A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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Quoting AlexEmmett:

one per week


You're saying it is more the norm to have one area of interest per week, yes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3150. xcool
jlp09550 .SOORY 95L DOOM
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
omg not 95L


What? You don't like my 95L? :P
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Quoting aspectre:
3134 centex "Shortwave Sat loop"

My imagination working on too few frames, or does 96L look like its heading toward Cuba.
it does look that way. but i am often wrong.lol:)
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
Quoting chrisale:
QUick question guys.

My eyeballs popped out of my head when I went to the NHC site and saw 4 areas of interest on the graphic.

How common is it for that amount of potential to be out there on July 4? It just seems over the top to me?

one per week
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3134 centex "Shortwave Sat loop"

My imagination working on too few frames, or does 96L look like its heading toward Cuba.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
3145. xcool
omg not 95L
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not common. Not at all.


That is what I was thinking but was hoping to just be overreacting a little.

It also seems like there should be something over on the Cape Verde side of things... but nothing... all up against the West side... just seems... hyper-active, to use a term that has been around this year already, and anomalous.

Fair?
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Quoting chrisale:
QUick question guys.

My eyeballs popped out of my head when I went to the NHC site and saw 4 areas of interest on the graphic.

How common is it for that amount of potential to be out there on July 4? It just seems over the top to me?


It's not common. Not at all.
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Quoting centex:
Give up.

Shortwave Sat loop


Wow. Looks like she's winding up on that. It's gonna be one heck of a week coming up.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
QUick question guys.

My eyeballs popped out of my head when I went to the NHC site and saw 4 areas of interest on the graphic.

How common is it for that amount of potential to be out there on July 4? It just seems over the top to me?
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Hey, look who's winking at us now.

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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


It's way to hot to not have electricity.


UCK! Ya got that right.
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3138. eye
Mostly I lurk on here now, just post every once in awhile, anyways, night folks!
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Quoting sarahjola:
when will we have new model runs? i don't know anything about steering currents. could someone explain to me what the steering currents are right now and what they can become in the next 3 days? also can someone tell me if 96l will pick up forward speed anytime soon? thanks in advance:)

It's way too early to even guess based upon the [steering layers.] Things could easily change within 3-4 days, but for now the stronger Bonnie gets, the more westward she goes, at least for now.
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3136. eye
I remember your post last week (or whenever you do it), you even used italics to try to put emphasis on your point...when you stated this season would not come close to rivaling 2005. Kori, it is ok, it was the calm before the storms when you posted that.
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3135. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3134. centex
Give up.

Shortwave Sat loop
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


Okay what was the point in this post?


lol, I forgot all about this guy. I have him on ignore.

For the record eye, I still haven't said that I expect a season like 2005. I actually stated the complete opposite, if you go back and read my post.

What I said (and you misinterpreted like a child, displaying a complete lack of reading comprehension) was that IF we were to witness a season like 2005, our best chance would be this year.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3132. eye
If it moving pretty fast, if it hits the channel then it will not have to reorganize like Alex had to......but of course, I want it to hit the Penn than zoom whatever so it will be a tropical storm at final landfalland not have the time to reoraganzie. It does not appear to be a slow mover like Alex was.
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Quoting eye:
Well, Kori said a week or so ago (pre Alex) that he thought this season would not even be close to 2005, a little flip flopping, but that is expecting when activity picks up.


Okay what was the point in this post?
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3108 xcool "I wouldn't be suprised see cat 3 96L"

I would. Even as conservative as they are, surely NHC would bump it up to a named storm.
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Now it just says under the floaters
Atlantic Floater 2
96L
it used to say invest hmmmm
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Bless your heart. That's so sweet of you. Lol. And you just may be right. I'm just sitting here in my nice comfy a/c sure would hate to be sitting here without it. :)


It's way to hot to not have electricity.
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3127. centex
Try again.

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3126. eye
Well, Kori said a week or so ago (pre Alex) that he thought this season would not even be close to 2005, a little flip flopping, but that is expecting when activity picks up.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


I'm sure they will :)

Who knows it may not even form into anything


Bless your heart. That's so sweet of you. Lol. And you just may be right. I'm just sitting here in my nice comfy a/c sure would hate to be sitting here without it. :)
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3124. centex
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3123. Grothar
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3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean"

Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 4860
Quoting fire831rescue:


Depends on how the conditions set up. I've just been watching models and reading the blog... Not that I'm anywhere near being a pro, but looking at one of the passes showing the wind field that was posted earlier, wind speed was about 30-35 kts. or about 39-43 mph. There's really not much in the way to stop it from intensifying into a larger storm.


