A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

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My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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3351. IKE
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Hmm...96 took a step backwards overnight.


Yes it did. NHC may lower the odds on it on the next TWO....oh my....

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3350. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Ike, stormpetrol


Morning.
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Morning Doug. Yes storm, we are starting to get some from 95 now here in Mobile. I here the thunder in the distance and is raining just a little. Bout time though, we need it.
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Hmm...96 took a step backwards overnight.
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G'morn folks. 95 is still spinning like a top I see. That is an interesting little system.
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Quoting msgambler:
Good morning Ike, stormpetrol

Good Morning, well we finally have a lull in the squalls and rain here, still a howling of the wind though.
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Good morning Ike, stormpetrol
Member Since: February 27, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1125
Station 42056
NDBC
Location: 19.874N 85.059W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 5 Jul 2010 08:50:00 UTC
Winds: SSW (200°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 11.7 kt
Significant Wave Height: 6.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 9 sec
Mean Wave Direction: ESE (112°)
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.81 in and steady
Air Temperature: 79.0 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
Water Temperature: 84

Could we finally have a closed circulation with 96L despite its lopsided appearance this morning?
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Station 42057
NDBC
Location: 16.834N 81.501W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 5 Jul 2010 08:50:00 UTC
Winds: ESE (110°) at 21.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.87 in and falling
Air Temperature: 82.4 F
Dew Point: 75.4 F
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3342. ssmate
From that shortwave loop it apppears 96L goes straight into Cuba.
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3341. IKE
96L....

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3340. GetReal
Quoting btwntx08:
i see 95L putting on a show this am its getting to close to land so no development expected...95L chose the wrong time to this thing


You are mistakenly discounting the fact that 95L is a very, very small, and most mportantly compact system. therefore it does not take much for these type systems to quickly ramp up... Also plaese note that 95L has not moved much, at all, over the last 8 hours, and has some of the warmest SST in the GOM to work with...

I am nto saying that 95L will ever amount to anything... It just can't be written off.
Member Since: July 4, 2005 Posts: 204 Comments: 8898
3339. IKE
Quoting ssmate:
That would be great IKE. What's your confidence in this solution?


ECMWF is the superior model. Hard to go against it.
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3338. ssmate
That would be great IKE. What's your confidence in this solution?
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3337. IKE
Actually that 00Z ECMWF doesn't show much through July 15th in the Atlantic. Takes 96L onshore in southern Louisiana as a dying system.
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3336. IKE
Operational 6Z GFS @ 36 hours....

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Inre my last response in 3328, here's the link:
3134 centex "Shortwave Sat loop"
So was 96L heading toward Cuba?
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I see a much more definitive circulation with 96L this morning on shortwave ir loops around 17.5n/82.8w, even though it has lost a lot of convection and looks somewhat lopsided in structure compared to last night 96L might just being through motions for a strong comeback later today.
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Good Morning 95L

05/0545 UTC 27.7N 90.6W T1.0/1.0 95L -- Atlantic

Member Since: January 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 529
3331. Patrap
Im feeling nappish.

Back round 9am.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3330. Patrap
95L getting Juicer in all quads by the frame this morning

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
If we're lucky, 96L's burning off energy pushing against the Cuban mountains. Someone posted a link last night that I thought showed 96L heading toward Cuba. But it coulda been just an illusion from watching a loop with too few frames.

I'll check the back pages to see if I can find it.
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3326. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
What went up..seems to have fallen down and stumbled a tad.


Pressure went up.

00Z ECMWF has almost lost it.

The way some were talking yesterday afternoon, I thought for sure this was going to be a TD by now.
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3325. Patrap
95L Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3324. Patrap
Quoting ktymisty:
3312. Patrap 8:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010


Patrap, your posts are really going well this year :) Thank you

/lurking for years
//posting every now and then


Tyvm..

G' morning
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3323. Patrap
What went up..seems to have fallen down and stumbled a tad.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3322. IKE
What happened to 96L? Pressure up 1 mb....winds down from 30 to 25 mph? Link

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Hey everyone. Good morning (or night in my case, since I still haven't gone to sleep). I've started up a new weather blog outside on blogger, obviously outside of weather underground. Am I allowed to link to that site on here?

