A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3251. xcool
here 96L Convection refiring
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3250. xcool
CRAZY 95l
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3249. Patrap


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3248. Patrap
Quoting jpritch:
I have a tough decision to make...

My husband is having surgery in MX (Cancun) on Saturday. (It's not optional - he has cancer.) We're scheduled to fly down on Friday. We could fly earlier, but not later. I'm thinking our best bet is to stay with Friday, based on what I'm seeing.


Best of luck with the Whole situation.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3247. xcool
convection is refiring 95L WT--
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3246. xcool
rain here
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3245. Patrap
95L RGB Floater
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3244. jpritch
I have a tough decision to make...

My husband is having surgery in MX (Cancun) on Saturday. (It's not optional - he has cancer.) We're scheduled to fly down on Friday. We could fly earlier, but not later. I'm thinking our best bet is to stay with Friday, based on what I'm seeing.
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3243. xcool
wowow
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3241. Patrap
Quoting jpritch:
Oh! I haven't been able to watch as closely as usual... Is there a timeline for 96L making it to the US coastline, wherever it ends up?


Hard to say without some good runs and G-4 sniff's this far out.

Id say Thursday as a good bet,,maybe sooner if it comes right up thru the Straits and beelines Nw.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3240. xcool
ECMWF take sw la i;m use free website
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3238. jpritch
Oh! I haven't been able to watch as closely as usual... Is there a timeline for 96L making it to the US coastline, wherever it ends up?
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3237. xcool
hmmm
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3236. Patrap
Quoting JLPR2:


Night pat, I hope 95L fizzles out :)


G'night
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3235. Patrap
Yup..sorry.

Making java
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3234. jpritch
Darn. I'll ask again in the morning.
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3233. jpritch
Pat, are you still here? I know you're watching 95L because of proximity, but I have a question about the speed of 96.
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3232. xcool
you know better
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3231. xcool
COME NOW ROB .
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3230. leo305
pressures keep falling with 95L too..


1019 when it was declared.. 1013 yesterday, 1011 this morning
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3229. JLPR2
Quoting Patrap:
G'night..


Night pat, I hope 95L fizzles out :)
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3227. leo305
DMAX is helping 95L..

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3226. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3225. Patrap
G'night..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3224. xcool
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well, nite all. check back in tomorrow...will be busy in here I'm sure.

Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3222. Patrap
One red Pixel in the JSL Image.

We can watch how it trends from this point.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3221. xcool
05/0545 UTC 16.9N 83.4W T1.0/1.0 96L -- Atlantic
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3220. xcool
ROB THE YOU FRIEND ECMWF
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3219. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3218. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
It seems 96L is losing some convection, but I think it's only temporary and it may be part of its organization process.
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3216. xcool
00z UKMET TAKE LA
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3215. Patrap
Not for another 24
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting TexasHurricane:


kinda surprised that hasn't made it on land yet...


Same.
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3213. Patrap
95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3212. xcool



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Quoting Patrap:


kinda surprised that hasn't made it on land yet...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
3210. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
3209. Patrap
Hurricane Cindy 5 years ago tonight



Current radar 95L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting btwntx08:
ok i come in and now its quiet wow


yeah, it is quiet....almost too quiet.
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
I'm heading off to bed. Family coming over early tomorrow. Here's the latest animation of 96L from the GHCC satellite. Goodnight.



EDIT: Whoops, accidentally deleted my animation files. It'll be back in a minute.
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3204. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 414 Comments: 125613
Quoting homelesswanderer:


That's all for me Y'all. Night xcool, Bord.Tex we may be busy here coming up. See y'all tomorrow.


Nite homeless...
Member Since: July 2, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 2811
Quoting TexasHurricane:


so another TX/LA?


That's all for me Y'all. Night xcool, Bord.Tex we may be busy here coming up. See y'all tomorrow.
Member Since: August 15, 2008 Posts: 10 Comments: 3665
3201. xcool
00z ECMWF MORE N
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.