A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3301. Patrap
Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought Cindy was on July 6?

I might be wrong, though.


Night of 5-6 July see post #3269
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
Quoting Patrap:


Yup..dat they do seems.


Cindy was 5 years ago tonight..


Go fig-yer


I thought Cindy was on July 6?

I might be wrong, though.
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3299. Patrap
Quoting KoritheMan:


For some reason, low pressure systems/tropical cyclones always seem to rapidly organize just prior to landfall. a la Isidore and Gustav. 'Tis weird.


Yup..dat they do seems.


Cindy was 5 years ago tonight..


Go fig-yer
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3298. emguy
95L looks good on the IR. Bad news for development though, the Shortwave Loop shows air (banding of clouds if you will) moving away from the low in the NW quadrant. The system has nice vorticity to the SW,SE, and NE, but remains embedded in a larger non tropical feature. Any quadrant where air is moving away from a low is a bad sign and this action is growing more pronounced with time. Actually, radar is now starting to support this too. Where this comes ashore, some good weather. Probably some gusty squalls, but a dead stick from the standpoint of further tropical development. Had this thing truely been able to seperate from the larger pattern, this would have had the potential to become one of those true "vort cyclones" I've referenced in the last two weeks, but this baby is out of time and will not do anything more.

Down the raod, 95L will be long gone. So highly unlikely that 95L will have any influence on 96L.
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Quoting Patrap:
New frame is still increasing in Diameter and Symmetry



For some reason, low pressure systems/tropical cyclones always seem to rapidly organize just prior to landfall. a la Isidore and Gustav. 'Tis weird.
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Quoting bakers:
it appears good on satellite and that is all. no depth, no closed low. few models only show slight generation of the wave. many show none.


It has good vorticity from 850 mb upward to 500 mb, based on CIMSS vorticity analysis.

You're correct about the lack of a closed low, but that too will probably change soon.

Many models also stubbornly refused to develop Alex initially.
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3295. Patrap
New frame is still increasing in Diameter and Symmetry



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3294. Patrap
Quoting SALAMETGRAD:


Interestingly, HPC continues to analize a warm/stationary front with this low... However, I see no evidence of a frontal inversion on the 00z lix sounding.



ThetaE indicates a boundary right along the coast; however, that is likely the land/sea contrast.



I believe you and the Sounding are correct.

Its detached and on itsa own now.

I think the Radar return says the same

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3293. xcool
lol
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Quoting Patrap:
New Surface Map



Interestingly, HPC continues to [analyze] a warm/stationary front with this low... However, I see no evidence of a frontal inversion on the 00z lix sounding.



ThetaE indicates a boundary right along the coast; however, that is likely the land/sea contrast.



EDIT [Corrected spelling error] What can I say? It's late...
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3291. Patrap
.."We're so Sorry, Uncle Albert"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3290. Patrap
New Surface Map

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3289. Patrap
95L Dvorak loop
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3288. xcool
aspectre bye iknow who you are
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3287. Patrap
0715 UTC Rainbow Image

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
errrm... xcool, it's the same ol' same ol' posted under his 15th or so pen-name -- contradicts something he knows was recently discussed (in this case, 96L existed pre-wave and is now post-wave) while also contradicting the overwhelming prevalence of opinions without giving cause or reason...
...in hope that someone will call him a moron or otherwise speak vituperatively.
And we all know his following steps...
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Quoting Patrap:
The Guidance for 95 in Nnw as shown by clicking the MSLP box here.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop


Thanks - I saw some models and they were mostly pointed toward SE Texas.

Link
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3284. Patrap
The problem 95L presents isnt its impact so much,,its going to be Minimal at best..but the weakness it may leave behind for 96L to follow.


Stay Tuned this week early.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3283. Patrap
The Guidance for 95 iz Nnw as shown by clicking the MSLP box here.

Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3282. xcool
Interestingconvection
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Quoting xcool:
PAT KEEP EYE ON 95L


Okay... just saying... IF something were to develop from 95l...

... the stronger it gets - which direction is it most likely to go?

I'd rather Hous/Galv NOT get hit by two storms coming from different directions, but... if Houston getting hit meant that the Deepwater Horizon group could get back to work quicker and if there would be less oil damage if it hit Houston... then I say...