One thing we need to carefully monitor is the aforementioned upper low being depicted in the 12z and 18z GFS model fields. This low is clearly evident at 300 mb (in the model), and enters the Gulf in about 72 hours. While this could certainly act to shear the system, it could also just as easily act to ventilate it.
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


Awe that's ok eatin Pepcid like candy. Lol.


you got wumail...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3119. Grothar
Quoting CoffinWood:


That looks like a giant wasp getting ready to sting someone!


It might bee so. Big system
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Quoting homelesswanderer:


God I hope so.


I'm sure they will :)

Who knows it may not even form into anything
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Quoting KoritheMan:


Intensity seems a bit high to me, but track wise, that's definitely possible. IMO too, of course.


Depends on how the conditions set up. I've just been watching models and reading the blog... Not that I'm anywhere near being a pro, but looking at one of the passes showing the wind field that was posted earlier, wind speed was about 30-35 kts. or about 39-43 mph. There's really not much in the way to stop it from intensifying into a larger storm.
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Quoting louisianaboy444:


You can tell it doesnt have a surface circulation this is why it is still heavly dependent on Diurnal Cycles


Yeah, it's still lacking one. Though I think it is gradually acquiring one.
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Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
Hey guys!

Looks like we may have something to track this week...

Ugh models don't look to good for me right now.. I'm sure they will bounce all around though.



God I hope so.
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Quoting sarahjola:
will 96l be picking up forward speed any time? wed. seems so close. so if it does go to the la/tx coast on wed. does that mean that we will have watches go up on tues.?


The system is moving rather quickly at the moment, upwards of 20 to 25 mph. It should decelerate some as it enters the Gulf, though, to around 10 to 15 mph. I'm thinking that the models are being too quick.
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3113. centex
I posted my LLC postion 83/17.5 maybe a little plus on both but general estimate. Shortwave shows this best. Is this what everyone else is seeing?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


I checked surface and buoy observations this afternoon, and there were no indications of a closed surface circulation.

However, recent satellite animations suggest that some westerly winds are beginning to appear along the south side of 96L. So this could be changing.

Given the low surface pressures in the area, this is not surprising.


You can tell it doesnt have a surface circulation this is why it is still heavly dependent on Diurnal Cycles
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Quoting fire831rescue:
I'm gonna throw caution to the wind and give my two cents worth... Regarding 96L, my prediction is that it tracks north-west then north, making landfall to the west of Grand Isle, LA as a high Cat 2, low Cat 3 hurricane... Just my opinion...


Intensity seems a bit high to me, but track wise, that's definitely possible. IMO too, of course.
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will 96l be picking up forward speed any time? wed. seems so close. so if it does go to the la/tx coast on wed. does that mean that we will have watches go up on tues.?
Member Since: September 10, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1294
I'm gonna throw caution to the wind and give my two cents worth... Regarding 96L, my prediction is that it tracks north-west then north, making landfall to the west of Grand Isle, LA as a high Cat 2, low Cat 3 hurricane... Just my opinion...
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3108. xcool
I wouldn't be suprised see cat 3 96L IMO..LOOK AT ALEX
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Hey guys!

Looks like we may have something to track this week...

Ugh models don't look to good for me right now.. I'm sure they will bounce all around though.

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Quoting Grothar:
96 starting to look mean



That looks like a giant wasp getting ready to sting someone!
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Quoting GPTGUY:
5 years ago...very active. could we be seeing a repeat?

a href="http://" target="_blank">Link


Still not expecting numbers like 2005, to be honest. But if we ever had a decent chance of seeing a repeat of 2005 within the last five years, it would be this year. Without question.
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3104. centex
Brownsville keeping hurricane shutters up.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


hmmmmmm...sorry don't have any alka seltzer. :)


Awe that's ok eatin Pepcid like candy. Lol.
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Quoting sarahjola:
how strong might it be if it does make landfall there on wed.? that is what it says right? wed.? thanks in advance:)

Earlier this evening, computer models indicated anywhere from a 45MPH TS to a 75MPH Cat 1 hurricane.
Member Since: August 25, 2009 Posts: 20 Comments: 6785
3101. GPTGUY
5 years ago...very active. could we be seeing a repeat?

a href="http://" target="_blank">Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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