A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3001. will45
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RitaEvac:
Looking like a large anticylonic high to set up over Bonnie


now see, I come to this blog looking for info and you are spewing Bonnie when the fact is it hasn't even been named, dang son, I about fell out when I saw "Bonnie" in ur post, which made me do a model run for something that isn't even named

a prime example of what many bloggers here preach......if it's not named, don't call it by the upcoming name then

Happy 4th yall, Let Freedom Ring
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OminousCloud:
where exactly is this AOI near the bahamas ??
follow the yellow brick road...or make that the yellow circle, over the Bahamas.
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2998. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting will45:


they are going tomorrow at 1:30


542

NOUS42 KNHC 041445

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS

CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.

1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010

SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)

VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010

TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034



I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS

1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70

A. 05/1800Z

B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST

C. 05/1500Z

D. 19.5N 86.0W

E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z

F. SFC TO 10,000 FT



2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES

AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z

CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.



II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS

1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

SEF
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2997. EricSFL
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
EricSFL wait! Here you go! :)


I appreciate it! Guess I might still have a chance. I took the ship on my avatar last December - beautiful ship, but boring itinerary.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting taco2me61:
ok Keeper and Pat you too need not talk about that thing for next week....
We have Jimmy Buffet giving a concert and don't need that messed up....

Taco :o)

Taco, do you have tickets?
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2995. scott39
Quoting taco2me61:
ok Keeper and Pat you too need not talk about that thing for next week....
We have Jimmy Buffet giving a concert and don't need that messed up....

Taco :o)
He cancelled at the opening of his new hotel in Orange beach, when alex was going to Mexico. It was a big disappointment.
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where exactly is this AOI near the bahamas ??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure.

Plan of the Day

000
NOUS42 KNHC 041445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting centex:
They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure.


how do you think the classify systems?

they flew into 93L to determine it was TD 1, and they are flying into 96L tomorrow
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7869
Quoting MarineMeteorologist:
Check out the pressure fall at 42056



Looks like the eye of the storm?

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2990. will45
edit today didnt knotice what time is is now
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2989. will45
Quoting centex:
They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure.


they are going tomorrow at 1:30
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2988. DehSoBe
whats your take on the track on the wave near the leewards?
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Quoting muddertracker:
The 00z TVCN puts 96'er smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast. The NHC used this model to track Alex, and they were right.
Link
the TVCN is not a model, it is a consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (it replaced old CONU "model").
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2986. centex
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L?
They don't fly into invest and just an area of interest. When/if it becomes a TD and have something to measure.
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
thanks Bordonaro...

Going to be an exciting week. 96L should develop & the AOI near the Leeward Islands probably will develop over the next few days.

95L appears to be finished and the AOI near the Bahamas bears watching!
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2984. will45
Quoting FirstCoastMan:
When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L?


1:30 pm eastern time
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ok Keeper and Pat you too need not talk about that thing for next week....
We have Jimmy Buffet giving a concert and don't need that messed up....

Taco :o)
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2982. xcool
CybrTeddy .I THINK closed to
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2980. EricSFL
By the time we're actually in September I think most of the basin might look like a Christmas tree full of colored circles. lol
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Quoting xcool:



huhhhhhhhhhh


Looks closed to me. Reminds me yet again of Alex.
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Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Almost 3,000 comments with no tropical depressions or named storms. Incredible.


4 circles though. But 3000 is a lot.
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thanks Bordonaro...
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Quoting txsweetpea:
Does anyone seem to think that 96L will develope? When will it actually get into the gulf?

Yes it appears it will be a TD tomorrow & at least a TS by TU as it moves into the GOM. Models seem to favor a TX or Mexico landfall, but alot can change.
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Holy Crap!Man it's more like fireworks tropics wise. 4 areas to watch like its September!
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The 00z TVCN puts 96'er smack dab in the middle of the Texas coast. The NHC used this model to track Alex, and they were right.
Link
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2972. EricSFL
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Star Princess. I believe that large cruise ships will not be going south of 60 S anymore. They had mentioned an upcoming ban starting in 2011, but haven't kept up with that. Glad you liked the pictures!


Ok thanks.
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Quoting FirstCoastMan:
When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L?

I thought tomorrow afternoon.
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When are the hurricane hunters supposed to fly into 96L?
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Quoting futureguy:



Yes it seams with 4 tropical lows out there mother nature has decided to mop up mans negligence with the gulf oil geyser.


What are the odds that this spill would be positioned where it is, when it is, at record level SST's, AND a La Nina?
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night all! check back at 3:30am when i get up for work! to much going on, but have to sleep!
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Does anyone seem to think that 96L will develope? When will it actually get into the gulf?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BahaHurican:
Is that like kicking the soda machine?

lol
more like tapping on your fuel gauge...
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G'nite all.
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2963. centex
The dry air is building around 95L, I don't see how anything can develop in that envirnoment. I thought it might have a chance earlier but only if dry moved out, it's not.
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Mother nature knows and knows what's best. She realizes that the nit wits running on her surface have polluted her Gulf, and must send multiple cat 4s and 5s to clean up the mess
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2961. Patrap
Me too.

A lot to cover come this week seems
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
Quoting kmanislander:


Ah well. What can I say. No argument really, the facts are clear.



Yes it seams with 4 tropical lows out there mother nature has decided to mop up mans negligence with the gulf oil geyser.
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2959. EricSFL
StSimonsIslandGAGuy nice pictures from the Antarctic cruise! Looks like a Princess ship, what was its name? I have been interested in that itinerary for a while now.
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2958. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting RitaEvac:
quit worrying about that 95L Pat, Bonnie maybe coming to visit you next week
yes nightmares are so much better
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Looking like a large anticylonic high to set up over Bonnie
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Happy 4th of July everyone! Looks like we got 4 AOI now, probably only 2 bear watching. Got a bad feeling about the one near the Leewards.
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2955. xcool
95L BYE
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2954. hercj
I am out. Night Pat talk to you tomorrow.
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2953. JLPR2
Quoting TxMarc71:
what the heck happened to lil ol 95l??


Nothing, it just lost the little weak convection it had developed.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2952. Patrap
Quoting RuBRNded:


lol, i have brothers that are squids and jarheads in my family, its always interesting when we get together


I bet.

Mine as well.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089
2951. Patrap
Jar head Invest July 1980
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129089

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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