...bring it on.
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3280. Patrap
3 rings in the Dvorak with the Inner a Butterfly pattern,,indicative of the Up pulse continuing and building.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3279. xcool
hmmm
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3278. Patrap
The convective burst continues to grow.


New frame.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3277. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Mobile, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI


Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3276. xcool
95L lot of dry air today now wow
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3275. Patrap
The next Surface Map may show it detached.




Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3274. xcool
PAT KEEP EYE ON 95L
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3273. Patrap
Quoting weathersp:
Somthing is going on under 95L....

West wind shift followed by big spike in winds.





We've seen this before.
A Baroclinic Low..with Shear and dry air abating fast.

Now the flue iz open and the engine is starting to crank
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3272. xcool
95L TD IMO IMO
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Somthing is going on under 95L....

West wind shift followed by big spike in winds.

Wind Direction:


Wind Speed:(kts)
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3270. xcool
95L



Wind Direction (WDIR): SW ( 220 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 29.1 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.91 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.0 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 85.8 °F




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3269. Patrap
Hurricane Cindy 5 years ago tonight



Current radar 95L

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3268. xcool
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3267. Patrap
I said earlier last evening that 3 am would be the witching hour for 95L.

That Dry air is off to the NW now and boom.

Climo is a reality.

NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3266. xcool
LOOK AT 95L spin OH WOW
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3265. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 128766
3264. xcool
YEAH 95L
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95L is looking pretty good tonight, its convection has refired and a shell oil platform south of the center has recorded a quick wind shift from the east to west over the last few hours. The spin is decent on radar too with cloud tops @ 40 kft..

Shell Oil Platform OBS
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3262. xcool
ANYWAY
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As I sit here in Port Fourchon, LA on a supply vessel waiting for 95L to dissipate, I can only hope my eyes and gut are both wrong, and
96L fizzles..but it sure looks like it will be TD #2 soon.....Hope not...we are trying to get back out to Deepwater Horizon spill and skim up more oil..been shut down since Alex.....
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3260. bakers
it appears good on satellite and that is all. no depth, no closed low. few models only show slight generation of the wave. many show none.
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3259. xcool



Mon Jul 5 03:04:38 EDT 2010
WHXX01 KWBC 050643

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0643 UTC MON JUL 5 2010

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL962010) 20100705 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
100705 0600 100705 1800 100706 0600 100706 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 83.3W 19.6N 85.1W 21.6N 86.8W 23.7N 88.3W
BAMD 17.3N 83.3W 18.4N 84.6W 19.5N 85.7W 20.4N 86.9W
BAMM 17.3N 83.3W 18.8N 84.7W 20.3N 86.0W 21.8N 87.3W
LBAR 17.3N 83.3W 18.2N 84.1W 19.3N 85.5W 20.5N 87.2W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 33KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
100707 0600 100708 0600 100709 0600 100710 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.4N 89.9W 28.2N 93.0W 29.8N 95.0W 29.9N 96.1W
BAMD 21.2N 88.1W 22.1N 91.3W 22.6N 95.2W 22.9N 99.5W
BAMM 23.0N 88.7W 25.2N 92.2W 26.8N 95.3W 27.4N 98.1W
LBAR 21.8N 89.1W 24.9N 93.0W 27.5N 96.5W 29.1N 97.6W
SHIP 38KTS 49KTS 57KTS 61KTS
DSHP 37KTS 48KTS 57KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 83.3W DIRCUR = 320DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 82.6W DIRM12 = 323DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 81.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 75NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1010MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 120NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM




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3258. xcool
BUL SHI .96L TD COME SOON
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Quoting bakers:
96L will remain no more than a strong wave.





What is your basis for this?
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3256. bakers
96L will remain no more than a strong wave.



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3255. xcool
Models flip-flopping. BEEP
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I don't understand the models. They seem to be going way too fast with this (track-wise).
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3252. jpritch
Quoting Patrap:


Best of luck with the Whole situation.


Thanks. I think it will be okay. It's just hard to deal with another layer of worry. We're flying from Austin through Houston to Cancun, so it's probably in the cone at this point, but it sounds like the storm is likely to be well inland before we go.
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3251. xcool
here 96L Convection refiring
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.