A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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2951. Patrap
Jar head Invest July 1980
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2950. DehSoBe
Hi. Are there any model runs on the wave approaching the Lesser Ant.? Where is south Florida in those runs?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


some cant make the Few,and the proud cut.

I understand.

Thanks for your service.


How many years did you have Pat. and what MOC
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
what the heck happened to lil ol 95l??
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Quoting Patrap:


some cant make the Few,and the proud cut.

I understand.

Thanks for your service.


lol, i have brothers that are squids and jarheads in my family, its always interesting when we get together
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2946. centex
Quoting aspectre:
kmanislander "Very odd. Nothing showing on the satellite that would indicate something going on there".
2872 stormwatcherCI "I know. This buoy is further N and W than 96L. Weird."

Okay, what am I missing here?
A hurricane can have multiple cyclones embedded within the eyewall, hot towers.
So why can't a large invest have multiple lows?
Need I say more?




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2945. Patrap
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2944. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting TxMarc71:
Woah...
what the heck happened to lil ol 95l??
It seems to have gone *poof* and vanished!
stealth mode 95L and AOI over sw atlantic
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Quoting Patrap:


V1,,then V2 is what a Pilot uses for The Airspeed to Rotate the Stick back.

Maybe ya wanna google "aviation,V1 V2"
Or spend a few years in th USMC Air Wing.
USMC...dang I though you were a USAF kinda guy. Ohh well, I guess we can't get all the smart ones...LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2941. Patrap
Quoting RuBRNded:


No ty, i was smart enough to get into the Army recon, tyvm, lol


some cant make the Few,and the proud cut.

I understand.

Thanks for your service.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
quite right MH09 when the HH flies into 96L we will have a better idea on what is going on maybe when D-MAX kick in thing will look better and hopfully the surface Obs gan get a grip
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2937. xcool
TampaSpin thanks yeah to me


medicroc thanks.
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quit worrying about that 95L Pat, Bonnie maybe coming to visit you next week
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Quoting Patrap:


V1,,then V2 is what a Pilot uses for The Airspeed to Rotate the Stick back.

Maybe ya wanna google "aviation,V1 V2"
Or spend a few years in th USMC Air Wing.


No ty, i was smart enough to get into the Army recon, tyvm, lol
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2934. Patrap
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Goodnight KMan.
Patrap....it looks like it's raining and blowing pretty good in NOLA. What's your current conditions?


Just put 70115 in the Box up in the corner of this wu page
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Quoting xcool:



huhhhhhhhhhh

Thanks for the post
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Not good for them.Earlier someone posted something about a ULL forming over Texas;Is this something that change the track more Northerly?
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Goodnight KMan.
Patrap....it looks like it's raining and blowing pretty good in NOLA. What's your current conditions?
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2930. hercj
Quoting RuBRNded:


V2 was a rocket, no wheels, lol

Aerodynamic formula for reaching rotation speed of an aircraft on takeoff run. In other words Wheels up.
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2929. Patrap
Quoting RuBRNded:


V2 was a rocket, no wheels, lol


V1,,then V2 is what a Pilot uses for The Airspeed to Rotate the Stick back.

Maybe ya wanna google "aviation,V1 V2"
Or spend a few years in th USMC Air Wing.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:



huhhhhhhhhhh


LOOKS pretty dam closed to me...NICE XCool....nice job.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

dont you have better things todo like hide in a shower curtain, we all hate u, u drive this blog to the breaking point why dont you just go away

i don't know you but i don't hate you. children please! i have to listen to my 4yr, old and 8 yr. old fight all day. do you really need to have childish arguments on this blog. its tropical weather blog! lets stick to it, please:) thanks in advance
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Quoting mrsalagranny:
Good evening Msgambler and everyone.What is going on with 96l tonight?
Evening granny. It's going to MX/TX, or so everyone seems to think.
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Quoting MarineMeteorologist:
someone has to go out there and hit the thing with a hammer!
Is that like kicking the soda machine?

lol
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Quoting xcool:



huhhhhhhhhhh



Seriously asking what does that mean?
Member Since: June 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 546
Quoting Patrap:


U betcha..

V2,, Rotate,

wheels up..



V2 was a rocket, no wheels, lol
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Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:
0z CMC Regional (global not out yet) has 96L south of the SE LA coast in 48 hours.

Good evening Msgambler and everyone.What is going on with 96l tonight?
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2921. Patrap
Quoting DauphinNotDolphin:
0z CMC Regional (global not out yet) has 96L south of the SE LA coast in 48 hours.



U posted the earlier run I remember as well.

A Lil consistency there I may say.

thanx
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Woah...
what the heck happened to lil ol 95l??
It seems to have gone *poof* and vanished!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
kmanislander "Very odd. Nothing showing on the satellite that would indicate something going on there".
2872 stormwatcherCI "I know. This buoy is further N and W than 96L. Weird."

Okay, what am I missing here?
A hurricane can have multiple cyclones embedded within the eyewall, hot towers.
So why can't a large invest have multiple lows?
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
0z CMC Regional (global not out yet) has 96L south of the SE LA coast in 48 hours.

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2917. xcool



huhhhhhhhhhh
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Night kman
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2915. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Nice !.

Well, I don't think the mystery of 96L will be resolved tonight so I am turning in myself. I hope I don't wake up to find that it has reformed overhead. This is stacking up to be a crazy year.

Good night all.


nitey Kman.
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Quoting Patrap:


I find for the Kman counselor.
Case Dismissed.

Lets go to da Bar.

Im buying.


Nice !.

Well, I don't think the mystery of 96L will be resolved tonight so I am turning in myself. I hope I don't wake up to find that it has reformed overhead. This is stacking up to be a crazy year.

Good night all.
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2913. Patrap
Quoting hercj:

Pat you are truly one of a kind. LMAO


U betcha..

V2,, Rotate,

wheels up..

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2912. Patrap
Climo is creepy sometimes

Sheesh.

Current




2005 tomorrow night

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2911. centex
Quoting xcool:


no dry air
unless your soon to be X 95L
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At first not much
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2909. hercj
Quoting Patrap:


I find for the Kman counselor.
Case Dismissed.

Lets go to da Bar.

Im buying.

Pat you are truly one of a kind. LMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Patrap:


I find for the Kman counselor.
Case Dismissed.

Lets go to da Bar.

Im buying.
If your buying, I'll have a double
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2907. pottery
Quoting MarineMeteorologist:


The ufo lifted the bouy up into the air and its floating up about 200ft above the sea.....

heheheh

See you all tomorrow, sometime.
Keep an eye on stuff, will you?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24085
2906. bassis
Q: What chance was Alex given by the NHC
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2905. Patrap
Quoting kmanislander:


Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear.


I find for the Kman counselor.
Case Dismissed.

Lets go to da Bar.

Im buying.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Good night all. Gonna be a long day tomorrow with recon going in to investigate 96L.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
2903. xcool


no dry air
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Kman...your arguing with one of the Blog kids...you know where this is heading....LOL


Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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