A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting Seastep:
OK. For the 95L... and life... and such... knock it off.

You obviously don't live in FL.

Is it a weather event? Yes. Watch the weather, but this should not be something raising alarm.

This is from a storm (that's 150mph anchorage) that came through my neighborhood about a month ago.



95L is not going to produce that. Not even close.

If someone is not watching the weather and knowing that they are going to get some rain and wind, well, tough.

I guess the bottom line is, it is not something that needs to be prepared for.

Anyone in a hurricane effected area that is "really" concerned about this needs to move.

Looks nice, though. ;)


Seastep....Informative MAIL
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So is he going to give Iran some new rockets to advance O'bamas muslim agenda?
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5249. xcool
Tazmanian LOL
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Quoting Baltimorebirds:
A lot of dissapointed people........


In the end that got it right IMO

not disappointed here
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7233
Just updated, my bad. Post season analysis could reveal a sub tropical depression instead. Onto 96L, which is showing signs of development, although this could be a theme like last night where it looked good and then fizzled. Tomorrow morning will be interesting near DMAX.
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5245. calder
Quoting btwntx08:
for those u posted the TWO miami was the only allowed to post it no one else


oh really? u should probably email admin. actually from now on i'm the only one allowed to speculate exaggerated percentages...
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BONNIE RED ALERT!!!!!
(cancelled)




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Sure looks like something will happen in the gulf soon enough.

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5240. Patrap
Quoting cg2916:
What warranted a 60% in the first place?


Musta been my YouTube video from 4:30 pm CDT
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
5239. bappit
Quoting cg2916:
What warranted a 60% in the first place?

The little system was intensifying. Patrap posted a nice radar loop on it.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
From 0% to 60% back to 0%

I would like some of the stuff the NHC is on
Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
5237. calder
good god people. Think about it. 95L suddenly started trying to organise and it looked to the nhc like it might be able to make depression status before landfall - hence the special advisory at 60%... Now since we're close to coc landfall and the system isn't yet a depression hence the percentage drops to near 0. Is it really that hard to comprehend?
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"Go to tropics chat"- Eddye
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5234. bappit
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.

Maybe the point is named Humberto. Whatever. Fortunately we don't have anything important to argue about.
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
The NHC page hasn't even updated yet, so cool down.
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
5231. xcool
now you know why i was lol
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Ok, everybody back in their chairs yet?
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5228. cg2916
What warranted a 60% in the first place?
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Alright, I'm going to call it. 95L's RIP.. finally.
I wouldn't call it RIP until it is no longer able to cause any damage or flooding. Until then maybe not a tropical system but still alive and kicking.
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Looks like forecasters STEWART/CANGIALOSI's coloring contest didn't go over too well last night...this one is pretty conservative, imo...kimberlain like, even...
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5224. bappit
Quoting reedzone:
I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go!

When it goes inland ...
Member Since: May 18, 2006 Posts: 10 Comments: 5558
Canotore just said that winds are TS force but it is coming ashore now and it is not widespread so won't be classified. Mentioned that it is a problem for the oil recovery and has been all week.
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5222. cg2916
Quoting reedzone:
I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go!


We've seen this before in 90L from last year.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
My question to the NHC:

If you are just going to put it right back to 0%, what's the purpose of raising it to 60%.

I've got a feeling that mister "STEWART" is going to get an ear fold by the big honcho.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
back to near zero
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5218. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
HA HA LOL YELLOW 0% AND 30% ORANNGE

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Alright, I'm going to call it. 95L's RIP.. finally.
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Really?? At 5:10 there is a 60% chance of tropical cyclone development with the low in the Gulf. The new advisory...0% chance. Wow...that's a new one.
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I think the NHC has gone nuts this year :P.. 60% to 0%.. way to go!
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5212. aquak9
elconando- that was awesome!
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5211. cg2916
Quoting CybrTeddy:
What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.


Dunno.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
way ta go nhc
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO!


LOLOL Bonnie is..here..gone...LOLOL but darn ruined my day in the sun!
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No circle for the Antilles wave.
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What was the point even in bringing it to 60%? Sheesh.
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5206. cg2916
Ha, back down to 0 for 95L.

This reminds me so much of 90L from 2009. It was code red, then all of a sudden code yellow because it was moving inland.
Member Since: December 21, 2007 Posts: 13 Comments: 3026
5204. Patrap
Snicker..ack..

hee,hee..

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125476
from 0 too 60 back too 0 lol
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5202. xcool
LMAO
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Quoting Patrap:
I bet the NHC guy ready to Hit "Post" is smirking big time.

LOL
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.