A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3201. xcool
00z ECMWF MORE N
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Bordonaro:
See ya all later this morning, this blog will be a madhouse later today.


I'm sure it will be.....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:


so another TX/LA?


It looks like it.
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See ya all later this morning, this blog will be a madhouse later today.
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Quoting xcool:



so another TX/LA?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:
everybody leave?

I guess everyone is getting ready for later today.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3194. xcool
DEL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
everybody leave?
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting aspectre:
3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean"
aspectre "Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250)"
3155 Grothar "Do I have to??????"

Nah, that's why I didn't post the loop or a link back to 2483. Viewing is best left for those with an iron constitution and a weak imagination.
Besides, it's creepy enough that 95L has arisen from the dead.


SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3190. xcool
<<<< SLIDELL LA
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting louisianaboy444:


yeah me also....hopefully it changes


Where are you at? (sorry if I've asked before, there are quite a few Louisianians here)
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Quoting fire831rescue:
I'm gonna throw caution to the wind and give my two cents worth... Regarding 96L, my prediction is that it tracks north-west then north, making landfall to the west of Grand Isle, LA as a high Cat 2, low Cat 3 hurricane... Just my opinion...


I'm guessing you live there? LOL

Seriously, it's pretty much impossible to pick a specific place of landfall. Picking a specific state might be a long shot, as well.
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Quoting jlp09550:


Aha, that's right over me. ^_^ Exactly.


yeah me also....hopefully it changes
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3186. xcool
HWRF way to south kick out door
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean"
aspectre "Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250)"
3155 Grothar "Do I have to??????"

Nah, that's why I didn't post the loop or a link back to 2483. Viewing is best left for those with an iron constitution and a weak imagination.
Besides, it's creepy enough that 95L has arisen from the dead.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
where rob


I dont know. Saw him earlier. The HWRF is sending it to him. He needs to follow closely on this too. I guess he got transferred to the day shift. Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting louisianaboy444:
00Z NOGAPS takes it in South Central LA

Link


Aha, that's right over me. ^_^ Exactly.
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00Z NOGAPS takes it in South Central LA

Link
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3181. xcool
where rob
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
homelesswanderer lmao


Lol.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Lol. That one was for laughs. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3178. xcool
homelesswanderer lmao
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
15min ecw


SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TexasHurricane:


Gotta love these smiley faces.....well, in this case unsmiley face....


Yeah. My little sigh guy. :)
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Quoting homelesswanderer:


SmileyCentral.com


Gotta love these smiley faces.....well, in this case unsmiley face....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3173. xcool
15min ecw
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:



the you have it


SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
WHat about the Eastern Atlantic? Why if there is so much activity on the West side, why no activity on the East side in the Cape Verdes? Dry Air? Wind Shear?

Gives you the feeling that given another week or so and a little bit of "luck" (I use that term ironically) we could have areas of interest in every possible place.
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3170. JLPR2
Quoting Bordonaro:
Nothing has changed :o)!!



Well 95L dropped to 10% it was at 20% XD
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What would we do without our scatter backup ...

Looks better up top and in the mid levels.

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3168. xcool



the you have it
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
This is what the HPC said yesterday morning. Before the models moved more east.

TEXAS...
WHILE THE 00Z CANADIAN ADVERTISES A TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVING INTO
THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE 00Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE LOW MEMBERS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY
NO FARTHER NORTH THAN SOUTHERN TEXAS...SHOULD THE CONVECTIVE AREA
IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ORGANIZE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN. HAVE
STUCK WITH THE 03/16Z COORDINATED POINTS BETWEEN HPC/NHC FOR THE
TIME BEING WHICH AIM THE SYSTEM TOWARDS TAMPICO MEXICO BY FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING...BUT THIS TRACK MAY NEED TO BE NUDGED
NORTHWARD.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
Nothing has changed :o)!!

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

thats how it been the last few years and this july we have 4 and the 1st week isnt even up yet
better go back and check 2009...extratropical/subtropical system in early June, then nothing till near mid August...July = 0
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Quoting jlp09550:


It appears none of the computer models are trustable anymore.. at least not this year. They're all smoking something, that's for sure.


Yeah. That could be too. And Like with Alex once they get a good fix on the coc the models should fall in line.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3162. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3161. xcool
ngp to
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Yep back to TX/LA. Well one good thing yesterday everyone was saying the CMC was on drugs. Personally I think the GFS has been smoking that wacky tabacky but thats just my opinion. Lol.



hmmm, interesting....
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3159. Grothar
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Yep back to TX/LA. Well one good thing yesterday everyone was saying the CMC was on drugs. Personally I think the GFS has been smoking that wacky tabacky but thats just my opinion. Lol.



It appears none of the computer models are trustable anymore.. at least not this year. They're all smoking something, that's for sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3157. JLPR2
hmm... so...

...yeah
LOL!
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Quoting chrisale:


You're saying it is more the norm to have one area of interest per week, yes?

thats how it been the last few years and this july we have 4 and the 1st week isnt even up yet
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
3155. Grothar
Quoting aspectre:
3087 Grothar "96L starting to look mean"

Take a look at P451's 2483posting. Even the color bar is shakin' (from 224 to 250)


Do I have to??????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yep back to TX/LA. Well one good thing yesterday everyone was saying the CMC was on drugs. Personally I think the GFS has been smoking that wacky tabacky but thats just my opinion. Lol.

Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3153. xcool
jlp09550 LOL
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting xcool:
jlp09550 .SOORY 95L DOOM


Lol, I just want to see what it does since it's right offshore from me, heading in my direction.
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Quoting AlexEmmett:

one per week


You're saying it is more the norm to have one area of interest per week, yes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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