A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting will45:


Today it is Monday already eastern time
Oh yeah my bad
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The last time there were four areas worth mentioning in the Atlantic, I believe, was on September 1, 2008. I know, because I was being battered by Hurricane Gustav at the time, and saw just before the electricity went out. Two areas were Gustav and Hanna, and the other two areas were pre-Ike and pre-Josephine.

I'm quite surprised to see this in July. I'm really, really worried about this season. I hate to see what the peak has in store.
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3049. xcool
hunkerdown WELCOME.
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3048. will45
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
They are going into 96L tomorrow afternoon. no one canceled any flights into it yet


Today it is Monday already eastern time
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I keep forgetting how late it is for you guys... only 2123 here :)
thats 9:23 pm for the civilians :P
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3046. centex
It will be a development sign if they do fly tomorrow and it's still in question. Not predicting anything here. They could declare TD earlier. NHC gives it 50% chance in 48 hours. If still 50% chance at 10AM and still looks ragged they may cancel flight. If it does light up they will run flights every 6 hours, and you can bank on that baring technical problems.
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Quoting xcool:


HERE MY OLD POSTING
That looks closed
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Quoting xcool:


HERE MY OLD POSTING
I was just about to refresh your post...thanks.
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Quoting will45:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

this one has cordinances for 96L

They are going into 96L tomorrow afternoon. no one canceled any flights into it yet
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Quoting msgambler:
Pat, Orca, KOTG, ya'll have a good night. I have to get to bed. Coffeepot starts early in this house.


I keep forgetting how late it is for you guys... only 2123 here :)
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Quoting mobilebayal:
If I somehow get some tickets, you can have them Taco!
Thank You So Much but I think you need to go..... :o) It will be a good break from the everyday Rat race, if you know what I mean :o)
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3040. xcool


HERE MY OLD POSTING
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Quoting stillwaiting:
by my latest analysis I'm thinking we have TD2 at this moment!!!


no closed surface low, lets not get ahead of ourselves

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Quoting will45:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

this one has cordinances for 96L



yup
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3037. will45
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

this one has cordinances for 96L

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by my latest analysis I'm thinking we have TD2 at this moment!!!
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3034. xcool
TAMPSPIN I GUESS I WAS RIGTH SIR..
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If I somehow get some tickets, you can have them Taco!
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


that was for 95L not 96L
thats what I thought...

000
NOUS42 KNHC 021400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 02 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-032

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF COAST)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 70
A. 03/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 03/1700Z
D. 28.5N 86.5W
E. 03/1730Z TO 03/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 04/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/0445Z
D. 28.0N 87.0W
E. 04/0515Z TO 04/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
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3031. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting msgambler:
Pat, Orca, KOTG, ya'll have a good night. I have to get to bed. Coffeepot starts early in this house.
night
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
WOW! i come on here expecting two circles like last night and what do i see four circles now the season is getting in gear but out of the four only two of them im concerned about one 96L which could be another alex only more north and the wave off the antilles.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

oh crap


What??
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aspectre "Okay, what am I missing here?
A hurricane can have multiple cyclones embedded within the eyewall, hot towers.
So why can't a large invest also have multiple lows?"
2946 centex "Need I say more? [centralGOM Loop]"

Yep, I need further explanation. I'm totally missing something that is glaringly obvious to everyone else engaging in this low pressure anomaly discussion.

Earlier today only movement of a few stray clouds in the southeast and northeast quandrants around a central point indicated that there was a "ghost"CoC, which in turn indicated a "ghost"95L existed.
Can't mid-level/upper-level counter-direction/cross-direction clouds hide a surface low?
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I'm so sorry Mobilebay and I heard Kenny will not be there now on the 11th... Not sure who else will be there though....
Maybe listen to the Radio this week and see if anyone will be giving them away..... I know I will be listening for some....

Taco :o)
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they have this up now

oh crap
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Pat, Orca, KOTG, ya'll have a good night. I have to get to bed. Coffeepot starts early in this house.
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3024. xcool
wunderkidcayman I WAS JUST ABOUT POSTING THAT /
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3023. will45
Quoting Hurricanes101:


that was for 95L not 96L


yes you correct but the one for today is 96L
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3022. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
they have this up now
awaiting T.C.F.A. message
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 173 Comments: 54283
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHERN GULF)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 28.0N 90.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


both canceled flights were for 95L, the recon flight for tomorrow is the very first one scheduled for 96L
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Quoting hunkerdown:
the TVCN is not a model, it is a consensus of GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, GFDL, HWRF, GFDN, and ECMWF models (it replaced old CONU "model").
oh..OK..the NHC really liked this consensus when tracking Alex...
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Quoting will45:
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.

it was scheduled for the 3rd and 4th but canceled but the flight for the 5th is still on for now


that was for 95L not 96L
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they have this up now
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3016. will45
Quoting hunkerdown:
was that for 95L or 96L ?


96L
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Taco, I have no tickets!
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Quoting will45:
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.

it was scheduled for the 3rd and 4th but canceled but the flight for the 5th is still on for now
was that for 95L or 96L ?
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Quoting mobilebayal:

Taco, do you have tickets?

Mobilebay do you have Tickets????

Taco :o)
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3012. will45
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 03/1800Z AND 04/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 03/1200Z.

it was scheduled for the 3rd and 4th but canceled but the flight for the 5th is still on for now
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Quoting scott39:
He cancelled at the opening of his new hotel in Orange beach, when alex was going to Mexico. It was a big disappointment.
Yes he did but now it is on Sunday the 11th. But with possible Bonnie coming into the Gulf it too might get cancelled....

Taco ;o)
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Hi everyone....well, I guess SE Texas is in the clear....our local weather stations said so...

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3009. xcool
TD 96L COME
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Quoting centex:
Maybe, they will cancel like they did today if they don't think TD developing.


there was no recon scheduled for today for 96L
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3007. will45
Quoting centex:
Maybe, they will cancel like they did today if they don't think TD developing.


can just about guarantee they will fly this one
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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3005. centex
Quoting will45:


they are going tomorrow at 1:30
Maybe, they will cancel like they did today if they don't think TD developing.
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Quoting mobilebayal:

Taco, do you have tickets?

No I did not get any because I was on call this week but now that it will be on Sunday the 11th I might want to try to get me some....

Taco :o)
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KOTG
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 041445
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SUN 04 JULY 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z JULY 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-034

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 05/1500Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 05/1730Z TO 05/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES
AT 06/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: TASKING FOR 04/1800Z AND 05/0600Z
CANCELED BY NHC AT 04/1200Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
SEF

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3001. will45
FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 05/0445Z
D. 28.5N 91.0W
E. 05/0515Z TO 05/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.