......i would rather Rock than Swing tho....LOL
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2891. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:


Kman...your arguing with one of the Blog kids...you know where this is heading....LOL


Is this advice from experience??????
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2889. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
When dem UFOs tie up to a Buoy for a pee break the pressure falls that fast usually.


No biggie.

Unidentified Floating Objects?
Hadnt thought of that!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
2888. xcool
no f- shear
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Great pics StSimonsIslandGAGuy I would love to be in there. Sure you be way better than all this heat.
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I will have to say this MiamiHurricanes09 has lived a better life up to age 13 than I did. When I was 13 I was lucky to go to grandma's house. :)
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Quoting Grothar:


Can't leave you people for one day. I come back on my PC is covered with blobs. Doing good 09.
LOL. Good to hear.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2883. Grothar
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL!!! How are things going Gro?


Can't leave you people for one day. I come back on my PC is covered with blobs. Doing good 09.
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someone has to go out there and hit the thing with a hammer!
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2881. hercj
Quoting TampaSpin:


It looks to be just developing IMO...LOOK close! Still digging in!

Hey spin were getting back in the swing if you know what I mean. LOL
Member Since: September 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 319
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Houston has had alot of rain this week and they cannot take much more without major flooding.


Here in Pearland, we had 8 inches between Thursday and Friday. We can't take much more right now.
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Quoting kmanislander:


The 1015 mb reading here is from my own weather station which I calibrated from the control tower at the airport. No reason for my station to be wrong.


Kman...your arguing with one of the Blog kids...you know where this is heading....LOL
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2878. Patrap
As 95L getz to D-max past 3am CDT and the dry air which is mostly on the Nw side only now mixes out..expect this lil bugger to fill

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
"...The late nights..."

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Houston has had alot of rain this week and they cannot take much more without major flooding.
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At this point we should prob shade the atl yellow becuase its only 4 days into july and we have 3 yellow circles and an orange circle
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Quoting kmanislander:


Very odd. Nothing showing on the satellite that would indicate something going on there.
I know. This buoy is further N and W than 96L. Weird.
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2871. Patrap
When dem UFOs tie up to a Buoy for a pee break the pressure falls that fast usually.


No biggie.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Evening, Tim! It's moving northward, though.


It looks to be just developing IMO...LOOK close! Still digging in!
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well I think that pressures that the buoy near yucatan is wrong and I think the 1015 pressures that is reading on a station here is also wrong my station here is reading 1014.1/1014.0 and falling slowly right now I see the COC near 17.8N 81.5W maybe with pressures 1009/1010 mb but in a small area


The 1015 mb reading here is from my own weather station which I calibrated from the control tower at the airport. No reason for my station to be wrong.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
2868. xcool
2am 97L COME SOON.
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2867. Patrap
My NDBC Station



Station NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
2866. pottery
Quoting Bordonaro:
Down to 29.67"


The general consensus is, that there is a problem with that reading.
But noboddy can figure what the problem may be.
Very peculiar...
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24019
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Conditions at 42056 as of
(9:50 pm CDT on 07/04/2010)
0250 GMT on 07/05/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 3.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.7 m
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 123 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1004.9 mb
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -3.8 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.7 °C
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.4 °C
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 25.0 °C
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 29.9 °C
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure


Still falling ?


Very odd. Nothing showing on the satellite that would indicate something going on there.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
well I think that pressures that the buoy near yucatan is wrong and I think the 1015 pressures that is reading on a station here is also wrong my station here is reading 1014.1/1014.0 and falling slowly right now I see the COC near 17.8N 81.5W maybe with pressures 1009/1010 mb but in a small area
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Quoting Patrap:


Dats cuz dey been a lurking here all day..

Snicker,,ack!!!
LOL.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Great stuff. If you like cars there is a new car museum here now with about 15 Ferraris dating back to the early 60's and lots of other exciting stuff like the original batmobile of TV fame. Elton John's Rolls Royce is also there. For US$10.00 well worth a visit when you get back. A Model T Ford also on display.
That's very cool. I'll make sure to check it out next time I go down there.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Conditions at 42056 as of
(9:50 pm CDT on 07/04/2010)
0250 GMT on 07/05/2010:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:

Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.
5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 140 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 2.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 3.0 m/s
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 1.7 m
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 6.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 123 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 1004.9 mb
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -3.8 mb ( Falling Rapidly )

5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 26.7 °C
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 29.4 °C
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 25.0 °C
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 29.9 °C
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure


Still falling ?
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2859. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL. Well my sister works for Royal Caribbean so we get "discounts" (although I really wouldn't refer to it as a discount as only about 15% is taken off) when cruising. It definitely is en experience when cruising to the Caymans, I myself really enjoy it.


Great stuff. If you like cars there is a new car museum here now with about 15 Ferraris dating back to the early 60's and lots of other exciting stuff like the original batmobile of TV fame. Elton John's Rolls Royce is also there.Well worth a visit when you get back. A Model T Ford also on display.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15725
2857. xcool
homelesswanderer HI .HI ALL.
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Whenever I leave Something forms happened with Alex and Dolly 08 Chris 06 dean 07 I think Bonnie will form soon since I'm in CT tomorrow
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Quoting ThePlywoodState:
Evening, Tim! It's moving northward, though.

oh good the real plywood state dude u have an imposter
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Down to 29.67"

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Quoting pottery:

OH! Nice try there, LMAO...
He does live in Miami so there has to be some connection, lol. I've always wondered if I find people that blog here on the streets, it would definitely be crazy.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2852. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 420 Comments: 127536
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Antarctic cruise photos from my blog
awesome pics !
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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