The rules say as long as it's non-commercial, which it is. It's just a fun personal weather blog I started up for my friends. Just wanted to share it here, but don't want to break any rules in doing so. Thanks!
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3312. Patrap 8:34 AM GMT on July 05, 2010


Patrap, your posts are really going well this year :) Thank you

/lurking for years
//posting every now and then
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96L actually looks like it's spinning itself apart to me. Not a total surprise, but we'll have to see if it can reorganize itself in the daylight hours somehow. I'm wondering now if it's not more likely to be the "C" or "D" storm, than Bonnie, if it ever gets a name at all.

Hopefully, they'll still be sending in the HH's this afternoon, as then we'll know a lot more.

Jo
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Good Morning, just woke up and took a look at 96L, doesn't look as good structure wise as it did early last night same to have moved more ENE/NE but it does have a more definitive spin, its structur just looks more lopsided, still heavy squalls here in Grand Cayman though. Ck in later going to try get some more shut eye.
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3317. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3316. Patrap
.."In the Homeland, we'd never see"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3315. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
New Orleans, Echo Tops Range 124 NMI



Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3314. emguy
Quoting Patrap:
Interesting to note the Banding becoming evident the last frames.



Image notes and observations: No true banding features here, but a nice thunderstorm complex that is moderate to strong in intensity. The radar continues to show everything on the NW side moving away from the main thunderstorm complex (95L itself). In fact, the thunderstorm complex does not complete a full "closed" loop at all. The distance of 95L is far enough away to be viewing the mid levels of the atmosphere here. While there is barolclinic lifting and vorticity, 95L lacks a mid level circulation, let alone a surface reflection. No doubt there are westerly winds on the south side of 95L, only problem is that easterly and ESErly winds exist in the NW side. With this environment in place, 95L is in a poor surface environment and further development shall not occur.
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3313. Patrap
95L Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3312. Patrap
I am sleeping aint I...?

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Patrap,

Go to bed. I have an excuse. I'm at work!!
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Early Good Morning. Winds have die down a bit in my parts so gonna try to land shark a few trout or reds at sunrise....That is a persistent little pulse south of LA but NHC is not giving it a chance (lots of sheer) and our SW Caribbean friend is trying to get a groove one. Our buds off the Bahamas and Antilles don't look so hot. Most interestng thing for me right now is the really low sheer between Africa and the Antilles just waiting to welcome the right CV wave to develop before hittng the Antilles......I don't think we are going to be stuck in a Southern track SW Carib-Mexico "Alex type" track for much longer. Give it about one month and the tracks will start to move to the North towards the Greater Antilles abd beyond.....Have and Great Day Folks.
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3309. Patrap
.."yeah the Invest's on the Run"..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Whose staying up for the TWO
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3288 xcool "aspectre bye I know who you are"

Then you're ahead of me, cuz I'm still learning.
I'll still enjoy your postings (when you aren't gettin' riled by the same ol' same ol')...
...so THANKS for all your good work, I really do appreciate it.
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3306. Patrap
Quoting KoritheMan:


Oh, I see. My bad.

Anyway, I'm going to bed now. 'Twas a great July 4th for me, but was also very tiring.

Good night Pat, and others. See you guys tomorrow.


G'night..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
3305. Patrap
Interesting to note the Banding becoming evident the last frames.

Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
Quoting Patrap:


Night of 5-6 July see post #3269


Oh, I see. My bad.

Anyway, I'm going to bed now. 'Twas a great July 4th for me, but was also very tiring.

Good night Pat, and others. See you guys tomorrow.
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3303. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435
I would honestly be more concerned with this system if the dry air wasn't in such close proximity. However, I must say convection is holding its own at this point. I still don't think it will develop into much but it's something in the backyard to watch until the DMAX is over.
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3301. Patrap
Quoting KoritheMan:


I thought Cindy was on July 6?

I might be wrong, though.


Night of 5-6 July see post #3269
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 427 Comments: 129435

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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