A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3101. GPTGUY
5 years ago...very active. could we be seeing a repeat?

a href="http://" target="_blank">Link
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3100. xcool
sarahjola hard tell from image
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting sarahjola:
how strong might it be if it does make landfall there on wed.? that is what it says right? wed.? thanks in advance:)


I'm not sure if you're referring to the strength as depicted on the CMC, or if you're referring to the strength of 96L independent of a model forecast. If the latter, then I could see a Category 1 or 2, if it stays north of 25N.

The farther south it tracks, the less likely we'll even see a hurricane at all, because of Alex's cold water upwelling in the areas south of 25N.

This is, of course, my opinion, and it is not set in stone. It is based on the 12 and 18z GFS 200 mb shear forecast, as well as my own forecast track.
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Looks like CMC back to TX/LA. I think. Waiting on the bigger easy to read version comes out. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting hunkerdown:
I believe it was more north and east than Alex. he also said NOT an Opal type track.


yes more n and e !
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Quoting xcool:



CMC NEW LA
how strong might it be if it does make landfall there on wed.? that is what it says right? wed.? thanks in advance:)
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Quoting xcool:
hmmm spin on 96L


I checked surface and buoy observations this afternoon, and there were no indications of a closed surface circulation.

However, recent satellite animations suggest that some westerly winds are beginning to appear along the south side of 96L. So this could be changing.

Given the low surface pressures in the area, this is not surprising.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:
GMZ089-050930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 27.5N90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN NW AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST MON EVENING AS IT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR 24N90W TUE NIGHT...27N93W WED NIGHT...AND NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT.

Ugh! Pass the Alka seltzer.


hmmmmmm...sorry don't have any alka seltzer. :)
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GMZ089-050930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 PM CDT SUN JUL 04 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO
A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 27.5N90W. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO TURN NW AND
REACH THE SOUTHERN LOUISIANA COAST MON EVENING AS IT BECOMES
DIFFUSE. LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
LOW WILL BE NEAR 24N90W TUE NIGHT...27N93W WED NIGHT...AND NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST THU NIGHT.

Ugh! Pass the Alka seltzer.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting Grothar:
96 starting to look mean

They should diffenaitely send in the plane tomorrow
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3091. xcool
hmmm spin on 96L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting hunkerdown:
agree with 96L, TX to LA, for now...my comment was based solely on the Antilles AOI.


Ah, okay.
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Quoting rareaire:
I think Storm said that the storms in the area of 96 will tend to track more n and east due to the make up of the gulf this week.
I believe it was more north and east than Alex. he also said NOT an Opal type track.
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Quoting sarahjola:
projections seem to be on a eastward trend. is that right? are they starting to go more east? will 96l pick up forward speed?
The models are on an eastward trend.
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3087. Grothar
96 starting to look mean

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3086. centex
I checked the various Sat images on 96L and tried to see where forming. NHC gave only broad area between 22/82 and 15/84. The shortwave seems to show center around 83/17.5.
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I think Storm said that the storms in the area of 96 will tend to track more n and east due to the make up of the gulf this week.
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projections seem to be on a eastward trend. is that right? are they starting to go more east? will 96l pick up forward speed?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I dunno, I certainly could see 96L reaching the Texas or Louisiana coasts. Really depends on the depth system, though.

I agree about the Antilles wave not going out to sea, though.
agree with 96L, TX to LA, for now...my comment was based solely on the Antilles AOI.
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Quoting xcool:



CMC NEW LA
I think the cmc is to far north with 96L i think a south texas mexico landfall just my opinion
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Quoting sarahjola:
when will we have new model runs? i don't know anything about steering currents. could someone explain to me what the steering currents are right now and what they can become in the next 3 days? also can someone tell me if 96l will pick up forward speed anytime soon? thanks in advance:)
the models will not have a great grasp on a track until this is classified...it is a lot of guesswork for the models now. they currently don't even know what to initialize.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
that also looks to take the AOI by the Antilles north and out to sea...hmmm, not sure I put much credence into that.


I dunno, I certainly could see 96L reaching the Texas or Louisiana coasts. Really depends on the depth of the system, though.

I agree about the Antilles wave not going out to sea, though.
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NOAA will give the 96L flight a go if paranoid; which they should be about protecting oil spill recovery and capping assets.
Especially after losing their leadership position to USGS on spill rate estimates cuz of the "everything is as good as it could possibly be" attitude they displayed earlier
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Quoting xcool:



CMC NEW LA
that also looks to take the AOI by the Antilles north and out to sea...hmmm, not sure I put much credence into that.
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when will we have new model runs? i don't know anything about steering currents. could someone explain to me what the steering currents are right now and what they can become in the next 3 days? also can someone tell me if 96l will pick up forward speed anytime soon? thanks in advance:)
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3076. xcool



CMC NEW LA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3075. xcool
NEW CMC LA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
Quoting KoritheMan:
18z GFS (operational) keeps vertical shear quite favorable until around 72 hours, when an upper-level low enters the Gulf of Mexico from the east. By then though, the system might be away from the strongest shear, so it will be irrelevant. The environment also appears to be weakly anticyclonic.


Also should be noted that in the 18z run, the GFS keeps the upper low weaker than in the 12z run. It will be interesting to see if this continues and becomes a trend.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
based on current conditions, the "system" would almost have to go through RD (rapid dissipation) for them to cancel today's flight.
Yep this has the look of a developing system they should send in the plane just in case
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Quoting centex:
Just saying NHC will only give go for HH if warranted. They schedule flights which may be needed and cancel as needed. Some were saying it’s going no matter and that is not true. Not trying to predict when this system develops.

I understand, the NHC believes a trip is warranted and I agree if 96L is looking healthy in the morning they should fly and check 96L out.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
18z GFS (operational) keeps vertical shear quite favorable until around 72 hours, when an upper-level low enters the Gulf of Mexico from the east. By then though, the system might be away from the strongest shear, so it will be irrelevant. The environment also appears to be weakly anticyclonic.
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Quoting TX2FL:


Good Evenin Buffett fans..I haven't been on the blog in over a year..since 2009 was such a bust..

I have tickets for the show..am coming in from TX..do u think this will get cxld too? I'm wondering because 96L..well..following the Alex path has me worried.
With all due respect,
I'm not sure.... With this storm almost in the same place as Alex
and this one just a bit farther north I would not hold my breath....
All depends on Pre-Bonnie and which way she goes.....
I wish I had better "News" for you.....
Oh Yea "Welcome Back" to the Blogs....

Taco :o)
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3069. JRRP
well see you tomorrow

Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5722
Quoting centex:
Just saying NHC will only give go for HH if warranted. They schedule flights which may be needed and cancel as needed. Some were saying it’s going no matter and that is not true. Not trying to predict when this system develops.
based on current conditions, the "system" would almost have to go through RD (rapid dissipation) for them to cancel today's flight.
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Quoting xcool:
i give 96L 70% TD


I agree.
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Take a look at Key West Long Range Radar.

NWS radar image loop of Composite Reflectivity from Key West, FL

Is this the result of 96L's outflow so to speak or the frontal boundary or a combination thereof? For at least the last couple hours, this stormy weather has been occuring.
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Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Its going to be an interesting season thats for sure.


Not to mention that last year, the only time we had more than one circle was during the genesis of TD2/Ana, and pre-Bill and Claudette. Quite a sharp contrast this year.
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3064. centex
Quoting Bordonaro:

96L has been firing off very healthy convection all day long!! And it has real healthy outflow and is slowly organizing.
Just saying NHC will only give go for HH if warranted. They schedule flights which may be needed and cancel as needed. Some were saying it’s going no matter and that is not true. Not trying to predict when this system develops.
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3063. xcool
i give 96L 70% TD
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
3061. TX2FL
Quoting taco2me61:
Thank You So Much but I think you need to go..... :o) It will be a good break from the everyday Rat race, if you know what I mean :o)


Good Evenin Buffett fans..I haven't been on the blog in over a year..since 2009 was such a bust..

I have tickets for the show..am coming in from TX..do u think this will get cxld too? I'm wondering because 96L..well..following the Alex path has me worried.
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Quoting kmanislander:
here is the weather report from our airport. Pressure 1016 mb with rain. Nothing wrong with my weather station it would seem.


Probably more important we view these readings not in absolute terms but in terms of trends they are telling us.

We have one going down - way down. We have others not going down. If yours is rising - it's rising. Use the direction to piece together the story. IMO that matters more than accuracy.
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Still looking quite amazing on imagery tonight.

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Quoting KoritheMan:
The last time there were four areas worth mentioning in the Atlantic, I believe, was on September 1, 2008. I know, because I was being battered by Hurricane Gustav at the time, and saw just before the electricity went out. Two areas were Gustav and Hanna, and the other two areas were pre-Ike and pre-Josephine.

I'm quite surprised to see this in July. I'm really, really worried about this season. I hate to see what the peak has in store.
Its going to be an interesting season thats for sure.
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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Wow the near spitting image of pre-ALEX/TD1 at the time
96L


pre-ALEX/TD1



of course the difference would be that 96L has a bigger Wind area that TD1 and has yellow barbs and TD1 just green
and the movement, when it commences, may/could have a more northerly component.
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Quoting centex:
It will be a development sign if they do fly tomorrow and it's still in question. Not predicting anything here. They could declare TD earlier. NHC gives it 50% chance in 48 hours. If still 50% chance at 10AM and still looks ragged they may cancel flight. If it does light up they will run flights every 6 hours, and you can bank on that baring technical problems.

96L has been firing off very healthy convection all day long!! And it has real healthy outflow and is slowly organizing.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
3055. will45
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
Oh yeah my bad


no prob
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3054. angiest
I thought HWRF was initialized off of GFS? If that is so, how is it picking up 96L, when neither the GFS nor GFDL has it?
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3053. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
000
FZNT02 KNHC 050345
HSFAT2

HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC MON JUL 05 2010

SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY BE
MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

SECURITE

ATLANTIC BETWEEN 07N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO

SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC MON JUL 05.
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC TUE JUL 06.
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED JUL 07.

.WARNINGS.

.NONE.

.SYNOPSIS AND FORECAST

.CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W AND IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL SE TO S WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 10 FT. N OF 19N W OF
83W E TO SE WINDS 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST CARIBBEAN LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 21N86W. WITHIN 180 NM E AND N QUADRANT WINDS 20
TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NORTH OF
AREA. W OF 84W E TO SE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

.GULF OF MEXICO S OF 24N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W SE WINDS 20 KT.
SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST S OF 26N BETWEEN 82W AND 87W SE WINDS 20 TO 25
KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW...POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 24N90W.
WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 11 FT.

$$
.FORECASTER AL. TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER.


Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 170 Comments: 53544
Wow the near spitting image of pre-ALEX/TD1 at the time
96L


pre-ALEX/TD1



of course the difference would be that 96L has a bigger Wind area that TD1 and has yellow barbs and TD1 just green
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Quoting will45:


Today it is Monday already eastern time
Oh yeah my bad
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.